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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Friday, March 11

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance -  Friday, March 11

Go To Prior Days TTD "Reports"

Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 7


Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks"


Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short


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Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - March 11, 2011


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance

Bullish

Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.

(See Performance)


Aggressive Investor Bullish-  "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."

  (See Performance)


Conservative Investors  "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term."  Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.

(See Performance)


Bearish

Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns

  (See Performance)

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

 1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays)  these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

Quote or chart

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.   


Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5

Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side - Breakout list small even as stock market rebounds. Bulls be selective. Stock market now in trading range. There is still a threat of a further breakdown.  Bulls be cautious.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 


Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Friday - March 11

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011 - Updated March 4)


Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc. (ULTA)  - 45.94, up 3.83 - Breakpoint 44.28

Earnings Top Estimates, TTD Targets 55

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ULTA  - ABOVE AVERAGE

 ULTA, based in Bolingbrook, Il., sells beauty products to salons and also provides salon services in the U.S. Annual revenues: $1.4 billion. ULTA's stock, a star performer since turning higher in 2009, breaks out today from a five-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. The move was powered by ULTA reporting better-than-expected earnings. TTD recently featured the stock as a good one to accumulate.

  So far today, ULTA is trading 3 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 547,000 shares.

  ULTA's 10-minute chart shows the stock breaking out in the morning on strong volume. The stock pushed comfortably above its breakpoint line.

  ULTA reported net income from operations for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31 rose to 48 cents a share from 34 cents a year ago. The 48 cents topped the consensus Street estimate of 44 cents a share.

  The stock responded bullishly to the news. i

  The stock has a beta of 1.65 versus 1.00 for the stock market. So, the stock can move.

  Some of the young ladies we speak with like the company's stores and its products. .

    TTD's clip of the tape shows the tape action of the big block trades. The price for the block trades climbed from $41.26 to a peak of $46.50

  The key bullish trade came today when 15,000 shares crossed the tape at $45.20. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $41.60. The tape action showed aggressive institutional buying off the earnings news.  

 ULTA  is a beauty retailer that provides one-stop shopping for prestige, mass and salon products and salon services in the United States.

  The company offers about 21,000 beauty products organized by category in open, self-service displays to encourage its customers to test and explore the products. ULTA offer a full-service salon and a range of salon hair care products in all of its stores.

  ULTA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 110% versus a 15% gain for the S&P 500 index.

  ULTA's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in late 2007 - just in time for the bear market. The stock traded around 33 and then took a dive to 4 by early 2009. However, it has since bounced back strongly. The stock hit a new high Friday. That is very bullish and could bring in more buying from the new high crowd on Monday.

  ULTA's daily chart shows the stock rallying from 25 to 44. The stock then formed a flat base above its rising 50-day moving average line. That showed it remained in a strong up trend.  

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending sideways and is now starting to turn up.

  ULTA said net for the fiscal first quarter should come in between 29 to 31 cents a share. That is above the Street's current estimate of 29 cents a share. That helped the stock on Friday.

  For fiscal 2012 ending January 30, analysts forecast a 22% jump in net to $1.42 a share from $1.16  a year ago. Analysts have been bumping up their estimates. TTD expects them to move them up again.

 The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 31. TTD sees that as a reasonable valuation.

   Going out to fiscal 2013 ending in January, the Street looks for a 22% gain in net to $1.73 a share

  Strategy Opinion: ULTA is a leading stock breaking out. TTD is targeting ULTA for a move to $55.  A protective stop can be placed near 42 . TTD rates ULTA a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.

  Sponsorship: Excellent.. The largest fund holder is Wells Fargo Advantage Growth Fund with a 2.4% stake. The 5-star rated fund was a recent buyer of 175,000 shares. The second largest fund holder is 5-star rated Fidelity Contrafund with a 2% stake. It was a recent buyer of 256,520 shares. ULTA has 59.5 million shares outstanding.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers of the stock using stock options. They turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $44.19. Right now, 10 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, the same as three months ago.



Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrances Inc.  - (ULTA)  
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES
Volume YES  
Tick Volume YES
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES    
Base - A-D YES
Earnings-Quarterly YES  
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES  
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 14 0 0

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BIG  - AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ANIK  - BELOW AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - JCP - BELOW AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SPPI  - BELOW AVERAGE


Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 10.

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side -  Good number of breakdown stocks today even though the stock market advances. Bears be selective as stock market still has potential to remain in a trading range. TTD's short from Thursday was  Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX) - 11.28, down 0.84. Today, the stock has slipped to 11.13 and is working well for bears.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short


TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Aeropostale Inc. (ARO) - 23.10, down 1.53

Earnings Disappoint, TTD Sees Decline to 19

ARO, based in New York, sells clothes especially for young people. Annual revenues: $2.4 billion. ARO's stock falls sharply today in heavy trading. The company reported earnings below Street estimates. So far today, ARO is trading 8.3 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 1.8 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  ARO reported net for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31 declined to 95 cents a share from 99 cents a year ago. The 95 cents was the consensus estimate of 97 cents a share. So, they disappointed. The stock responded bearishly to the news.

  ARO's stock fell in the morning. It hit a low of 22.32. The stock then lifted slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see a key bearish trade coming in the morning when a block of 82,716 shares crossed the tape at $22.61. The price for the blocks edged higher as the stock market rallied strongly, especially late in the day.

 ARO maintains control over its proprietary brands by designing, sourcing, marketing and selling all of its own merchandise. Its products can only be purchased in its Aéropostale stores and online at www.Aéropostale.com.

 The company currently operates 885 Aéropostale stores in 49 states and Puerto Rico, 36 Aéropostale stores in Canada and 2 P.S. from Aéropostale stores..

  This fiscal year ending January of 2012, analysts forecast only a 1% increase in net to $2.56 a share from $2.54 a year ago. Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending in April is expected to be down 10%.

  ARO's daily chart shows the stock falling in August. The stock then tried to form a bottom. However, today's gap down on volume is very bearish.

   Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ARO for a decline to 19 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 24.50.


                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ARO -  BELOW AVERAGE


TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)