Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Friday, March 6, 2015 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 2, 2015 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 6
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list extremely selective as stock market turns South with volume expanding. Bulls be patient and let the market set up again for potential rally.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FL - AVERAGE |
FL, based in New York, sells athletic showed and clothes. Annual revenues: $7 billion. FL's stock breaks out Friday from a seven-month flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish. The breakout was triggered by FL posting strong than expected earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter ending in January.
TTD highlighted FL as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
The company reported fourth quarter net of $1.01 a share, up from 81 cents a year ago.
The $1.01 topped the consensus estimate of 90 cents a share and also the highest estimate on the Street of 95 cents a share.
TTD has noted that when a company can top the highest estimate there is good chances for a move higher as analysts have to adjust upward their forecasts.
FL's 10-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in the morning on the earnings news. The move sent the stock sprinting through the breakpoint line.
FL hit an intraday peak of 59.85 in the morning. The stock then trended sideways holding the bulk of its gain despite a sharp stock market selloff.
FL's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks jumping from $56.88 in the prior session to as high as $60.15 Friday morning.
A key bullish trade came when a block of 24,900 shares crossed the tape in the morning at $60.
That was up from the prior block at $57.03 on 50,458 shares.
The tape action showed aggressive institutional buying of the earnings' news.
Late in the session, FL yielded to some profit taking.
FL is a global retailer of footwear and clothes. They operate primarily in mall-based stores in North America, Europe, Asia and Australia.
The company operates in two business segments, the Global Athletic Group and the Northern Group.
The Global Athletic Group operates the Foot Locker, Lady Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, Champs Sports and Footlocker.com.
The Northern Group consists of four apparel formats: Northern Reflections, Northern Traditions, Northern Getaway and Northern Elements.
FL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 38% versus a 10% gain for the S&P 500 index.
FL's long-term chart shows the stock trading around 28 in 2006. The stock traveled south due to the bear market falling to 3.65 by late 2008.
However, since then FL has been trending steadily higher and has since made an incredible 16-fold move.
FL's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 48 back in August to 58 by September.
The stock then put down a long flat base that showed two shakeouts to the downside.
The stock, however, rallied back, and today's breakout takes it to a new high, which is bullish.
FL's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has broken out to the upside confirming good underlying buying in the stock.
Currently, analysts are forecast a 9% rise in FL's earnings for the fiscal year ending in January of 2016.
They currently look for net of $3.80 a share. However, that could get boosted given the good results reported Friday.
Profits for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending in April 2015 should rise 9% to $1.21 a share from $1.11 a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.27 a share.
TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise.
The company topped the consensus estimate 10 out of the past 12 quarters. (see table)
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting FL for a move to 72 off this breakout. A protective stop can be set near 56.
TTD rates FL an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is the Oakmark Equity & Income I Fund with a big 5.2% stake. The 4-star rated fund has kept its position steady.
A key fund buyer recently was the 5-star rated JHancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap A Fund which purchased 22,240 shares. It has a 0.67% stake.
FL has 142 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 89% of the stock and insiders 1%.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $10. They were sellers around $55.
Currently, 21 analysts follow the stock, 14 have a buy, the same as three months ago. Barclays upgraded FL in January. FL has a book value of $18.18.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Foot Locker Inc. - (FL) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - COO - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AMTD - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SCHW - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RJF - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 14
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - List of Shorts expands today as stock market falls sharply. Bears be selective. Stock market still in up trend overall. TTD's short from Thursday was Joy Global (JOY) at 39.93. Today, JOY falls to 38.96 and is working well for bears.
RL, based in New York, makes and sells fragrances and home furnishings. Annual revenues: $7.6 billion. RL's stock cuts below key technical support today and sets off a TTD short play. The stock had a big gap drop back in early February. So, RL is in definite down trend.
So far today, RL is trading 1 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.2 million shares.
The stock headed lower in the morning and hit a low of 131.67.
It then staged a slight rally, but then rolled over again in the late afternoon touching a low of 131.50 with expanding intraday volume.
RL's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $134.55 to as low as $131.97.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 10,505 shares crossed the tape at 134.15.
That was down from the prior block at 134.55 on 3,700 shares.
RL offers its products under the Polo by Ralph Lauren, Ralph Lauren Purple Label, Ralph Lauren Women's Collection, Black Label, Blue Label, Lauren by Ralph Lauren, RRL, RLX, Rugby and Ralph Lauren Childrenswear
Analysts are forecasting RL's earnings for the fiscal year ending in March will decline 8% to $7.77 a share from $8.43 a year ago. Going out to fiscal 2016, profits are projected to fall 7% to $7.25 a share.
Net for the fourth quarter is expected to tumble 23% to $1.31 a share from $1.68 the year before.
RL's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from 187 in late December to 133 by February. Today, the stock cuts below key support as volume picks up. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a down trend indicating clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting RL for a decline to 107 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 137.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RL - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)