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Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - March 6, 2009

                                          By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Total Buy Breakouts today - 2

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull's Strategy -  Just one breakout today as breakout list continues to remain extremely small and narrow. Stock market remains bearish with all indicators and is in a clear down trend in all time phases.  Bulls  remain conservative and patient.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Unfavorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Today's Feature Breakout Stock

Arcsight Inc. (ARST) - 10.97, up 2.18 - Breakpoint 10.05

Profits Top Street Estimates by Wide Margin, TTD Targets 15

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ARST - ABOVE AVERAGE

    ARST, based in Cupertino, Ca., provides technology to monitor, assess, and manage potential security threats and compliance breaches across IT systems. Annual revenues: $120 million. ARST, a small cap play in the tech sector, breaks out powerfully today after reporting very strong earnings for the fiscal third quarter ended January 31. So far today, the stock is trading a tremendous 2.5 million shares, 15-times its average daily volume of 160,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted ARST as a possible breakout at our Feb. 27 Pro Report.

  TTD also featured the stock at our midsession show on the Web.

  ARST rose sharply in the morning. It then trended sideways the rest of the session. TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 22,500 shares crossing in the late morning at $11. That trade came on a sequence initiated by an up tick from a trade at $10.99.

   ARST has about 400 clients. They include large firms in the aerospace and defense, energy and utilities, financial services, food production and services, health-care, high-technology, insurance, and telecommunications industries. It also services  government agencies.

  The company reported net for the fiscal third quarter ending January 31 came in at 15 cents a share, up 66% from the 9 cents a share a year ago. The 15 cents topped the 4 cents a share consensus estimate which was also the highest estimate. The stock's bullish response to the earnings was extremely bullish.

  ARST's performance chart show the stock appreciating 38% the past 12 months compared with a 52% drop in the S&P 500 index.

 TTD's long-term chart shows ARST coming public last year. The stock ran up to a peak of 13 and then turned lower. It has since turned up and is now emerging from a basing pattern.  

  ARST's daily chart shows the basing work formed after the stock recently ran up from 4 to 10. That was a big advance. The base was well contained between 8 and 10. The big expansion in volume on the breakout is extremely bullish.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is very bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an up trend and confirms the strong breakout today is coming with clear buying.

 This fiscal year ending April 30, analysts were predicting ARST's profits will come in at 12 cents a share compared with a loss of 6 cents a share a year ago.

  TTD sees that estimate probably moving up to 20 cents a share. We would expect most analysts to start putting out higher earnings estimates soon.

  Net for the fiscal fourth quarter ending April 30 was expected to be 6 cents a share compared with a loss of 3 cents a year ago. The highest estimate was at 8 cents a share.

  However, ARST said it now expects fiscal fourth quarter net to climb to 9 to 15 cents a share.

  The company handles healthcare records. That is area the new Washington administration would like to see computerized. So, ARST has potential to be a player in that area.

  Looking ahead to fiscal 2010, analysts predict an 80 gain in net.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD said in our prior report that ARST was a "special situation stock" that could do very well in coming quarters, perhaps better than street expectations.

  Looks like our words are coming true. TTD is targeting ARST for a move to 15 within the next few months.  A protective stop can be placed near 9 giving it room. TTD rates ARST a stock most suitable for aggressive investors. We see the stock as a good intermediate-term play.

   Sponsorship: Not available. ARST has 31 million shares.

   Insider Activity: Not available. Seven analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, up from 5 three months ago.   

                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.


TTD's Profile Rating

Arcsight Inc.  - (ARST)

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term     YES
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success     YES
Fund Sponsorship     YES
Total Score 11 0 3

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.

Charts of Breakout Stocks  


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 6

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.

Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today but some big name issues falling.  Bears remain aggressive as stock market remains in down trend. Many bear plays working well.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

 Apple Inc. (AAPL) - 84.17, off 4.67

Earnings to Drop 11% This Year, TTD Sees Drop to 9

  AAPL, based in Cupertino, Ca., designs personal computer hardware, software, and consumer devices, such as the iPod music player, iLife software suite, and iPhone communications platform. Annual revenues: $33 billion. AAPL, a former bull market leader, breaks down today setting off a TTD short play. The stock has been in a down trend as earnings growth continues to slow. TTD sees more on the downside.

  AAPl is trading 26.7 million shares so far today. The stock's average daily volume is 26.5 million shares.

  The stock started to drop in the morning. It hit an intraday bottom around mdday. It rallied slightly in the afternoon. TTD's clip of the tape shows the big block trades today. One can see the price for the blocks steadily declining. The latest block was 38,800 shares crossing at $84.55.

  The tape action showed clear institutional selling pressure.

  The company's Apple's iTunes online store sells music and videos for download and is now one of the largest retailers of music in the world. Apple sells its products online, as well as through company stores and retail chains around the globe.

 This fiscal year ending Sept. 30, analysts predict a 4% decline in AAPL's net to $5.15 a share from $5.36 a year ago. Net for the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending March 31, the Street forecasts a 7% drop in net to $1.08 a share from $1.16 a year ago.

  TTD's daily chart shows AAPL's stock falling from 180 to 84. The stock then tried to put in a bottom. However, today the stock is moving lower and breaking below near-term support. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) has turned back to being bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is working lower indicating clear selling pressure.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AAPL for a decline to 72 within the next few months, or sooner. The stock has potential to breakdown even more if earnings disappointment.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)