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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 25 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 9
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - A good number of breakouts with some interesting plays. However, bulls be selective. Stock market holds up trend on a daily basis, but has turned bearish on the weekly.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - APOG - ABOVE AVERAGE |
APOG, based in Minneapolis, makes glass products for buildings. Annual revenues: $689 million. APOG's stock breaks out today from a six-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new five-year high. So far today, APOG is trading 224,943 shares. Its average daily volume is 198,000 shares. 
TTD highlighted APOG as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
APOG's stock spiked higher in the morning (see 10-minute chart). That enabled it to clear its base easily. It did edge above the breakpoint in the prior session.
In the afternoon, APOG drifted back a bit but held over its breakpoint line. The stock's price move was modest, but enough to enable it to clear the base.
APOG's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $25.79 on Thursday to as high as $26.42 Friday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 3,644 shares crossed the tape at $26.42. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $25.60. 
APOG develops glass products and services.
The company is has two units: Architectural products and services which design, engineer, fabricate, install, maintain and renovate the walls of glass and windows comprising the outside skin of commercial buildings.
Businesses in this segment are: Viracon, a fabricator of coated, high-performance architectural glass for global markets, Harmon, Inc., a full-service building glass installation, maintenance and renovation firm, Wausau Window and Wall Systems, a maker of custom aluminum window systems and curtainwall, and Linetec, a paint and anodizing finisher of window frames and PVC shutters.
The large-scale optical segment consists of Tru Vue, a glass and acrylic maker for the custom picture framing market and a producer of optical thin film coatings for consumer electronics displays.
APOG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 100% versus a 14% gain for the S&P 500 index.
APOG's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 5 back in 2000 to a peak of 30 by 2007, the peak in the bull market. The stock then fell back to 5 by 2008 during the bear market. It has since stormed back an is in position to challenge its all-time high. 
APOG's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 16 in September to 25 by January.
The stock put down a tight flat base above its rising 50-day moving average line. The breakout today looks modest but is okay.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend, although it has backed off a bit recently.
This fiscal year ending February the Street is forecasting a 212% surge in net to 69 cents a share from 22 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 37. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to fiscal 2014 ending in February, analysts predict a 40% gain in net to 96 cents a share from the anticipated 69 cents in fiscal 2013.
Near-term APOG is poised to show powerful earnings gains.
Net for the fiscal fourth quarter ending in February net should rise 76% and then in the first quarter of 2013 jump 156%. That kind of acceleration in quarterly earnings growth is often a driver to send a stock higher.
Net for the fiscal fourth quarter should come in at 19 cents a share, up from 11 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 22 cents a share. The company has topped the consensus estimate the past seven quarters by 2 to 8 cents a share. 
Going out to the fiscal first quarter ending in May profits are projected to leap 156% to 15 cents a share from 6 cents a year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting APOG for a move to 32 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed tight at 24.
TTD rates APOG a very good intermediate-term play due to its solid earnings outlook.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund buyer recently was the 4-star rated Royce Value Plus SVC Fund which purchased 764,766 shares. It has a 2.1% stake.
The largest fund holder is 3-star rated Franklin Small Cap Value Fund with a 3.2% stake.
APOG has 28.5 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 87% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders have been buyers around $9 using stock options. They were sellers around $20. Currently, 3 analysts follow the stock, 2 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Apogee Enterprises Inc. - (APOG) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AIRM - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TIF - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MGA - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CRM - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today. Stock market continues to hold up trend. Bears be selective. TTD's short from Thursday was Procera Networks Inc. (PKT) at 11.93. The stock has declined to 11.52 so far today and is working well for bears.
EVEP, based in Houston, operates oil and gas properties in the U.S. Annual revenues: $277 million. EVEP's stock falls sharply today on heavy volume. The company reported a surprise fourth quarter loss. So far today, EVEP is trading 1.1 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 372,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
TTD highlighted EVEP as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
The company reported a fourth quarter loss of 23 cents a share compared with a profit of 27 cents a year ago. The Street was anticipating a profit.
The stock gapped lower in the morning and hit a low of 50. It then staged a small lift during the afternoon.
The stock's tape action shows heavy institutional selling pressure. The recent block trades show the stock's price dropping from $57.10 to $51.25.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 10,000 shares crossed the tape at $53.25. That was down sharply from the prior block at $56.01.
EVEP is an upstream Master Limited Partnership that acquires and operates oil and gas properties in the U.S.
Its properties are in the Appalachian Basin, primarily in Ohio and West Virginia, and in the Monroe Field in Northern Louisiana.
This year, analysts are forecasting a recovery in earnings to $1.33 a share from 32 cents a share in 2012.
However, the stock has momentum to the downside. The daily chart shows the breakdown. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a steady down trend now. That shows consistent selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting EVEP for a decline to 45 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 54.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EVEP - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
