By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 21
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list very selective. Stock market holds near-term up trend. Bulls be careful.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NPTN - ABOVE AVERAGE
NPTN, based in San Jose, Ca., makes hybrid photonic integrated optoelectronic modules and subsystems for bandwidth-intensive, high-speed communications networks. Annual revenues: $329 million. NPTN breaks out from a 10-week, cup-and-handle base Wednesday. The move carries the stock to a 5-year high.
TTD highlighted the stock as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
NPTN was also featured earlier this month as a stock to accumulate.
So far today, NPTN is trading a heavy 3.7 million shares, five times its average daily volume of 691,000 shares.
The push higher came when the company reported net for the fourth quarter of 16 cents a share. That topped the Street estimate of 10 cents a share.
The stock pushed higher and cleared its breakpoint line
The stock reached an intraday peak of 13.25 in the morning. It then pulled back to around 12.50 and trended sideways the rest of the session.
The stock's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $11.59 in the prior session to as high as $12.88 in the morning.
A key bullish trade came late on Tuesday when a block of 19,845 shares crossed the tape at $12.24.
That was up from the prior block trade at $11.59 on 26,165 shares.
In the morning, there was a big block of 116,574 shares that crossed at $12.15.
That was down sharply from the prior trade at $12.29 on 564 shares.
So, the tape did show some institutional selling in the morning.
NPTN's products include transmitter, receiver, and switching products for 100 gigabits per second optical transmission applications over distances of 2 to 2,000 kilometers.
It also makes products for optical communications networks and other applications, where the networks operate at speeds less than 100Gbps; and optical components for coherent systems, which manipulate light to encode ten times or more the amount of information in the same wavelength channel than is possible with traditional methods.
NPTN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating a sensational 250% versus a 3% decline in the S&P 500 index.
One can see heavy insider buying taking place back in June. (Green bars)
The stock moved a bit higher as it continued to outperform the market.
However, its performance did back off later.
Nevertheless, it has picked up again and is easily outperforming the general market with just light insider selling so far.
NPTN's long-term chart shows the stock coming public back in 2011 and climbing to a peak of 20.94.
The stock eventually fell back hard to around 4 by 2012. It rallied to around 9 in 2013 but fell back again - this time to around two.
Since then NPTN has been trending higher nicely.
NPTN's daily chart shows the stock in a cup-and-handle basing pattern between 8 and 11.
The stock's breakout is impressive coming with a widening of the daily spread.
That shows ease of price movement higher.
The stock CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is in an up trend.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is showing good buying in recent weeks.
Analysts are forecasting 34% jump in net this year to 46 cents a share from 34 cents in 2015.
Net for the first quarter is forecasted to be down 33% to 4 cents a share from 6 cents a year ago.
However, the company has topped the Street estimate three out of the past six out of seven quarters by a wide margin. So, there is a good chance for a big upside surprise.
Earnings for the second quarter is expected to rise 30% to 13 cents a share from 10 cents a year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 15.50.
A protective stop can be placed near 11 giving it room.
TTD rates NPTN a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Good. One of the largest fund buyers recently was the 4-star rated Vanguard US Value Inv. Fund which purchased 80,200 shares. It has a 0.8% stake.
Also, the 4-star rated TFS Market Neutral Fund was a recent purchaser of 103,454 shares. It has a 0.4% stake.
NPTN has 41 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 57% of the stock and insiders have 31%.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been light sellers of the stock recently. They were big buyers several months ago.
Currently, 5 analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
NPTN has a book value of $5.20 a share.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
NeoPhotonics Corp. - (NPTN)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ROST - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BWXT - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WOR - BELOW AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VRA - BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks Wednesday. Stock market holds current near-term up trend. Bears be patient.
PAHC, based in Teaneck, N.J., sells animal health and mineral nutrition products. Annual revenues: $751 million. PAHC's stock falls Wednesday and under cuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, PAHC is trading 355,572 shares, double its average daily volume of 185,000 shares.
The stock trended lower in the morning and undercut key technical support near 27.30.
It fell to an intraday low of 25.91. However, the stock worked its way higher late in the day to get back to its breakdown point.
Nevertheless it caved in again late in the day to finish deep in the red.
PAHC's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $27.57 in the prior session to as low as $25.98.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 3,000 shares crossed at $26.72.
That was down from the prior block at $27.57 on 4,080 shares.
The company makes animal health products for a range of food animals, including poultry, swine, beef and dairy cattle, and aquaculture.
Its animal health products include antibacterials used to treat or to prevent diseases; anticoccidials to prevent and control the disease coccidiosis in poultry and cattle amd anthelmintics for treating infestations of parasitic intestinal worms.
This fiscal year ending in June, analysts are forecasting a 1% decline in net to $1.70 a share from $1.72 a year before.
The company disappointed in the prior quarter coming in with net of 39 cents a share. The Street was expecting 42 cents a share.
PAHC's daily chart shows the stock cutting below support with a pick up in volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line is now trending lower indicating clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PAHC for a decline to 22 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 28.10.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PAHC - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)