Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday, March 7 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 5 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show(Posted 12:30 to 1 p.m. NYSE Time) Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - March 7Go to Shows for Latest Week: Monday
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Tuesday
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Wednesday
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Thursday
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Friday
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Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 0
Overall Quality of Breakouts - N/A
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - No breakouts today as stock bounces up after Tuesday's sharp decline. Stock market looks to be entering a consolidation phase. Bulls be patient, selective and watch all stop strategies.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
None
(No Breakouts Today, So, TTD features a stock nearits breakpoint)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ALOG - AVERAGE |
ALOG, based in Peabody, Mas., makes medical imaging and security systems. Annual revenues: $487 million. ALOG's stock rises sharply today putting it into position to breakout to the upside from its base at any time. TTD highlights ALOG today because there were no breakout stocks. ALOG's big push higher today was triggered by a strong earnings report.
So far today, ALOG's stock is up about 5 points. Volume is running at 221,301 shares, five times its normal daily volume of 37,000 shares.
ALOG is thinly traded. ALOG has 12.2 million shares outstanding.
TTD highlighted ALOG at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
The stock is now at $59.63. It needs to punch over $59.90 to breakout.
ALOG's 10-minute chart shows the stock gaping higher in the morning and pushing across its breakpoint line. However, later in the day the stock has drifted back a bit. It is just below its breakpoint line
ALOG reported net for the fiscal second quarter ended January 30 jumped to $1.59 a share from 42 cents a year ago. Adjusted for items it came in at 84 cents a share topping the consensus estimate on the Street of 56 cents a share.
The stock responded extremely bullish to the earnings news.
ALOG's tape action shows the price for the blocks climbing from $54.59 to a peak of $60.28.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 2,275 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $59.50. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $54,59.
Later in the day a block of 24,545 shares crossed at 59.53. That was below the $60.28 for the prior block. So, the tape is showing some profit taking. .
ALOG makes medical imaging and security systems and subsystems sold to OEMsin the healthcare and airport security markets.
The firms medical technology business consists of two reporting segments. Its medical imaging includes systems and subsystems for computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) medical imaging equipment.
It also produces selenium-based detectors for screening anddiagnostic applications in mammography.
Security technology consists of advanced explosives and weapons detection systems utilized in CT, for aviation security.
ALOG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 9% versus a breakeven for the S&P 500 index.
However a look at the performance chart shows ALOG insiders were clear buyers of the stock recently.
ALOG's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 40 in 2003 to a peak of 79.02 in 2007. The stock then fell to 24.63 during the beark market which ended in early 2009. Since then ALOG has been work higher.
ALOG's daily chart shows the stock advancing from $44 in October to a peak of 59 in January. It then formed a flat base. The stock had moved lower in recent sessions. But, today surprises and gaps sharply higher with strong volume off the earnings news.
The stock did get over its breakpoint, but then faded back.
ALOG's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) compliments the price action of the stock.
Analysts see another strong quarter coming for ALOG
They are forecasting a 55% jump in earnings for the fiscal third quarter ending April 30 to 61 cents a share from 39 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 62 cents a share.
Overall, earnings for the fiscal year ending July of 2012 should rise 20% to $2.18 a share from $1.81 the year before. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 27. TTD sees that as reasonable. Going out to fiscal 2013 ending in July the Street projects a 31% gain in net to $2.86 a share from the anticipated $2.18 for fiscal 2012.
The company said it benefittedfrom increased demand for its security products.
Strategy Opinion: TTD suggests a stop buy at 59.90 to enter on a breakout. The stock is a bit extended near-term. So, it will have to demonstrated continued strength to lead to an entry.
TTD is targeting ALOG for a move to 72 after a breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 57 after a breakout. TTD rates ALOG a good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fundholder is 4-star rated Heartland Value Plus Fund with a 6.1% stake. It was a recent buyer of 25,000 shares. Also, Columbia Small Cap Core Z Fund, 4-star rated, recently picked up 13,000 shares.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Not much activity lately. Top executives have been granted options at around $48. Currently, 3 analysts follow the stock, and all 3 have a buy, up from 2 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Analogic Inc. - (ALOG) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success |
YES |
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Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
None
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today as stock market bounces a bit after Tuesday's sharp selling. Bears can be venturesome. TTD's short from Tuesday was Nutri Systems Inc. (NTRI) at 10.61. Today, NTRI has declined to 10.46 and is working well for bears.
DECK, based in Goleta, Ca., makes shoes and accessories. Annual revenues: $1.4 billion. DECK's stock fall sharply today on heavy volume to undercut near-term technical support. So far today, DECK is trading 4 million shares, up from its normal daily volume of 2.7 million shares. With declining earnings expected for the next two quarters, TTD sees DECK as a good short.
TTD highighted DECK as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
The stock fell sharply in the morning and hit an intraday low around 11 am at 70.25. The stock then trended sideways unable to mount an effective rally.
DECK's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $7510 to $70.32.
a key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 25,000 shares crossed thet ape at $71.36. That was down from the prior block at $75.10.
DECK sells its handbags and outerwear, through domestic and international retailers.
It market its products under two brands: UGG and Teva. UGG is a brand in luxury and comfort footwear and accessories, and Teva is a brand in multi-sport shoes, rugged outdoor footwear, and sport sandals.
This year analysts are forecasting just a 2% rise in DECK's earnings to $5.18 a share from $5.07 a year ago. Net for the upcoming first quarter should sink 49% to 25 cents a share from 49 cents a year ago. The usually red second quarter should show a loss of 37 cents a share comapared with a loss of 19 cents the year before.
DECK's daily chart shows the stock declining from 118 in October to 75. The stock attempted several rallies but was thrown back each time. Now, the stock undercts key technical support.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DECK for a decline to 62 within the next few months or sooner. A potective stop buy can be placed near 73.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DECK - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)