Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 25, 2019 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Friday - March 1, 2019
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 9
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Bulls very selective list of breakouts. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - Market averages remain bullish in all time sectors.
Comment - TTD suggests bulls still be alert for leaders breaking out. The market looks to be going into a consolidation soon.
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Friday - STRA, CORE, FL, TGNA and SSP.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PLNT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
PLNT, based in Newington, N.H., is a franchiser and operator of fitness centers in the U.S. Annual revenues: $430 million. PLNT drives higher Friday and breaks out from its eight-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
TTD sees more on the upside.
So far today, PLNT is trading 2 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.5 million shares.
TTD featured PLNT as an accumulation play earlier in the week when it reported strong earnings for the fourth quarter.
PLNT spiked higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint line. The stock backed off slightly. However, it then trended steadily higher the rest of the day.
It closed near its high for the session. That is bullish.
Last Tuesday, PLNT reported fourth quarter net of 34 cents a share, topping the Street consensus at 32 cents a share.
That compares with 24 cents the year before. The highest estimate for the quarter was at 36 cents a share.
Tape Action
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $58.78 late on Thursday to as high as $61.17 near the close.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 17,060 shares crossed the tape at $59.41.
That was up from the prior block at $58.78 on 153,116 shares.
Near the close Friday, a massive block of 194,120 shares crossed at $61.17 That came within an up tick block sequence at $60.98.
Business
PLNT operates franchised and company-owned stores. It also sells equipment.
The franchise segment covers operations in the U.S., Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Canada.
The company-owned stores operate in the U.S. and Canada. The equipment segment covers the sale of equipment to franchisee-owned stores.
PLNT has 10.5 million members and 1,432 stores of which 1,261 were franchised and 58 company owned.
Charts
PLNT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock climbing 62% versus a 3% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were buyers using stock options. The price was not disclosed. They were sellers at $50 to $48 a share the past few months.
PLNT's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in late 2015 at $16.71.
The stock then fell back to its all-time low of $13.23 by early 2016. The decline was due in part to a selloff in the stock market in early 2016.
Since then, PLNT has been driving steadily higher making a fourfold from its low.
PLNT's daily chart shows the stock climbing from around $46 back in October to a peak near $59 by January.
The stock put down a tight, flat base.
The stock had two intraday breakouts but then fell back later in the day.
However, Friday, PLNT breaks out again, but this time holds strong ending in the day near its high for the session.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
Looking out to this year, analysts predict an 16% increase in net to $1.45 a share from the 1.25 for 2018.
Net for the first quarter of 2019 should climb 15% to 31 cents a share from 27 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 34 cents a share.
The company has topped the quarterly Street consensus estimate the past 14 quarters. That is impressive.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PLNT for a move to $75 within the next few months, or sooner.
A protective stop can be placed near $57.
TTD rates PLNT a good intermediate-term play.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish. PLNT has scored good gains off its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bullish. PLNT rose 8 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Bullish. PLNT has averaged a gain of 2.3% in March and a gain of 3.1% in April the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
25% |
6/5/2018 | 41.43 | 51.94 | 8/10/2018 |
18% |
2/23/2018 | 35.12 | 41.45 | 5/7/2018 |
27% |
11/3/2017 | 27.40 | 34.821 | 12/28/2017 |
10% |
8/10/2017 | 24.40 | 27 | 9/27/2017 |
10% |
6/13/2017 | 21.92 | 24.25 | 6/23/2017 |
38% | 5/11/2016 | 16.48 | 22.81 | 8/23/2016 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Planet Fitness Inc. (PLNT) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DCO - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AGO - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FISV - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WLDN - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts but some interesting plays. Aggressive bears can be venturesome.
WBA, based in Deerfield, Il., operates pharmacies and provides other health services. Annual revenues: $131.5 billion. WBA's stock falls sharply Friday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, WBA 10.3 million shares, double its average daily volume of 4.9 million.
WBA received negative comment from brokerage analysts at Baird.
The stock fell sharply in the morning and undercut key technical support.
WBA touched an intraday low of $66.07 in the early afternoon. It lifted slightly in the final hours.
Tape Action
WBA's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $71.19 in the prior session to as low as $66.61.
A key bearish trade came near the close Friday when a massive block of 546,859 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $66.61.
That was down from the prior block at $67.23 on 16,904 shares.
Business
WBA operates pharmacy stores in the U.S. and international. It also has a drug wholesale business.
It operates Walgreen stores. Its retail pharmacy International unit is Alliance Boots pharmacy-led health and beauty stores.
Earnings:
This fiscal year ending in August analysts are forecasting an 8% increase in net to $6.52 a share from the $6.02 the year before.
However, net for the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending in February is expected to show just a 1% rise in net to $1.74 a share from the $1.73 the year before. The company did beat the Street quarterly estimate nine out of the past 10 quarters, and met it in one.
Charts:
WBA's stock peaked out most recently at $86 in early December. The stock fell hard down to $65 by late December. It tried to rally, but is now rolling over again.
WBA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 4% versus a gain of 3% for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting WBA for a decline to $58 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $69.50.
Suitability: Average Bears.
TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. - WBA rose 2 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bearish. - WBA averaged a decline of 1.3% in March and a decline of 0.6% in April the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WBA - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)