Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout and Leading Stocks - Thursday, March 10, 2016 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 7, 2016 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small and very selective. Bulls be conservative. Stock market looks vulnerable to the downside.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DG - AVERAGE |
DG, based in Goodlettsville, Ten., is a discount retailer of household merchandise. Annual revenues: $20 billion. DG's stock breaks out Thursday from a seven-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
TTD highlighted DG as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
So far today, DG is trading 10.6 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 2.8 million shares.
DG's 10-minute chart shows the stock gapping higher in the morning and clearing its breakpoint line.
The stock continued to work higher. It closed near its high for the session of 86.14.
DG reported net for the fiscal fourth quarter ended in January rose to $1.30 a share.
That topped the prior year's $1.17. It also surpassed the Street consensus estimate of $1.26 a share.
DG's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $75.07 in the prior session to as high as $83.23 Thursday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 92,725 shares crossed the tape at $79.77.
That was up from the prior block at $75.21 on 124,876 shares.
Then near the close a massive block of 184,075 shares crossed the tape at $83.23.
That was up from the prior block at $81.54 on 25,000 shares.
That showed aggressive institutional buying.
DG sells a variety of merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, Midwestern, and eastern U.S.
The products include paper and cleaning products such as paper towels, bath tissues, paper dinnerware, trash and storage bags, and laundry and other home cleaning supplies.
It also sells packaged foods like cereals, canned soups and vegetables, condiments, spices, sugar, and flour and perishables items like milk, eggs, bread, frozen meals, beer, and wine/
DG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 16% versus a 3% decline in the stock market.
There was some light insider buying a few months ago. (green bars on chart)
DG's long-term chart shows the stock coming public back in 2009 at 23. The stock has worked steadily higher past several years having made almost a fourfold move.
DG's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 60 back in November to around 76 by February.
The stock then put down a base and Thursday gaps higher with strong volume.
That is an impressive breakout.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending higher nicely.
That shows good buying.
Net for the fiscal year ending in January of 2017 is expected to rise 11% to $4.49 a share from $3.95 in fiscal 2016.
That estimate could be boosted by analysts.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 18 based on projected fiscal 2017 net.
Profits for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending in April should climb 13% to 95 cents a share from 84 cents a year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 97 cents a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DG for a move to 95 off this breakout.
A protective stop can be placed near 79.
TTD sees chances for a stock split which could boost the stock.
The company has never split its stock.
TTD rates DG an average intermediate-term play
Sponsorship: Excellent. A key fund buyer recently was the T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund which purchased 500,000 shares. The 5-star rated fund has a 1.4% stake.
Also, the 5-star rated Voya Large Cap Growth Portfolio S Fund was a recent purchaser of 409,926 shares. It has a 0.5% stake.
DG has 290 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 91% of the stock and insiders 5%.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were recent buyers around $70 late last year. They were sellers later in the year around the same price.
Currently, 28 analysts follow the stock, 20 have a buy, up from 18 three months ago. Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock in February.
DG has a book value of $18.37 a share.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Dollar General Corp. - (DG) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AGM - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SHBI - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CMN - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MVG - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks Thursday. However, some very good looking plays with damaged fundamentals. Bears can be venturesome.
TTD's feature short from Wednesday was Ophthotech Corp. (OPHT) at 41.80. Thursday, the stock has fallen to 40.60 and is working very well for bears.
RAVN, based in Sioux Falls, S.D., sells agricultural products. Annual revenues: $295 million. RAVN's stock falls sharply Thursday and undercuts key technical support. The breakdown was due to disappointing earnings. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted RAVN as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
The company came in with fourth quarter earnings of 3 cents a share, down from 16 cents a year ago.
Sales for the quarter fell 41%.
The Street was forecasting fourth quarter net at 10 cents a share. Results disappointed.
RAVN's stock gapped lower in the morning and continued south during the day. It touched an intraday low of 13.04.
Volume for the day swelled to 1.7 million shares, 12 times its average daily volume of 45,000 shares.
RAVN's tape action shows the block trades falling in price from $16.57 in the prior session to as low as $13.50 on Thursday.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 15,000 shares crossed the tape at $15.04.
That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $16.57 on 11,039 shares.
RAVN makes and services agriculture products and information management tools for growers to enhance farm yields.
Its products include field computers, application controls, GPS-guidance and assisted-steering systems, automatic boom controls, yield monitoring planter controls, seeder and harvest controls and slingshot, an integrated RTK and information platform.
RAVN's daily chart shows the stock falling sharply on big volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower indicating heavy selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting RAVN for a decline to 10.40 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 14.20.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RAVN - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)