Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Thursday, March 9, 2017 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 6, 2017 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 6
Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small but some good looking plays for aggressive bulls. Stock market now consolidating recent gains.
(Put mouse on chart to Nasdaq)
Environment for bulls: Neutral
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CELG - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CELG, based in Summit, N.J., produces drugs to treat cancer and immune-inflammatory related diseases. Annual revenues: $11.2 billion. CELG's stock breaks out Thursday from an 18-week cup-and-handle base. The move comes with a pick up in volume.
CELG is a big cap leader in the medical sector.
So far today, CELG is trading 5.6 million shares. Its average daily volume is 4 million shares.
CELG's stock moved sharply higher in the morning and cut across its breakpoint line.
The stock reached an intraday peak of $126.16 around noon. It pulled back a bit in the early afternoon, but rallied to complete the day as a breakout stock.
There was a significant pick up in volume near the close. (see 10-minute chart).
Tape Action
CELG's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $122.74 in the prior session to a peak of $125.42 Thursday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 37,016 shares crossed the tape at $123.04.
That was up from the prior block at $122.74 on 20,700 shares.
Late in the session a massive block of 329,792 shares (duplicated) crossed at $125.13.
That came on a sequence with a down tick from $125.17.
So, it would indicate some institutional profit taking. So, bulls need to be watchful at the opening on Friday.
Business
CELG develops orally administered, small molecule drugs to treat cancer and immunological diseases.
Its primary commercial-stage products include Revlimid, Vidaza, Thalomid and Abraxande. It also has licensing deals with Novartis. CELG has also been active in making acquisitions.
Charts
CELG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 24% compared with an 19% gain for the stock market. CELG has moved sharply higher after its past two earnings reports.
The past few months insiders have been buying using stock options at $27 to $31 a share. They turned around and sold at $116 to $123 a share.
CELG's long-term chart shows the stock soaring from $5 back in 2005 to a peak of 77 in 2008. The stock then fell back to 39 during the bear market that ended in 2008.
The stock worked its way back and in 2012 broke out from its long-term flat basing chart pattern. It hit a new high in 2015 at $131.25.
It the pulled back and went into a long-term basing pattern. However, CELG is within striking distance of making a new all-time high. That would be bullish.
CELG's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 96 back in October to a peak near $124 by November.
The stock pulled back and formed a base. It morphed into a cup-and-handle set up.
Thursday, CELG breaks out by just clearing its breakpoint line.
CELG's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is still in the bullish zone by being over 100.
Earnings
For 2017, analysts are forecasting a 27% increase in net to $6.60 a share from $5.18 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 18. TTD sees that as low. making the stock a good value-growth play.
Looking out to 2018, Wall Street projects a 24% jump in profits to $8.16 a share from the anticipated $6.60 this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to jump 25% to $1.47 a share from $1.18 the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.55 a share. CELG topped the Street estimate three out of the past four quarters.
Going out to the second quarter earnings are expected to rise another 25% to $1.60 a share from $1.28 the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CELG for a move to $150. A protective stop can be placed near 118.
TTD rates CELG an excellent intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance after a Breakout:
TTD's research shows that recently (see table) CELG has scored only small gains off its breakouts.
That is due in part that the company is in a long-term consolidation pattern. Going back to 2013 and the next several months CELG racked up some big gains.
If CELG can embark on a new long-term up trend, TTD expects the breakouts to score some strong gains, especially since CELG's earnings outlook remains solid.
The stock has moved higher after earnings four out of the past five quarters. CELG's seasonal chart shows the stock doing very will in May. April tends to be soft.
CELG's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
6% |
7/27/2016 | 108.72 | 116.14 | 8/3/2016 |
7% |
7/13/2015 | 120.70 | 130.01 | 7/23/2015 |
33% |
10/23/2014 | 96.29 | 128.50 | 3/20/2015 |
13% |
6/10/2014 |
83.52 |
94.74 |
8/22/2014 |
21% |
7/11/2013 | 65.70 | 79.61 |
10/21/2013 |
58% |
1/7/2013 | 40.82 | 64.83 | 5/13/2013 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AXTA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ALRM - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AGM - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ING - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown plays Thursday, but some interesting plays. Bears be conservative. Stock market now is going into a consolidation.
VNET, based in China, is an internet data center services provider. Annual revenues: $540 million. VNET's stock falls sharply Thursday after the company reported a loss for the quarter. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, VNET is trading a heavy 4.9 million shares, 16 times its average daily volume of 331,000 shares.
The stock was as high as $32 back in 2014. It has fallen steadily.
VNET reported an adjusted loss per share for the quarter of 60 cents a share compared with a loss of 7 cents a share, a year before.
VNET's stock fell in the morning and continued South through the day. It closed near its low for the session. That is bearish.
Tape Action
VNET's tape shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $7.05 in the prior session to as low as $5.61.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 21,187 shares (duplicated) traded at $6.61.
That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $7.05 on 21,848 shares.
Business
VNET hosts its customers' servers and networking equipment and provides interconnectivity.
The company also provides managed network services to enable customers to deliver data across the Internet through its data transmission network and smart routing technology.
VNeT provides value-added services, such as content delivery network services, virtual private network services and last-mile wired broadband services.
Earnings
This year, analysts have been forecasting a loss of 48 cents a share compared with a loss of 52 cents in 2016.
The Street expects a loss 12 cents a share in the second quarter.
Charts
VNET's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume. The action shows panic selling. The stock may pause in coming session, but the momentum to the downside dominates.
VNET's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 70% versus a 19% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting VNET for a decline to $4.40 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $6.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VNET - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)