Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - March 8  2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Friday - March 8, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  4

Quality of Breakouts -  Below Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -   Bulls very few breakouts. Bulls be extremely conservative.

Stock market  -  Market averages are bullish in the weekly and monthly sectors. However, the daily averages are bearish.

Comment -  TTD suggests caution at this time with the daily averages weak and breakout list small.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Friday - DSKE, OFS, BMA and BIG.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

PNM Resources Inc. (PNM) - 45.86, up 0.92 - Breakpoint 45.36

Net To Rise 7% This Year, TTD Targets 53 

  PNM, based in Albuquerque, N.M., is an electric utility firm servicing New Mexico and Texas. Annual revenues: $1.4 billion. PNM's stock moves higher Friday and breaks out from a 12-week, cup-and-handle base.

  So far today, PNM is trading a heavy 943,762 shares, double its average daily volume of 404,000 shares.

  Being a utility, PNM is a very conservative breakout play. It has a dividend yield of 1.2%.

  PNM's stock gapped higher in the morning and then pulled back slightly. It then trended sideways just below its breakpoint line.

  In the late afternoon, PNM rose and broke out. It closed near its high for the day. That is bullish.

  Tape Action

  PNM's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks rising from $44.55 in the prior session to as high as $45.86 late on Friday.

  A key bullish trade came late on Thursday when a block of 47,020 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $44.94.

  That was up from the prior block at $44.55 on 231,600 shares earlier on Thursday.

  Then near the close Friday a bullish block of 106,501 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $45.86.

  That was up sharply from the prior block at $45.19 on 25,000 shares.

  Business

  PNM operates two utilities providing electricity in New Mexico and Texas.

  PNM's electric utilities are Public Service Company of New Mexico and Texas-New Mexico Power Company.

   The company provides services in Texas under the provisions of Texas Electric Choice Act and the Texas Public Utility Regulatory Act.  

  Charts

  PNM's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 29% versus a breakeven for the stock market.

  Insiders have been buyers using stock options. The price was not disclosed.

  They have not done any recent selling.

  PNM's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $13 back in 2011 to a peak of $46 late last year.

  The stock has been a steady climber with just modest pull back. It is in position to move to a new all-time high.

  PNM's daily chart shows the stock climbing from$38 back in November to a peak at $45.

  The stock pulled back and then rallied to form a cup-and-handle base.

  The breakout is solid coming with a good expansion in volume.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.   

  Earnings Outlook

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 7% increase in net to $2.15 a share from the $2 the year before.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 20.

  Going out to 2020, the Street predicts a 3% increase in net to $2.22 a share from the anticipated $2.15 this year.

  Utility stocks tend to show modest earnings growth. They are conservative and tend to show slow steady progress as far as their stocks go.

 Net for the upcoming first quarter, though, is expected to fall 57% to 9 cents a share from the 21 cents the year before.

  Just 2 analysts follow the stock. PNM topped the consensus estimate 9 out of the past 10 quarters, and matched it once.

   Profits for the second quarter are projected to surge 22% to 64 cents a share from the 53 cents the year before.   

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting PNM for a move to $53 within the next few months, or sooner.

A protective stop can be placed near $43 giving it room.

The stock has a beta of 0.28 versus 1.00 for the stock market. So, it tends not to be volatile.

Intermediate-Term Rating:  Average.

Suitability:   Conservative Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish -  PNM scored some massive gains off some of its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish -  PNM rose 5 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Slightly Bullish. -  PNM averaged a gain of 4.7% in March but a decline of 1.2% in April the past several years. 

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 11

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.

Bear Side - Large list of shorts as the stock market moves lower. Bears can be venturesome.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) - 12.48

Profit Outlook Lowered, TTD Sees Drop to 9.50

  LOCO, based in Costa Mesa, Ca., operates restaurants selling mostly Mexican style food. Annual revenues: $402 million. LOCO's stock falls sharply Friday was triggered by the report of large loss for the fourth quarter.

  The move sends the stock below key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, LOCO is trading a heavy 3.4 million shares, five times its average daily volume of 619,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted LOCO as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.

  LOCO's stock fell sharply in the morning and undercut key technical support.

  The stock fell to an intraday low of $12.32.

   Tape Action

  LOCO's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $15.05 in the prior session to as low as $12.38 in the afternoon.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 11,968 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $14.54.

  That was down sharply from the prior block at $15.05 on 13,952 shares late on Thursday.

   Business

  LOCO's menu features its signature product, citrus-marinated fire-grilled chicken, and a range of Mexican-inspired entrees that it creates from chicken.

 The company also offers burritos, salads, tostadas, bowls, stuffed quesadillas and chicken entrees.

 LOCO has  460 restaurants, 201 company-operated and 259 franchised.

 Earnings:

  This year analysts have been forecasting a 9% increase in net to 80 cents a share from the 74 cents the year before.

  Analysts are calling for a 15% rise in net for the first quarter to 20 cents a share from 17 cents the year before.  

Charts:  

  LOCO's stock has been in a down trend after peaking at $17.26 earlier this year.

  The stock's breakdown cuts below long-term support. That is bearish.

  LOCO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 30% versus a breakeven for the stock market.

  However, the past two months the stock has been falling sharply.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting LOCO for a decline to $9.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $13.50.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish.  -  LOCO rose 3 times after the past 7 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity -  Slightly Bearish. -   LOCO averaged a decline of 3.4% in March but a gain of 2.8% in April the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331

   Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.

  TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.  

 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)