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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 4, 2019 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Tuesday - March 5, 2019
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Very few breakouts. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - Market averages remain bullish in all time sectors.
Comment - TTD Market is now in a consolidation after its rally from the lows in December.
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Tuesday - CPLG, HEAR, AGS, URBN, KSS, TGT and XAN.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
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Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
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Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
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Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
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S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's 
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TPB - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TPB, based in Louisville, Ky., produces tobacco products in the U.S. Annual revenues: $286 million. TBP's stock drives higher Tuesday and breaks out from a five-month, cup-and-handle base. 
The move came after TPB reported strong fourth quarter earnings and sales.
So far today, TPB is trading a heavy 487,293 shares, four times its average daily volume of 105,000 shares.
TTD highlighted TPB as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
The company reported fourth quarter net of 25 cents a share, up from the 18 cents the year before. Sales climbed to $94.3 million from $73.6 million the year before. 
TPB's stock spiked higher in the morning to clear its base.
The stock touched an intraday high of $45.89.
The stock then trended sideways the est of the day.
Tape Action
TPB's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $39.65 in the prior session to as high as $45.27 Tuesday morning.
A key bullish trade came when a block of 14,100 shares crossed the tape at $45.39.
That was up from the prior block at $43.50 on 3,000 shares.
Business
TPB produces tobacco products in the U.S.
The company operates in three segments smokeless products, smoking products and NewGen products.
The smokeless products group sells snuff and chewing tobacco.
The company imports and markets cigarette papers, tubes and related products; processes, packages and markets make-your-own cigarette tobacco.
It also sells cigars and cigar tobaccos and cigar wraps, and processes, packages and markets pipe tobaccos.
It also sells e-cigarettes, e-liquids and vaporizers. Its brands cover Zig-Zag, Beech-Nut, Stoker's, Trophy, and VaporBeast.
Charts
TPB's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 110% versus a 3% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers at $30 a share. They were also buyers using stock options at $3.83 a share.
They were sellers at $30 to $43 a share.
TPB's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2016 at $10.16. The stock worked its way to an all-time high of $47 in October of last year. It then pulled back to form its base. 
The breakout comes with a widening of the daily spread and expanding volume.
It is within range to make a new all-time high.
That would be bullish.
TPB's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting an 11% increase in net to $2.08 a share. That estimate could be boosted.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 21.
Just two analysts track the stock.
Net for the first quarter is projected to rise 11% to 39 cents a share from the 35 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TPB for a move to $52 within the next few months or sooner.
A protective stop can be placed near $41.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Extremely Bullish - TBP scored some massive gains off some of its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish - TPB rose 5 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Bullish. - TBP averaged a gain of 7% in March and a gain of 5.3% in April the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
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Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
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26% |
9/6/2018 |
34.87 |
43.90 |
10/8/2018 |
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55% |
5/10/2018 |
22.04 |
34.22 |
8/2/2018 |
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14% |
12/27/2017 |
19.12 |
21.83 |
1/8/2018 |
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24% |
3/15/2017 |
13.73 |
17.12 |
4/24/2017 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
| TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - COLD - AVERAGE |
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IFRX - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Selective list of shorts with several showing significant negative news.
JW.A based in Hoboken, N.J., produces books and data base information for research. Annual revenues: $1.8 billion. JW.A's stock falls sharply Tuesday after the company reported disappointing earnings. 
TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, JW.A is trading 971,066 shares, four times its average daily volume of 262,019 shares.
JW.A was highlighted by TTD as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
JW.A reported fiscal third quarter earnings of 61 cents a share. That was well below Street estimates of 78 cents a share. The company earned 87 cents a share in the prior period.
JW.A's stock fell steadily in the morning and undercut key technical support early in the session.
The stock a low of $42.64 near noon. It then trended sideways until the late afternoon. It lifted slightly in the final hour, but still remained well below its support line. 
Tape Action
JW.A's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $51.70 in the prior session to as low as $42.80 in the afternoon.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 13,000 shares crossed the tape at $43.25.
That was down sharply from the prior block at $51.70 on 79,939 shares.
Business
JW.A provides information for research, professional practice and education.
The company provides digital and print scientific, technical, medical and scholarly journals, reference works, books, database services and advertising.
Earnings:
Net for the fiscal year ending in April was expected to be down 12% to $3.02 share from $3.43 the year before.
However, the latest results would indicate net of just $2.90 a share.
Net for the fiscal fourth quarter ending in April is expected to fall 2% to 92 cents a share from the 94 cents the year before.
Charts:
JW.A's daily chart shows the stock gapping sharply lower with heavy volume. The move undercuts support.
JW.A's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 35% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting JW.A for a decline to $36 within the next several months. A protective stop buy can be placed near $46.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. - JW.A rose 4 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bearish. - JW.A averaged a decline of 1.4% in March and a decline of 0.6% in April the past several years.
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - JW.A - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
