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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list a bit smaller today. Airline stocks breaking out. Bulls be selective. The stock market action suggest allocation money is moving into stocks. TTD found 86% of breakout issues from March list have followed through to the upside. That says money is moving into stocks aggressively.
Many recent breakouts are doing well.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LFL - ABOVE AVERAGE |
LFL, based in Chile, is a Latin American passenger and cargo airline. Annual revenues: $3.7 billion. Airline stocks are strong today and leading the breakouts lifting off is LFL which emerges from a three-month, cup-and-handle base today. The move comes with volume of 374,527 shares. The stock's average daily volume is 383,000 shares.
TTD highlighted LFL as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Wednesday.
LFL's 5-minute chart shows the stock gapping higher in the morning to fly over its breakpoint line. The stock lost some altitude around midday but managed to hold above the breakpoint.
LFL's stock has held up well even though there was a big earthquake in Chile recently.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks working its way higher from $17.69 to $18.05.
A key trade came in the morning when a big block of 7,800 shares crossed the tape at $17.94. That was up sharply from the prior block that went off at $17.72.
So, LFL has a solid breakout and that is complimented by strength in airline stocks.
The company provides domestic and international passenger services in Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Argentina and Brazil. It offers 15 destinations in Chile, 12 in Peru, 10 in Argentina, two in Ecuador, three in the United States, two in Europe, four in the South Pacific and 52 additional international destinations.
LFL holds interests in Austral Sociedad Concesionaria SA, Lufthansa Lan Technical Training SA and Concesionaria Chucumata SA.
LFL's stock has appreciated 130% the past 12 months (see performance chart). It has done better than the S&P 500 index which climbed 60% during the same period.
LFL's long-term chart shows the stock making a new high. It had soared from $1 to a peak of $17.59 in 2007. It went into a dive during the bear market hitting a bottom at $6.90. Afterwards, it rallied strongly. It is a leader in the airline sector, although it is not the largest of airlines and best known.
LFL's daily chart shows the stock rallying from 13 to 17. It then formed a double bottom or "W" base. The breakout today comes with a modest spread (range from high to low). Also volume is just average.
So, it will be important for LFL to show good follow through action within the next few days.
LFL's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bullish for several weeks. That is a plus.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has already broken out to the upside. That is bullish sign indicating that good buying has been taking place in the stock the past few weeks.
This year, analysts forecast LFL's earnings will soar 47% to $1 a share from 68 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 18.
Next year, they look for profits to climb 28% to $1.28 a share.
The company is showing good traffic growth and that is fueling profits.
For the upcoming first quarter, earnings should come in at 20 cents a share. Comparable results for a year ago were not available. In the prior quarter, LFL topped the consensus estimate of earnings by a wide margin. TTD sees chances for a mild upside surprise in earnings for the first quarter. Looking ahead to the second quarter, profits are expected to be 20 cents a share, up sharply from one cent a share a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: LFL's move to a new high could well bring in buying on Thursday. TTD is targeting LFL for a move to 22.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 16.80. TTD rates LFL a good intermediate-term play provided earnings stay on course.
Sponsorship: Very Good. Five funds with a 5-star rating are holders of the stock. 5-star rated Wells Fargo Advantage Small Cap Value Fund is the third largest holder. It was a recent buyer of 177,100 shares. LFL has 338.8 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Not available. Seven analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, up from 2 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Lan Airlines - (LFL) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 11 | 0 | 3 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ALK - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CAL- AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PHG - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HGSI - BELOW AVERAGE |
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Conservative Investors Bearish (swing traders) - Go To TTD Bargain Short Trade Setups - Monday, March 8 - Weekly - Feature short play Chart Industries (GTLS) 20.26 |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Still only a few plays on the bear side. Bears remain conservative and watchful.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
CBEY, based in Atlanta, provides managed Internet Protocol-based services and communications in the U.S. Annual revenues: $400 million. CBEY's stock falls sharply today in heavy trading. There was no news. However, the company did make a presentation to analysts at the Credit Suisse Communications conference in Florida on Tuesday. So far today, CBEY is trading 543,504 shares, double its normal daily volume of 285,000 shares. 
CBEY's stock fell sharply in the morning and continued lower through the early afternoon. The stock hit a low of 11.22. It then bounced slightly, but fell back again.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $13 to $11.52. The key bearish trade came on March 8 when a big block of 20,000 shares crossed at $12.42. That was down sharply from the prior block that traded at $13.
There were some blocks that wen off at a higher price than the prior block. So, the tape is a bit mixed in relation to the blocks.
CBEY’s services include local and long distance voice services, broadband Internet access, mobile voice and data, email, voicemail, and Web hosting.
It offers mobile voice and data services in conjunction with its landline-based services via its mobile virtual network operator.
This year, analysts forecast CBEY will show a loss of 5 cents a share compared with a loss of 8 cents a share a year ago.
CBEY's daily chart looks like a rollercoaster. However, most recently, the stock has cut below key support at 12. The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a steep decline indicating heavy selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CBEY for a drop to 9 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 12.50.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
