Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - March 2, 2018

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Friday - March 2, 2018

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  14

Quality of Breakouts -  Above Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Large list of breakouts with some good plays for aggressive investors.

Stock market  -  Bearish - Dow and S&p both daily and weekly. Nasdaq just holding.

Stock market in a basing pattern after recent sharp decline in February. Look for a tightening of the daily trading range and contraction in volatility.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Friday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) - 58.17, up 3.98 - Breakpoint 55.26

Net To Climb 33% in Fiscal 2018 (June), TTD Targets 70

  TEAM, based in San Francisco, produces computer software and hosting services. Annual revenues: $620 million. TEAM breaks out Friday from a seven-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.

  So far today, TEAM is trading a heavy 2 million shares, double its average daily volume of 924,000 shares.

  The stock is relatively new having come public in 2016.

  TEAM's 10-minute chart shows the stock clearing its breakpoint line around midday.

  The stock continued to work higher in the afternoon.

  It closed near its high for the day. That is bullish.

  Tape Action

  TEAM's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $53.78 in the morning to as high as $58.40.

  A key bullish trade came in the early afternoon when a block of 24,424 shares crossed the tape at $56.85.

  That was up sharply from the prior block at $53.78 on 13, 957 shares (duplicated).   

 The tape was mixed around the close.

  At the final NYSE bell a block of 76,341 shares crossed the tape at $58.17.

  That came on an up tick from the prior trade at $58.16 on 100 shares.

  After the NYSE close, a block of 48,534 shares crossed the tape at $54.06. That was down sharply from  the prior trade at $58.50 on 700 shares.

  That was followed by a trade at $58.51 on 119 shares.

  So, the tape showed some subtle institutional profit taking after the close.

  Business

  TEAM has several software products. They include: JIRA, Confluence, HipChat, Bitbucket and JIRA Service Desk, for software developers and information technology managers.

  The company offers JIRA for team planning and project management. Confluence is for team content creation and sharing;

  HipChat is for team real-time messaging and communications and Bitbucket is for team code sharing and management.

 JIRA allows teams to organize their work into projects and customize dashboards for those projects to keep their teams aligned and on track. 

Charts

  TEAM's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating a sensational 102% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders have not reported any activity.

  TEAM's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in January of 2016 at $28.94. The stock rose quickly to $35, based and then raced higher to $58. It has been a top performer the past three years tripling.   

  TEAM's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $35 back in October to a peak near $53 by November.

  The stock formed a cup-and-handle base and broke out in January.

  However, the move stalled and the pattern morphed into a flat base.

  The breakout Friday is impressive coming with a widening of the daily spread and expanding volume.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is very bullish.

  Earnings Outlook:

 This fiscal year ending in June analysts are forecasting a 33% increase in net to 48 cents a share from 36 cents the year before.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 120. That is high. So, the stock is most suitable for aggressive investors.

  Going out to fiscal 2019 ending in June, the Street projects a 39% gain in net to 66 cents a share from the anticipated 48 cents this year.

  Net for the fiscal third quarter ending in March is expected to be flat at 8 cents a share. The highest estimate on the Street is at 9 cents a share.

  Then for the fourth quarter ending in June, net is projected to jump 56% to 14 cents a share from the 9 cents the year before.

  The company has topped the consensus quarterly estimates the past nine quarters.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TEAM for a move to $70 during the next few months.  A protective stop can be placed near $54.

Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.

Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.

                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish. TEAM has tended to score some good gains off its recent breakouts. The stock is in a strong up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. TEAM rose 5 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Very Bullish - TEAM rose an average of 6.1% in March and 3.6% in April the past several years.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 7

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears:  Neutral.

Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks Friday. Bulls can be venturesome.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Harley Davidson Inc. (HOG) - 44.20, down 0.91

Stock Cuts Below Support, TTD Sees Decline to 37

  HOG, based in Milwaukee, makes motorcycles. Annual revenues: $5.6 billion. HOG's stock falls sharply Friday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, HOG is trading 4.2 million shares. Its average daily volume is 3.2 million shares.

  HOG's stock gapped lower in the morning and cut below support.

  The stock touched an intraday low of $43.48 in the morning.

  The stock lifted, trended sideways in the afternoon and then near the close gave some ground.

   Tape Action

  HOG's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $45.11 in the prior session to as low as $43.80.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 48,638 shares crossed the tape at $44.56.

  That was down from the prior block trade at $45.11 on 118,052 shares late on Thursday.

  Business

  HD sells on-road Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as motorcycle parts and accessories.

The company also provides financing.

 Earnings:

  This year, analysts are forecasting an 8% increase in net to $3.77 a share from the $3.50 the year before.

  Net for the first quarter should rise 7% to $1.12 a share from $1.05 the year before.  

Charts:   HOG's daily chart shows the stock cutting below key technical support at $45.30. The stock did have a breakdown in January after reporting earnings.

HOG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 23% versus a 12% gain for the stock market.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting HOG for a decline to $37 within the next few months, or sooner. a protective stop buy can be placed near $46

Suitability: Average Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bearish.  HOG rose just 7 times after the past 15 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Neutral.  HOG rose an average of 4% in March but declined 2.3% in April the past several years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2018

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)