By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list selective, but some interesting plays. Stock market runs out of gas. May need time to consolidate after big run from low in February. Bulls be watchful.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AMBA - ABOVE AVERAGE
AMBA, based in Santa Clara, Ca., makes video compression and image processing semiconductors. Annual revenues: $194 million. AMBA's stock breaks out Tuesday. In after-hours trading, the stock drives sharply higher on a good earnings report.
Earlier this week, TTD highlighted AMBA as a stock to accumulate in anticipation of a breakout.
After the NYSE close Tuesday, AMBA reported earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter surged to 53 cents a share from 18 cents a year ago.
The 53 cents topped the consensus Street estimate of 39 cents a share and the highest estimate of 40 cents.
The stock closed at 63.05 after the NYSE close. In after-hours trading, heavy blocks crossed pushing the stock to $66.67.
TTD's 10-minute chart of AMBA shows the stock declining in the morning. However, it rallied back and then after the close it drove sharply higher.
AMBA's volume swelled to 4.6 million shares, double its average daily volume of 1.8 million shares.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent large block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks advancing from $58.01 to $63.05.
Note there was a key bullish block that crossed in after hours trading the day before.
That is when 139,467 shares crossed the tape at $61.65.
That was up sharply from the prior block at $58.01.
It would appear perhaps that there may have been some "leakage" on the upcoming earnings.
AMBA makes video compression and image processing semiconductors.
The company's products are used in digital still cameras, digital camcorders, and video-enabled mobile phones.
The firm sells its solutions to original design manufacturers and original equipment manufacturers.
Its technology is also used in television broadcasting infrastructure systems.
AMBA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 90% versus a 16% gain for the S&P 500 index. Insiders have been steady sellers over the months.
AMBA's stock came public in 2013 and traded at $6.71.
The stock advanced to a peak of $36 by early 2014. It then pulled back to $21 in May.
However, since then the stock has advanced strongly.
AMBA's daily chart - prior to the after-hours action - shows the stock breaking out from a nine-week flat base.
The move comes with an expansion in volume.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is strong and broke out before the price of the stock.
That showed good underlying buying.
This fiscal year ending in January of 2016, analysts have been forecasting a modest 14% increase in AMBA's net to $1.62 a share. It would appear that those estimates will be revised by analysts.
Profits for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending in April are expected to leap 109% to 36 cents a share from 17 cents a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 37 cents a share.
TTD sees chances for an upside earnings surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AMBA for a move to 80 off this breakout. That is up from our prior target of 75.
A protective stop can be placed near 59.
TTD rates AMBA an average intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Excellent. A key fund buyer recently was the 5-star rated Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund which purchased 37,000 shares. It is the largest fund holder with a 1.8% stake.
Also, the 5-star rated Fidelity Contrafund was a recent purchaser of 468,520 shares as a new position. It has a 1.6% stake.
AMBA has 30.3 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 34% of the stock and insiders 7%.
Insider Activity: Not available. Currently, 13 analysts follow the stock, 8 have a buy, up from 45 three months ago. FBN Securities put out an outperform rating in February
The company has a book value of $6.91 a share.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Ambarella Inc. - (AMBA)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TSEM - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TWC - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OREX - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NLNK - BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 9
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Large number of breakdown stocks today. Bears can be venturesome. Stock market remains in overall up trend.
Profits Fall Sharply, TTD Sees Drop to 13.30
PRIM, based in Dallas, provides engineering services to utility companies. Annual revenues: $2.1 billion. PRIM's stock falls sharply Tuesday after the company reported sharply lower earnings for the fourth quarter. So far today, PRIM is trading a heavy 2.6 million shares, 13 times its average daily volume of 200,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted PRIM as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
The company reported a drop in fourth quarter earnings to 17 cents a share from 44 cents a year ago.
The 17 cents fell well below the consensus estimate on the Street of 50 cents a share.
PRIM's stock gapped lower in the morning and hit an intraday low of 16.90.
The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day unable to rally.
PRIM's tape action shows the recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $21.09 in the prior session to as low as $17.12 Tuesday morning.
A key bearish trade came when a block of 20,010 shares (duplicated) crossed at $17.12. That was down from the prior block trade at $21.09 on 15,898 shares.
PRIM provides construction, fabrication, maintenance, replacement, water and wastewater, and engineering services to major public utilities.
They also service petrochemical companies, energy companies, and municipalities.
Analysts were forecasting a 15% increase in net for 2015. However, that forecast should come down.
PRIM's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from 30 in September to around 21 after a slight rally. Today's move comes with a big gap to the downside and big volume.
Strategy Opinion: PRIM's stock is obviously extended to the downside. However, the big earnings disappointment could call for downgradings from analysts. TTD is targeting PRIM for a decline to 13.30 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 18.20.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PRIM - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)