Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday - March 6,  2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Wednesday - March 6, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  2

Quality of Breakouts -  Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -   Bulls. Only two breakout stocks. Bulls be conservative.

Stock market  -  Market averages all remain bullish except for the daily Dow which is bearish.

Comment -  TTD suggests bulls remain conservative as stock market now goes into a basing pattern.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Wednesday - JILL and YEXT.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) - 100.35, up 4.88 - Breakpoint 100.11

Net Tops Estimates, TTD Targets 122 

   DLTR, based in Goodlettsville, Ten., is a discount retailer selling household products and clothes. Annual revenues: $22.2 billion. DLTR's stock moves higher Wednesday and breaks out  from its 5-week flat base.

  So far today, DLTR is trading 2.1 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.7 million shares. 

  DLTR came in with slightly better than expected earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter ending in January.

  The retailer reported net for the quarter of $1.93 a share, excluding a special charge. That topped the consensus estimate of $1.92 a share.

  The company also said it plans to close several hundred Family Dollar stores.

   DLTR's stock spiked higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint line.

  The stock reached an intraday high of $120.21. The stock then back off below its breakpoint line (see 10-minute chart).

  However, DLTR came on again in the afternoon and managed to finish just above its breakpoint line.

 The volume was strong near the close indicating bargain hunting.

   Tape Action

  DLTR's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $95.47 in the prior session to as high as $100.75 in the afternoon.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 31,622 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $97.73.

  That was up from the prior block the day before at $95.47 on 165,816 shares.

  Near the close a massive block of 163,440 shares (duplicated) cross the tape at $100.35.

  That was on a down tick from the prior trade at $100.40 on 730 shares.

   Business

  DLTR is a discount retailer selling home products such as cleaning products like paper towels, bath tissue, and home cleaning supplies.

 It also sells food items like cereals, milk, beer, wine. Some of its other items include cookies, and carbonated beverages, health and beauty products and over-the-counter medicines.

  Charts

  DLTR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 4% versus a 3% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyers at $82 a share and at $58 using stock options.

  They have not done any recent selling.

  DLTR's long-term chart shows the stock in a steady up trend the past 8-years. The stock climbed from $25 in 2011 to a peak at $96 by 2016.

  It then consolidated and broke out in 2017 and touched an all time high at $116.65 in early 2018.  

  DLTR's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $80 in November to near $100 by January.

  The stock held near the breakpoint line to form a flat base.

 The breakout Wednesday clears the breakpoint line with a big pick up in volume.

  It will be important to see a follow through move to the upside to confirm the breakout.

  DLTR's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.

   Earnings Outlook

  This fiscal year ending in January of 2020, analysts are forecasting a strong 6% rise in net to $5.77 a share from the $4.50 in fiscal 2019.

   The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 22. TTD sees that as a bit high given the earnings growth rate.

   Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending in April is expected to be $1.05 to $1.10 a share. That would compare with the $1.26 the year before. Some analysts , though, are forecasting $1.26 a share with some as high as $1.36 a share.

     Looking out to fiscal 2020 ending in January, analysts are calling for net of $5.78 a share versus $5.46 for fiscal 2019. The company is currently projecting a more modest $4.85 to $5.25 a share.

  Currently,12 analysts follow the stock. The company has topped the consensus Street estimate five out of the pas nine quarters.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DLTR for a move to $122.  A protective stop can be placed at $95.

Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.

Suitability:  Conservative Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish -  DLTR  scored some good gains at times off its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bullish. DLTR rose 6 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Neutral.  DLTR showed a 0.7% gain in March but a 0.7% decline in April the past several years.   

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 11

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Expanding list of shorts as stock market falls sharply. Bears can be venturesome.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. (LGND) - 106.52

Net to Drop 17% This Year, TTD Sees Decline to 90

  LGND, based in San Diego, is biotech providing technology to aid drug firms in developing new products. Annual revenues: $251 million. LGND's stock falls sharply and undercuts key technical support Wednesday.

  So far today, LGND is trading a heavy 3.6 million shares, five times its average daily volume of 500 shares.

  The decline was triggered after LGND said it had sold the rights to its Promacta product.

  LGND's stock fell sharply in the morning and undercut key support. The stock touched an intraday low of 104.28 in the morning.

  The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day.

  TTD highlighted LGND as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.

  Tape Action

  LGND's  tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $120.61 in the prior session to as low as $106.52 by the close Wednesday.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 10,000 shares crossed the tape at $109.99.

  That was down from the prior block at $120.61 on 15,2014 shares on Tuesday.

  Business

  LGND develops technologies for drug firms. It uses nuclear receptor assays, high throughput computer screening, formulation science, liver targeted pro-drug technologies and antibody discovery technologies to assist companies in their work to obtain drug approvals.

  The company has partnerships and license agreements with 85 drug firms.

 Earnings:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 17% decline in net to $5.23 a share from the $6.28 the prior year.

  Net for the first quarter is expected to drop 35% and then in the second quarter fall another 42%.   

Charts:  

  LGND's daily chart show the stock cutting below support with heavy volume. The stock has been in a down trend $278 in October of last year.

  LGND's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 28% versus a 3% gain for the stock market.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting LGND for a decline to $90 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $112

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral.  LGND rose 4 times after the past 8 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bullish.   LGND averaged a gain of 10.4% in March and a gain of 3.1% in April the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)