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Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - March 7, 2008

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 1

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - Just one breakout play today.  Bulls be conservative.

Long- term Environment for bulls:  Bearish

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market Status (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Today's Featured Stock

Rock-Tenn Co. (RKT) - 29.27, up 2.29 - Breakpoint 29

Profits to Rise 21% in Fiscal 2008, TTD Targets 35

  RKT, based in Norcross, Ga., makes packaging products, merchandising displays, and paperboard products. Annual revenues $2.4 billion. RKT breaks out from a six-week flat base today. The stock showed good action throughout the day weathering a steep market selloff. So far today, RKT is trading 1.1 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 418,000 shares.   

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the stock finishing strong on Thursday. A bullish big block crossed on the final trade of Thursday on 11,600 shares and with an up tick to $27.21.

  At today's opening, the stock shot higher with a big block of 13,800 shares crossing on a modest up tick to $28.05 from the prior trade at $28.03.

  TTD highlighted RKT as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web.

 RKT's packaging operations manufacture folding cartons, interior solid-fiber packaging, and corrugated media, while its paperboard division produces clay-coated, laminated, and 100% recycled paperboard.

 The company provides marketing and design services aimed at delivering complete packaging solutions to customers.

  TTD's long-term chart of RKT shows the stock with a powerful advance through 2006 and 2007. It soared from 13 to 44. It has since come done but gives the technical appearance of having bottomed and turned.

  RKT's daily chart shows the stock staging a rally from 22 to January to a peak near 29. The stock then settled back into a base. Today, it gaps higher with expanding volume and widening of the spread.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator has just edged back into the bullish zone. the accumulation - distribution line continued to work higher (see bottom of chart)

  RKT's net for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 should rise 21% to $2.63 a share from $2.17 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  just 11. So, for this fiscal year, the stock is attractive on a valuation - earnings growth basis.

  Net for the fiscal second quarter ending March 30 should climb 19% to 68 cents a share from 57 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 74 cents a share. So, some are looking for a very good quarter.

  The company is benefiting from increased prices and acquisitions.

  Strategy Opinion: RKT is a lagging stock that is breaking out. It has "overhead-resistance" meaning others have bought at a higher price recently. TTD sees the stock as a near-term breakout type play. We look for a move to 35 within the few months. A protective stop can be placed near 27. TTD rates RKT an average intermediate-term play.

  Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is Morgan Stanley US Small Cap Value Fund with a 1.4% stake. It was a recent buyer of 38,000 shares. The company has 38 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 8.7 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bullish. Insiders have been light buyers this year. Three analysts follow the stock, 2 have a buy, the same as three months ago.

TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Rock-Tenn Co.  (RKT)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High   YES
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term     YES
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D   YES
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term     YES
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group   YES
Prior Breakout Success   YES
Fund Sponsorship   YES
Total Score 7 0 7

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)

Charts of Breakout Stocks


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 13

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side -  Breakdown stocks today continue to out number breakout issues. Bears be venturesome. TTD's shorts from Thursday working well. Merrill Lynch (MER) falls 0.64 to 45.24 and Best Buy (BBY) loses 1.13 to 39.70.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Alkermes Inc. (ALKS) - 11.01, down 1.39

May Lose Lilly Deal, TTD Sees Slide to 8

  ALKS, based in Cambridge, Ma., produces drug delivery systems. Annual revenues: $243 million. ALKS falls sharply today. It expects its inhaled insulin development partner Eli Lilly & Co. to discontinue the development program for the Air Insulin product in the next week. ALKS is off over a point. Volume so far today is running at 6 million shares, four times its normal daily volume 1.3 million shares.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows key selling early in the day. A big block of 249,300 shares crossed the tape on down tick to $11.50 from the prior trade at $11.57. The action showed heavy institutional selling pressure.

  ALK is a drug-delivery company with two approved products and a number of midstage drugs in development.

 The firm's two approved long-acting injectable drugs, Risperdal Consta and Vivitrol, treat schizophrenia and alcohol dependence, respectively.

 The company's pipeline consists of an inhaled version of insulin, a long-acting version of Eli Lilly's Byetta (Exenatide LAR), as well as inhaled versions of Eli Lilly's Forteo and Indevus' Sanctura.

 ALKS said it wasn't aware of any safety, efficacy, or manufacturing issues from the AIR since Lilly's last public update on the drug.

 AIR Insulin is currently being evaluated in a Phase III trial in patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Lilly has the right to terminate its license to AIR at its discretion.

  Currently, analysts expect ALKS' earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter ending March 30 to fall 33% to 2 cents a share from 3 cents a year ago.

  TTD's daily chart shows the breakdown in ALKS today. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is extremely bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower indicating clear selling pressure. TTD is calling for ALKS to decline to 8 within the next few months. The stock is a good looking short for aggressive bears.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)