By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small and of low quality as stock market falls sharply. Bulls watch all positions and be patient.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SVU - BELOW AVERAGE
SVU, based in Eden Prairie, Min., operates a chain of supermarkets. Annual revenues: $17.4 billion. SVU's stock breaks out today from a seven-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a three-year high. The breakout was aided by bullish recommendation by Deutsche Bank.
TTD highlighted SVU as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
The stock is rated as a laggard by TTD because it was as high as 50 back in 2007. It had fallen until 2012, but has since made a turn up on its long-term chart (see TTD's chart).
SVU is featured because of small number of breakouts Tuesday resulting from the stock market's steep decline.
SVU's stock is trading a heavy 9 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 2.2 million shares.
The stock pushed higher in the morning aided by the brokerage recommendation.
It cleared its breakpoint, pulled back a bit midday and then resumed its push higher in the afternoon.
The stock closed near its high for the session which is bullish.
SVU's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks pushing higher from $10.19 in the prior session to as high as $10.77 late in the day.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 88,901 shares crossed the tape at $10.40.
That was up from the prior block trade at $10.19 on 60,444 shares.
There was a block of 100,000 shares that came at $10.35. That was on a down tick from the prior trade of 100 shares at $10.36.
Finally, late in the say a massive block of 167,403 shares crossed at $10.65. That was up from the prior block at $10.63 on 28,297 shares.
So the tape showed good institutional buying, but also some selling earlier in the day. The strong buying late in the day though, we believe is more important.
SVU operates the Cub Foods, Shop `n Save, Shoppers Food Warehouse, Metro and biggs.
It also sells food and non-food products at wholesale throughout the United States to retail food stores, mass merchants and through other arrangements. The company's plans to pen more new stores.
SVU's 12-month performance chart shows SVU appreciating 60% versus a 15% gain for the S&P 500 index.
There was some heavy insider selling in the stock in January.
SVU's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 12.60 back in 2003 to a peak of 49.78 by 2007, the top in the prior bull market.
Afterwards, SVU fell steadily due in part to the bear market. The stock finally hit a bottom at $1.68 in 2012. Since the, SVU's stock has been working higher.
SVU's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 8 back in October to a peak near 10 by January.
The stock then put down an ideal flat base above its rising 50-day moving average line.
The breakout today is ideal coming with an expansion in volume.
Of course, the stock was hyped by the broker buy. It was also refuted in a way by a report by another analyst..
SVU's daily chart shows the TTD momentum indicator (top) as strong.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is working higher but lags a bit.
Analysts are forecasting SVU's earnings for the fiscal year ending in February of 2015 will climb 20% to 69 cents a share from 58 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 15.
Going out to fiscal 2016, profits are expected to be up only 5% to 73 cents a share from the anticipated 69 cents this year.
However, near-term quarterly results should be good.
Profits for the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter ending in February should climb 19% to 21 cents a share from 18 cents a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 23 cents a share.
SVU topped the consensus Street estimate five out of the past seven quarters. (see table)
Net for the fiscal first quarter ending in May should lift 22% to 22 cents a share from 18 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting SVU for a move to 13.50. A protective stop can be placed near 9.90.
TTD rates SVU more of a trading play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund buyer recently was 4-star rated Target Small Capitalization Value T Fund which purchased 2.1 million shares. It has a 0.83% stake.
Also, the 3-star rated TIAA-CREF Small-Cap Equity Institutional Fund was a recent purchaser of 782,300 shares as a new position. It has a 0.30% interest.
SVU has 258 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 65% of the stock and insiders 33%.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were heavy sellers in January at $9.50 a share. The seller was Jana Partners LLC.
Currently, 12 analysts follow the stock, one has a buy, down from 2 three months ago. SVU has a book value of negative $2.54 a share.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Supervalu Inc. - (SVU)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MLVF - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SCAI - BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 17
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Short list swells Tuesday as stock market declines sharply. Bears be selective. Stock market pulling back now after strong run up.
STX, based in Ireland, makes hard disc drives and other electronics products. Annual revenues: $14.2 billion. STX's stock falls sharply today and undercuts key technical support. So far today, STX is trading 6.7 million shares, double its average daily volume of 3 million shares.
TTD sees more on the downside.
STX's stock fell steadily in the morning along with the stock market. It hit an intraday low of 54.17 around noon.
The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day unable to rally effectively.
STX's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $56.98 in the prior session to as low as $54.47.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 31,559 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $56.67.
That was down from the prior block trade at $56.98 on 23,819 shares.
STX makes hard disc drives, solid state drives and solid state hybrid drives. It offers a range of disk drive products for the enterprise, client computer and client non-compute market applications.
The Company also provides data storage services for businesses, including online backup, data protection and recovery solutions.
This fiscal year ending in June analysts are forecasting a 2% decline in profits to $4.93 a share from $5.04 a year ago. For the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending in March, they expect a 17% drop in net to $1.11 a share from $1.34 a year before.
STX's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from a peak of 69 in December to around 55. Today, the stock cuts below key support with volume picking up. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting STX for a decline to 47 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 56.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - STX - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)