Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday - March 7, 2018

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Wednesday - March 7, 2018

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  18

Quality of Breakouts -  Above Average.

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Large list of breakouts Wednesday with some interesting plays. Bulls can be venturesome.

Stock market  -  Bullish.  Major averages are all bullish except for the daily Dow indicator. Overall, the stock market is in a trading range.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Wednesday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Mellanox Technologies Ltd. (MLNX) - 72, up 2.75 - Breakpoint 69.08

Net Tops Estimates, TTD Targets 105 

   MLNX, based in Sunnyvale, Ca., is a fabless semiconductor company. Annual revenues: $864 million. MLNX's stock drives higher Wednesday and breaks out from an 8-week, cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock to a five-year high.

  So far today, MLNX is trading 741,359 shares. Its average daily volume is 455,000 shares.

 TTD highlighted MLNX as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web.

 MLNX has a beta of just 0.61 versus 1.00 for the stock market. So, the stock, in general, tends to be less volatile than the stock market.

   MLNX's stock moved higher in the morning and cut across its breakpoint line.

   MLNX closed near its high for the session.

   That is very bullish.

  Tape Action

  MLNX's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $68.70 to as high as $72.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 2,500 shares crossed the tape at $70.

  That was up from the prior block at $68.70 on 5,292 shares.

  Near the close a massive block of 14,631 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $72.

  That came within a sequence from an up tick in block trades from $71.20 on 1,999 shares.

  Business

  MLNX makes interconnect products and solutions based on the InfiniBand and Ethernet standards.

  The company produces interconnect products that facilitate data transmission between servers, storage systems, communications infrastructure equipment and other embedded systems.

 It operates its business globally and offers products to customers at various levels of integration.

MLNX offers integrated circuits, adapter cards, switch systems, multi-core and network processors, cables, modules and software.

Charts

  MLNX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 48% versus 15% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyers at $10 to $25 a share. They were sellers at $65 to $70 a share.

  MLNX's long-term chart shows the stock surging to an all-time high of $120.05 back in 2012.

  However, the stock fell all the way back to $30.61 by 2014. It then trended mostly sideways until late last year when it broke out to the upside. The stock is now in a long-term up trend again.   

  MLNX's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $42 back in October to a peak near $69 by January.

  The stock then put down a cup-and-handle base.

  The breakout Wednesday is good coming with a widening of the daily spread and expansion in volume.

  The stock's CCI remains bullish.

  Earnings Outlook:

 Analysts are forecasting a 58% surge in net this year to $3.60 a share from the $2.28 the year before.

  The stock has a price-earnings ratio of 20. TTD sees that as attractive to value-growth investors.

  Looking out to 2019, the Street is projecting a 16% increase in net to $4.17 a share from the anticipated $3.60 a share this year.

  Quarterly earnings will be very strong.

  Net for the first quarter is expected to surge 169% to 78 cents a share from the 29 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at 86 cents a share. The company topped the consensus estimate the past three quarters by 14 cents a share, 7 cents and one cent.

  Looking out to the second quarter, the Street is predicting a 91% leap in net to 84 cents a share from the 44 cents the year before.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MLNX for a move to $105 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $68.50.

Intermediate-Term Rating: Above Average.

Suitability: Average Bulls.

   TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish.  MLNX has scored some big gain off past breakouts, although there have been few. The stock is now moving into a long-term up trend after having been trending sideways from 2013 to 2017.

tended to score just modest gains off its recent breakouts. However, the stock is in a strong up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish.  MLNX rose 8 times after the past 12 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Success -  Neutral.  MLNX rose an average of 3.8% in March but declined an average of 9% in April the past several years.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears:  Neutral.

Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks Wednesday. Bears be conservative. Stock market still in a trading range.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Dollar General Corp. (DG) - 89.39, down 4.05

Profit Growth Slowing , TTD Sees Decline to 78

  DG, based in Goodlettsville, Ten., is a discount retailer of a variety of products. Annual revenues: $22 billion. DG's stock falls sharply Wednesday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, DG is trading 5.3 million shares, about double its average daily volume of 2.5 million shares.

  DG's stock fell sharply in the morning and cut below its support. The stock touched an intraday low of $87.54 in the morning.

  The stock lifted to $90.64 late in the morning.

  The stock then edged lower and trended sideways the rest of the day.

  Tape Action

  DG's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $93.44 in the prior session to as low as $88.25.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 25,000 shares crossed the tape at $88.87.

  That was down from the prior block trade at $93.44 late the day before on a big block trade of 201,330 shares.   

  Business

 DG sells a wide variety of products. They include paper and cleaning products, packaged foods such as cereals, spices, sugar and flour.

 It also sells milk, beer and wine and snacks such as candy, cookies. In addition, it sells health and beauty products.

DG also sells apparel products for infants, toddlers, girls, boys, women and men.

 Earnings:

  This fiscal year ending in January of 2018 the street expects a modest 1% increase in net to $4.52 a share from $4.48 the year before.

  Fiscal fourth quarter net should by down 1% to $1.48 a share from the $1.49 the year before.

  Looking ahead to fiscal 2019 ending in January, analysts predict a 23% increase in net to $5.54 a share from the anticipated $4.52 for fiscal 2018.   

Charts:   

  DG's daily chart shows the stock breaking to the downside from a head-and-shoulder basing pattern. The move comes with a big increase in volume. The technical pattern is very bearish.

  DG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 25% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.

  Insider were recent buyers using stock options at $8 to $25 a share. They were sellers at $90 to $92 share.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DG for a decline to $78 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed $92.

Suitability: Average Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish.  DG rose 7 times after the past 11 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Neutral.   DG rose an average of 0.4% in March but declined 0.3% in April the past several years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2018

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)