Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Thursday, March 10

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance -  Thursday, March 10

Ticker Tape Digest

Thursday - March 10, 2011

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

 1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays)  these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.   

  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4

Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side - Breakout list small as stock market sells off sharply. Bulls be selective. Stock market now in trading range with threat to breakdown further.  Bulls be cautious.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Thursday - March 10

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011 - Updated March 4)

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Semtech Corp. (SMTC) - 24.92, up 2.42 - Breakpoint 24.71

Posts Strong Quarterly Profits, TTD Targets 30

SMTC, based near Los Angeles, makes a wide range of analog and mixed- signal semiconductors. Annual revenues: $423 million. SMTC's stock bucks the stock market selloff today and breaks out from a 13-week, cup-and-handle base today. The move carries the stock to a six-year high. So far today, SMTC is trading 3.5 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 657,000 shares. The breakout was triggered by a strong earnings report.

  SMTC's 10-minute chart shows the stock climbing up to its breakpoint on Wednesday. Around midday on Thursday, the stock punched through the resistance and broke out.

  It held its breakout even though the stock market was selling off in the afternoon.

  SMTC reported that net for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31 climbed to 39 cents a share from 15 cents a year ago. The 39 cents topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 34 cents a share and also the highest estimate of 35 cents.

  The stock reacted very bullishly to the news.

  SMTC's tape action shows the recent block trades. One can see the price climbing from $22.50 to as high as $25.30.

  The key bullish trade today came when a block of 13,462 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $24.47 that was up from the prior block trade at $24.40. Note that bullish came right after the earnings. So, it showed some aggressive buying.

  SMTC  makes standard semiconductor products, rectifier and assembly products and other items.

 The company's devices are used for computer, communications, industrial, military-aerospace and automotive products.

 SMTC also provides a limited amount of wafer foundry services to other electronic component makers.

  SMTC's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 44% versus a 14% gain for the S&P 500 index.

  SMTC's long-term chart shows the stock soaring to an all-time high of 60 back in 2000. It then went into a long-term decline and formed a bottoming  pattern. The stock now is working higher   

  SMTC's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 16 to 24. It then put down a three-month saucer base. The breakout today comes with a widening of the spread which is bullish. Also, volume is strong.

  The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is neutral.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend, although it has flattened out a bit.

 Analysts look for SMTC to post a 25% gain in net for the fiscal year ending January of 2012. They look for $1.56 a share, up from $1.24 a year ago.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  just 15. TTD sees that as low given the current year's earnings growth rate. Going out to fiscal 2013, the Street projects a 16% gain in net.

  TTD sees upcoming earnings as the key to the stock's prospects.

  The Street is forecasting a robust 52% jump in SMTC's earnings for the fiscal first quarter ending April 30. They see net coming in at 34 cents a share, up from 22 cents a year ago.

  However, today SMTC said net for the quarter should come in between 41 to 44 cents a share. So, that is a big upside surprise. The company sees revenues of $117 to $121 million. That is more than the Street's forecast of $114 million.

  Strategy Opinion: SMTC is beating the Street with earnings. That is bullish!. TTD is targeting SMTC for a move to 30 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 22 giving it room. TTD rates SMTC a good intermediate-term play.

  Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Buffalo Small Cap Fund with a 5.2% stake. However, it was a recent seller of 850,100 shares. The largest buyer of the stock was 3-star rated Invesco Small Cap Growth Fund which purchased 233,944 shares.

  Insider Activity:  Neutral. Not much activity lately. Eight analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, the same as three months ago.

Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 20 - max.

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Large number of breakdown stocks today as stock market falls broadly. Bears be aggressive.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX) - 11.28, down 0.84

Street Sees Big Drop In Net, TTD Sees Drop to 8.80

 XRTX, based in Havant, produces enterprise data storage subsystems and provides network technology. Annual revenues: $1.6 billion. XRTX's stock breaks below key technical support today to setoff a TTD short play. The stock has been acting very bearishly this year. So far today, XRTX is trading 1 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 366,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  TTD highlighted XRTX as a short at our midsession show on the Web Thursday.

 XRTX will report net for the fiscal second quarter ending February 28 on Thursday March 31. The Street is looking for XRTX's net to tumble 77% to 19 cents a share from 85 cents a year ago. The stock appears to be vulnerable to more on the downside.

  Today, the stock fell sharply in the morning. It touched a low of 10.86 in the morning. The stock then rallied slightly.

  The tape action shows clear distribution as the price for the recent block trades has declined from $12.15 to as low as $11.21.

  A key bearish trade was a block of 18,217 shares that crossed the tape at $11.90 (duplicated). That was down from the prior block trade at $12.13.

 XRTX designs and makes technology that provides their OEM and disk drive manufacturer customers with data storage products to support high-performance storage and data communication networks.

  Besides expected lower net for the second quarter, the Street looks for net for the fiscal third quarter ending May 30 to drop 84% to 22 cents a share from $1.42 a year ago. Overall, net for the year ending November should tumble 57% to $1.77 a share from $4.07 a year ago.

   XRTX's daily chart shows the stock breaking down in early January. The stock tried to form a bottom around 12. However, today, it falls again today undercutting key technical support with expanding volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a clear down trend. It shows no significant buying in weeks. That is good for bears.

   Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting XRTX for a decline to 8.80 with in the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 12.40. TTD sees the stock with potential for a large breakdown since the stock is acting weak even before the release of earnings news.

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)