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Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - March 2, 2009

                                          By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Total Buy Breakouts today - 2

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull's Strategy -  Just 2 breakouts today. Stock market falls sharply today hitting a 12-year low.  Bulls must remain patient and selective.  As we said recently, the daily breach of support indicated potential for more on the downside.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Unfavorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Today's Feature Breakout Stock

Applied Signal Technology Inc. (APSG) - 20.40, up 1.28 - Breakpoint 19.90

Quarterly Profit Growth to Accelerate, TTD Targets 26

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - APSG - ABOVE AVERAGE

   APSG, based in Sunnyvale, Ca., designs reconnaissance equipment used to collect telecommunication signals. Annual revenues: $190 million. APSG is one of the few breakout stocks today as the stock market continues to trend lower. TTD highlighted APSG last week. So far today, the stock is trading 418,794 shares, four times its normal daily volume of 112,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted APSG at our midsession show on the Web today.

  TTD's clip shows the big block trades the past few sessions. A key trade was a big block of 19,425 shares crossing at $20.30. That was higher than the prior big block at $19.69. It was also the highest price paid for a big block in sometime.

  TTD said last week that APSG was a potential breakout if it could overcome key upside resistance at $19.90.

  The stock moved higher in the morning. However, it is weakening a bit as we turn toward the close.

  APSG's products include equipment that monitors wireless telephone, microwave, ship-to-shore, and military radio frequency transmissions.

 Computer-based systems are used to evaluate signals to identify those containing relevant information; and complete signal reconnaissance systems.

  TTD's performance chart shows APSG as a leading stock having appreciated 60% the past 12 months. The stock easily outperformed the S&P 500 index which is down 46% the past 12 months.  

    TTD's long-term chart shows APSG with a big run to 40 back in 2004. Afterwards the stock moved lower missing the market's bull market phase. However, it is now starting to turn up.

 The stock set up its base after rallying from 13 to 20. The base is a cup-and-handle base. The breakout today looks good.

 The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend. It shows there has been no serious underlying selling pressure.

  APSG's net for the fiscal year ending October 30 should climb 25% to 79 cents a share from 63 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 24. TTD sees that as reasonable.

  Going out to fiscal 2010, the Street looks for a 16% gain in net to 92 cents a share.

  The company posted strong net on Feb. 24 for the fiscal first quarter. Net soared to 27 cents a share from 12 cents a year ago. Revenues rose 6%. The company cited a more efficient operating structure for the big jump in net.

  Analysts expect net for the fiscal second quarter to increase 16% and then in the fiscal third quarter 34%. That would be a modest acceleration in quarterly profits. Net for the fiscal second quarter should come in at 19 cents a share, up from 16 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 21 cents a share. TTD sees chances for an upside surprise.

  Strategy Opinion: APSG's breakout today just clears the base. However, the weakness in the general stock market makes TTD a bit cautious. We suggest just scaling into APSG.

 TTD is targeting APSG for a move to 26. A protective stop can be placed near 17.90 after a breakout. TTD rates APSG a good intermediate-term play provided earnings growth meets expectations.

  Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Heartland Value Plus Fund with a big 5.4% stake. It was a recent buyer of 50,000 shares. Also, 5-star rated Intrepid Small Cap Fund added 35,000 shares. APSG has just 12 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 2.9 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Not much activity lately. Seven analysts follow the stock, 2 have a buy, the same as three months ago.   APSG's chart shows the stock rallying from 13 in November to almost 20. It then pulled back to consolidate. It has held nicely against the stock market's downdraft. It just needs to get over $19.90 to breakout.

                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.


TTD's Profile Rating

Applied Signal Technology Inc.  - (APSG)

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term     YES
Price Daily Spread   YES
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term   YES  
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success     YES
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 10 1 3

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.

Charts of Breakout Stocks  

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 20 - the max

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.

Bear Side -  Maximum list of shorts today as stock market falls sharply to new 12-year low. Bears continue to be aggressive in that trend is in your favor.   TTD's short from Friday was  GMX Resources Inc. (GMXR) - 16.86, off 2.32. Today, GMXR falls 3.19 to 14.06 for a great 18% gain for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN) - 43.34, off 2.46

Profits to Fall 55% in Fiscal 2009, TTD Sees Drop to Decline to 35

  BEN, San Mateo, Ca., provides money management services for institutional and individual investors. Annual Revenues: $5.3 billion. BEN's stock falls sharply today making a five year low. With earnings growth to slow significantly this fiscl year, TTD sees more on the downside. So far today BEN is trading 2.5 million shares. Its average daily volume is 2.6 million shares.

  BEN fell at the opening and worked lower until about mid-day. It stabilized and then lifted a bit in the afternoon.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $47.85 to $43.30. The tape is showing heavy institutional selling pressure. A key trade took place on Feb. 27 when a big block of 171,100 shares crossed at $45.80.

  The company's  investment products are marketed under the Franklin, Templeton, Mutual Series, Bissett, Darby Overseas, and Fiduciary Trust banners.

 At the end of fiscal 2008, product offerings included equity (52% of AUM), fixed income (28%), hybrid (18%), and money market funds (1%). Global and international strategies accounted for around half of the firm's investments.

  With the drop in financial markets, analysts expect BEN to show a 55% plung in profits for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 to $2.99 a share from $6.68 a year ago. Net for the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending March 30 should drop 52%.

  TTD's daily chart shows BEN trying to trace out a bottom after a fall from 100 to around 50. However, the stock breaks below key support triggering a short. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has rolled over.

  TTD is targeting BEN for a drop to 35 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed at 46.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)