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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 12 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small number of breakouts and very few leaders moving out. Bulls be selective. Stock market now trying to consolidated within an overall up trend.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CSU - AVERAGE |
CSU, based in Dallas is a major provider of senior living services in the U.S. Annual revenues: $263 million. CSU's stock breaks out today from a seven-week flat base. So far today, CSU is trading 147,858 shares, about double its normal daily volume of 79,000 shares. The company is poised to show a significant acceleration in quarterly earnings growth. That is very bullish. 
CSU's 10-minute chart shows the stock pushing higher in the morning and crossing decisively its breakpoint line.
The stock spent the better part of the session comfortably above the breakpoint. So, it solidified its breakout.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $7.98 to $9.02.
A key bullish block crossed on Monday morning when 12,480 shares was traded at $9.02. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $8.65,
The tape action showed aggressive institutional buying interest.
CSU is one of the largest providers of senior living services in the United States.
The company owns interests in or operates 33 communities in 17 states with a capacity of approximately 5,000 residents.
The operations include 17 communities in which it owns interests, 15 communities that it manages for third parties. CSU also operates one home health care agency.
CSU's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating just 5% versus a 4% loss for the S&P 500 index. However, note the green bars on the chart show some recent heavy insider buying. That is a bullish omen.
CSU's long-term chart shows the stock trading as high as 16 back in 1998. The stock fell to around 2 in 2001. It then soared to 12 peaking in 2007. It then went into another bear phase falling back to 2. It has since resumed a new bull market phase. It is now in a long-term up trend.
CSU's daily chart shows the stock moving up from 6 back in November to a around 9 in February. The stock then put down a flat base with one shakeout to the downside.
The stock has since rallied strongly from that mini-selloff
The breakout is supported by good technicals. The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has broken out to a new peak. That is good confirmation that the breakout is supported by good buying.
TTD is drawn to CSU because of its strong earnings outlook.
The quarterly profit growth will accelerate.
Analysts expect net for the first quarter to climb 17% and then in the second quarter jump 67%.
Net for the first quarter should rise to 7 cents a share from 6 cents a year ago. CSU tends to come in with a penny a share of the Street consensus estimate. Net for the second quarter should jump to 10 cents a share from 6 cents a year ago.
Overall, profits for the year should surge 54% to 38 cents a share from 25 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 25. TTD sees that as low given the earnings growth rate. Going out to 2013, earnings are projected to climb 32%.
The company is expanding via acquisitions. 
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CSU for a move to 12 off this breakout. The stock is low priced but trades on the NYSE. So, it should get some institutional visibility.
A protective stop can be placed near 8.40. TTD rates CSU a very good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Value Fund with a big 7.2% stake. It was a recent buyer of 6,281 shares. Also, Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund, 3-star rated, recently bought 30,000 shares. Institutions hold 81% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been granted options and exercised some of the back in September at $1.80. They have not done much selling. Currently, two analysts follow the stock and both have a strong buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Capital Senior Living Corp. - (CSU) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EFX - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HOG - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MCO - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TSLA - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today as stock market is mixed. Market consolidating within an up trend. Bears remain selective and watchful. TTD's short on Friday was Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc. (HMIN) at 28.27. Today, the stock has declined to 27.22 and is working well for bears.
AU, based in South Africa is a major producer of gold. Annual revenues: $6.6 billion. AU's stock slides below key technical support today setting off a TTD trading short play. So far today, AU is trading 937.884 shares. Its average daily volume is 1.6 million shares. AU's stock has been working lower in recent months after peaking at 52 in November. 
TTD highlighted AU as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.
The stock headed lower in the morning touching 39.50. It then trended sideways into the afternoon with a shakeout down to 39.46.
AU's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks working lower from $40 to $39.67.
A key bearish trade came when a block of 40,000 shares crossed the tape at $39.92. That was down from the prior block trade at $39.95. The tape action showed some heavy institutional selling.
AU is one of the largest gold producers at 7 million ounces a year, with reserves of 126 m oz.
The company has operations in six countries on three continents, some of which are joint ventures, as well as exploration activities in ten countries.
This year, analysts are forecasting that AU will show a 42% increase in net to $4.69 a share from $3.30 a year ago. Going out to 2013, they expect net to rise 13% to $5.30 a share from the anticipated $4.69 this year.
AU's daily charts shows the stock declining from 47 in February to 39. The stock is now edging below key technical support.
Strategy Opinion: TTD sees AU as a trading short. We are targeting the stock for a decline to 34 within the next few months, or sooner. TTD would look to take bear profits at that point. A protective stop buy can be placed near 41.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AU - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
