Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday. March 12, 2014
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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday. March 12, 2014 |
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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 10, 2013 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market
rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs. 
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small list of breakouts as stock market advance stalls. Bulls be selective. Stock market liable to pull back. Oil stocks breaking out today.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VLO - ABOVE AVERAGE |
VLO, based San Antonio, Tex., operates oil refineries and retail outlets. Annual revenues: $138 billion. VLO's stock breaks out today from a ten-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a six-year high. Selected oil stocks were strong on Wednesday. So far today, VLO is trading 13 million shares. Its average daily volume is 8.5 million shares. 
TTD highlighted VLO as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
VLO's 10-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in the morning and clearing its breakpoint. 
The stock then pulled back, held above its breakpoint and then proceeded to work higher.
It closed near its high for the session, which is bullish. (see 10-minute chart)
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $53.51 in the prior session to as high as $55.29 Wednesday.
There were two key bullish trades.
The first was when a block of 166,561 shares crossed the tape at $53.92. That was up from the prior block at $53.67. 
The second one was near the close. That is when a massive block of 701,429 shares crossed the tape at $55.29.
That was up from the prior block at $55.
VLO owns and operates refineries in the United States and Canada with a combined throughput capacity of two million BPD, making it one of the nation's top refiners of petroleum products.
The company is also one of the nation's leading retail operators with retail outlets in the U.S. and Canada under various brand names including Diamond Shamrock, Ultramar, Valero, Beacon and Total.
VLO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 32% versus a 20% gain for the S&P 500 index.
VLO's long-term chart shows the stock soaring from 9 back in 2003 to a an all-time high of $71.91 in 2007, the peak in the prior bull market.
The stock then took a nosedive in the following bear market falling to 12.74. The stock then formed a bottom over the next three years. It turned higher in 2012 and has since soared to a six-year high.
VLO's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 35 back in October to a peak at 53 in January.
The stock then put down a flat base,
The breakout today clears the resistance line.
The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) broke out before the price of the stock. That shows good underlying buying, which is bullish.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is very bullish.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 35% jump in VLO's earnings to $5.95 a share from $4.42 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 9. TTD sees that as attractive to value investors.
Going out to 2015, the Street projects a 5% increase in VLO's earnings to $6.27 a share from the anticipated $5.95 a share for this year.
TTD's sees the acceleration in quarterly earnings growth being a key near-term driver for the stock.
Earnings for the first quarter should climb 14% and then soar 117% in the second quarter. 
For the first quarter, analysts are looking for net of $1.35 a share, up from $1.18 a year ago. The highest estimate is at $1.98 a share. That shows some are looking for a possible big quarter.
VLO topped Wall Street consensus estimate the past two quarters by 5% and 36%. (see table)
Second quarter profits should leap to $1.96 a share from 90 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting VLO for a move to 65 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 52.
TTD rates VLO an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The top six fund holders all have a rating over 4-star. The largest fund buyer recently was the 4-star rated T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Value Fund which purchased 660,196 shares.
Also, the 4-star rated T. Rowe Price Value Fund was a recent purchaser of 425,000 shares. It is the second largest holder with a 1.17% stake.
VLO has 533 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 87% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders were able to buy the stock at $8 a share. They sold recently at $51 to $53 a share. Currently, 13 analysts follow the stock, 10 have a buy, down from 12 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Valero Energy Corp. - (VLO) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MPC - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PSX - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NSC - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FMI - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Short list expands today with some interesting big name plays. Bears be selective. TTD's short from Tuesday was Marketo Inc. (MKTO) at 36.35. Today, the stock has dropped to 35.23 and is working well for bears.
AEO, based in Pittsburgh, is a specialty retailer of clothes for young people. Annual revenues: $3.4 billion. AEO, a lagging stock, breaks below key technical support today. So far today, AEO is trading a heavy 12.3 million shares, more than double its average daily volume of 4.9 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted AEO as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
AEO's stock moved lower in the morning to undercut its support line. the stock hit an intraday low of 12.56 around midday.
The stock trended sideways in the afternoon unable to stage a rally.
AEO's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $13.10 in the prior session to as low as $12.68 Wednesday.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 158,273 shares crossed the tape at $12.68. That was down from the prior block at $12.72.
The size of the block indicated heavy institutional selling pressure.
AEO sells clothes and footwear fore men and women between 16 and 34. The company sources, designs, and markets a line of classics like jeans, khakis, and T-shirts under its American Eagle Outfitters and AE brand names for exclusive sale in its stores.
The company is focused on several core brand and merchandising strategies to differentiate the company from competition.
Analysts are forecasting a 22% decline in AEO's earnings for the first quarter ending in April. However, for all fiscal 2015 ending in January they expect profits to rise 14%.
AEO's daily chart shows the stock falling sharply in the prior session. Today, it undercuts key support. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a down trend. That indicates clear heavy selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AEO for a decline to 9.50 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 13.70.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AEO - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
