By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small as stock market rallies. Bulls be selective. Stock market now in a trading range. Focus will be on upcoming first quarter results and annual meetings.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011 - Updated March 4)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DKS - ABOVE AVERAGE
DKS, based in Pittsburgh, operates sporting goods stores. Annual revenues: $4.7 billion. DKS's stock breaks out today from a 12-week flat base today after reporting strong profits for the fiscal fourth quarter and giving an upbeat forecast for fiscal 2012 ending January 31. TTD featured the stock recently as one to accumulate. So far today, DKS is trading 5.2 million shares, five times its normal daily volume of 5.1 million shares.
DKS reported net income for the fiscal fourth quarter ending January 31 jumped to 71 cents a share from 56 cents a year ago. That was in line with the Street forecast.
However, for the year ending January of 2012, it said profits would be $1.89 to $1.91 a share. That was above the current consensus estimate of $1.86 a share. So, the company painted a bright and bullish outlook.
DKS's stock broke out in the morning (see 10-minute chart) the stock peaked around midday and then trended sideways consolidating its gain.
DKS's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $35.99 to $40.04. That shows good institutional buying in the stock.
A key bullish trade came on Tuesday morning when 35,060 shares crossed the tape at $39.50.
That was up sharply from the prior block that crossed at $37.67.
DKS sells brand name sporting goods equipment, apparel, and footwear. It has 419 Dick’s Sporting Goods stores in 40 states and 91 Golf Galaxy stores in 31 states.
Dick’s carry a range of brands, including Nike, The North Face, Columbia, adidas, TaylorMade, Callaway and Under Armour, as well as private label products sold under names such as Maxfli, Tailgate Gear and Walter Hagen.
DKS's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 58% versus 18% for the S&P 500 index.
DKS's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in late 2002 and trading around 5. It soared to 36 by 2007. In the following bear market years, the stock tumbled back to around 10. It has since rallied powerfully and is making new highs having recovered all it lost gains in the bear market.
DKS's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 25 to a peak of 38. It set up a cup-and-handle base. It attempted a breakout three sessions ago, but it did not work.
However, today it did as the stock gapped higher with strong profits.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend and has punched to a new peak. That confirms the breakout has good underlying buying.
Analysts look for DKS to show a 21% increase in net for the fiscal first quarter ending April 30. They see 27 cents a share, up from 22 cents a year ago.
The company has been doing better due to the improvement in the economy.
Strategy Opinion: As TTD said in our recent report DKS was very well setup for a breakout. TTD is targeting DKS for a move to 48 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 36 giving it some room. TTD rates DKS a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on track.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Baron Growth Retail Fund with a 4.3% stake. It has held its positron steady. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated Lord Abbett Developing Growth Fund that recently purchased 204,587 shares. DKS has 116.6 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options. They turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $37. Right now, 25 analysts follow the stock, 13 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HEI - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PII - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MSI - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SSI - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few short plays today. Bears remain watchful as stock market remains vulnerable. Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMLN) - 11.36, down 9.14. So far today AMLN is trading at 11.24. It is working well for bears.
CASY operates convenience stores under the name Casey’s General Store, HandiMart and Just Diesel in nine Midwestern states, primarily Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. Annual revenues: $5.3 billion. CASY's stock gaps lower today with heavy volume to set off a TTD short play. The company came in with disappointing earnings for the fiscal third quarter. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, CASY is trading 1.9 million shares, eight times its normal daily volume of 209,000 shares.
The company reported net for the fiscal third quarter ended January 31 of 34 cents a share flat with last year's 34 cents a share. The 34 cents was below the consensus estimate of 49 cents a share and also below the lowest estimate of 42 cents a share.
The news was bearish and the stock responded in a bearish way.
CASY's stock fell sharply in the morning. It hit a low of 36.25 late in the morning. The stock rallied a bit in the afternoon to trim its loss.
The company's stores carry a selection of foods such as pizza, donuts, and sandwiches, beverages, tobacco products, health and beauty aids, automotive products and other nonfood items.
In addition, all stores offer gasoline for sale on a self-service basis. CASY has 1,531 Casey’s General Stores in operation. The company has been aggressive in making acquisitions.
This fiscal year ending April 30, the Street has been forecasting a 17% gain in net to $2.76 a share from $2.37 a year ago. TTD sees that forecast being cut.
CASY's daily chart shows the gap drop. The stock had been holding in a sideways pattern. It would appear from the tape action that the bearish news came as a surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CASY for a decline to 31 within the next few months, or sooner. We see the stock as a trading short. A protective stop can be placed near 39.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CASY - AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)