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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Monday, March 8

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance -  Friday, March 12

Go To Prior Days TTD "Reports"

Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature -Commvault (CVLT)-21.73 - Monday, March 8

Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays -Feature-Blackrock (BLK) 219..83 - Monday March 8


Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks"


Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short


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Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - March 12, 2010


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance

Bullish

Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.

(See Performance)


Aggressive Investor Bullish-  "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."

  (See Performance)


Conservative Investors  "Bargain Buy Trades"  (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets

 (See Performance)


Bearish

Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns

  (See Performance)


Conservative Bearish Investors  (swing traders).  "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.

  (See Performance)

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long  These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.

  TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

Quote or chart

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 9

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - Breakout list modest with only a few good looking plays. The stock market pauses. The NASDAQ has had a strong run and is entitled to a rest. Bulls remain aggressive postured.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE  Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish


Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. (ULTA) -22.78, up 1.22 - Breakpoint 21.75

Profits top Street Estimates, TTD Targets 27.50

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ULTA - ABOVE AVERAGE

   ULTA, based in Bolingbrook, Il., sells beauty products to salons and also provides salon services in the U.S. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. ULTA's stock breaks out strongly from a 10-week, cup-and-handle base today. The move was triggered by ULTA coming in with strong than expected earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 30. So far today, ULTA is trading 1.9 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 329,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted ULTA as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Friday.

  ULTA's 5-minute chart shows the stock moving over its breakpoint in pre-market trading. The stock dipped back to the breakpoint line in the morning.

  However, it then rallied strongly and held comfortably over the breakpoint through the afternoon.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows ULTA's block trades recently.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $21.02 to $22.52.

  A key trade came in the morning when a big block of 38,883 shares crossed at $21.91 (price duplicated). That was up sharply from the prior block that went off at $21.02. That showed aggressive institutional buying off the earnings news.

  ULTA reported net for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31 came in at 34 cents a share, up 62% from the 21 cents a share a year ago. The 34 cents topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 30 cents a share.

  For the year fiscal 2010 (January 31, ULTA posted net of 68 cents a share, up 55% from the 44 cents a share a year ago.

  ULTA  is a beauty retailer that provides one-stop shopping for prestige, mass and salon products and salon services in the United States.

  The company offers about 21,000 beauty products organized by category in open, self-service displays to encourage its customers to test and explore the products. ULTA offer a full-service salon and a range of salon hair care products in all of its stores.

  ULTA's 6-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 58% versus a 15% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock has a beta of 1.8 which makes it almost twice as volatile as the stock market.

   ULTA's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in late 2007 - just in time for the bear market. The stock traded around 33 and then took a dive to 4 by early 2009. However, it has since bounced back very strongly.   

  ULTA's daily chart shows the stock rally from 11 to 21 - a strong move. The stock then formed a cup-and-handle base. Today's breakout is ideal. The stock shows a widening of the spread (range from high to low) and an expansion in volume.

  ULTA's technicals are ideal too.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) broke out to the upside pride to the price. That was a good lead indicator. It showed money was flowing into the stock before the news came out on the strong profits.

  The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.

  This fiscal year ending January 31, 2011, analysts forecast a 17% increase in net to 80 cents a share from the 68 cents a share in fiscal 2010. The stock sells with a price earnings ratio of 28 based on 2011 estimated net.

  Analysts expect a big jump in net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending April 30.

  The Street is forecasting an 88% surge in net to 15 cents a share from 8 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 16 cents a share.

  Strategy Opinion: ULTA's breakout today is strong coming with a big upside surprise with earnings. TTD is targeting ULTA for a move to $27.50. A protective stop can be placed near 21. TTD rates ULTA a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.

  Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is Delaware Trend Fund, 3-star rated,  with a 0.94% stake. ULTA has 58.1 million shares outstanding.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders were light sellers of the stock recently. They sold around $21.62. Right now, 11 analysts follow the stock, 7 have a buy, up from 6 three months ago.


  


  Stock Performance Chart for 6 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

   


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc. -  (ULTA)

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume YES    
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term     YES
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES    
Fund Sponsorship     YES
Total Score 12 0 2

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


  


Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AGU - AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KIRK - AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FST - AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -CEDC - AVERAGE


Conservative Investors Bearish (swing traders) - Go To TTD Bargain Short Trade Setups - Monday, March 8 - Weekly - Feature short play Chart Industries (GTLS) 20.26

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today -  5

Stocks Screened - 8,2007

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.

Bear Side -  Still just a few breakdown stocks so far today. Bears remain conservative and selective.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

  


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

American Dairy Inc. (ADY) - 20.24, down 0.66

Drops Below Key Support, Net Coming Tuesday, TTD Sees Slide to 16

  ADY, based in China,  produces milk powder, soybean milk powder, and related dairy products in China. ADY's stock slides below key near-term support today with an expansion in volume. The company will report earnings for the fourth quarter on Tuesday. The Street is forecasting a big drop in net. So far today, ADY is trading 443,804 shares, triple its normal daily volume of 169,000 shares.

  ADY's stock fell at the opening with heavy volume. It hit a bottom at 20.82 around noon. The stock then trended sideways unable to mount a rally.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $21.79 to $20.32. The tape action showed clear institutional selling pressure prior to next week's earnings report.

  ADY makes products that are formulated for particular ages, dietary needs and health concerns.

 It  over 200 company owned milk collection stations, six production facilities with an aggregate milk powder production capacity of 1,220 tons per day and an extensive distribution network that reaches over 50,000 retail outlets throughout China.

 The Company’s products fall into four main product categories: milk powder, soybean powder, rice cereal and walnut products.

 Analysts forecast net for the fourth quarter will drop 92% to 3 cents a share from 41 cents a year ago. The lowest estimate on the Street is a loss of 17 cents a share.

  Looking out to 2010, the Street is projecting a 24% decline in net to $1.73 a share from $2.26 a year ago.

  ADY's daily chart shows the stock trying to make a bottom for the past few months. However, today it shows important signs of weakness. The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bearish for a few weeks. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a down trend. That shows clear selling pressure.

 Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ADY for a decline to 16 within the next few months, or sooner. The earnings report and forecast will be important. A protective stop buy can be placed near  21.50. 



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)