Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 11, 2019 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Tuesday - March 12, 2019
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 12
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Bulls have several good breakout buys.
Stock market - Market averages are bullish in all time sectors, except for the daily Dow which is bearish.
Comment - TTD sees stock market in a consolidation phase.
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Tuesday - INSW, IPI, NOG and SWCH.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ZEN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
ZEN, based in San Francisco, produces software. Annual revenues: $599 million. ZEN's stock drives higher Tuesday and breaks out from a five-week flat base.
The move carries ZEN to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
So far today, ZEN is trading 2.3 million shares. Its average daily volume is 2 million shares.
ZEN's stock backed off slightly in the morning However, it came on strong and cut across its breakpoint line in the morning.
In the afternoon, ZEN drove to an intraday peak of $81.49. It closed near its high for the session. That is bullish.
Tape Action
ZEN's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $78.52 in the morning to as high as $81.40 by the close.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 16,370 shares crossed the tape at $79.59.
That was up from the prior block late on Monday at $79.21 on 63,518 shares.
Near the close a massive block of 142,009 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $81.40.
That was up from the prior block at $81.30 on 15,000 shares.
Business
ZEN is a software development company.
The Zendesk products are built to work together to help firms manage customer relationships.
They share a common interface and share services infrastructure and a common customer data platform.
ZEN's products are developed using agile software techniques, and are designed to innovate on customer feedback obtained through beta and Early Access Programs .
Charts
ZEN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 70% versus a breakeven for the stock market. The stock is a leader.
Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $9 to $23 a share.
They were recent sellers at $62 to $78 a share.
ZEN's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2014 at $15.95 a share. The stock traded in a range between $30 and $14 until 2017. Then the stock broke out and has since driven sharply higher.
It hit a peak at $72 in October of last year, but then fell back to $45 on the stock market sell off. However, since then ZEN has surged to a new all time high at $81.49.
ZEN's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $50 back in December to a peak near $80 by February.
The stock put down a short flat base.
The breakout Tuesday just clears the breakpoint with modest volume.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year analysts are forecasting a 36% jump in net to 30 cents a share from the 22 cents the year before.
The stock has price-earnings ratio of 270 based on this year's projected net. That is extremely high.
Looking out to 2020, analysts predict a 125% gain in net to 67 cents a share from the anticipated 30 cents this year.
Quarterly earnings growth will show an acceleration. That is bullish.
Net for the first quarter is expected to rise 50% to 3 cents a share from 2 cents the year before.
The highest estimate is at 5 cents a share. The company topped the consensus estimate the past four quarters buy 7 cents a share, 5 cents, 3 cents and 5 cents. That is impressive.
Profits for the second quarter are expected to jump 67% to 5 cents a share from the 3 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ZEN for a move to $100 within the next few months
A protective stop can be placed near $82.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Bullish.
Suitability: Extremely Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - ZEN scored some good gains off some of its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish - ZEN rose 7 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Bullish. - ZEN averaged a gain of 4.6% in March and a gain of 3.5% in April the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
25% |
1/18/2019 |
65.03 |
81.40 |
Still in play |
11% |
8/23/2018 |
64.59 |
71.94 |
9/14/2018 |
19% |
5/2/2018 |
49.91 |
59.43 |
6/14/2018 |
63% |
1/19/2018 |
36.30 |
59.43 |
6/14/2018 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Zendesk Inc. (ZEN) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - QNTA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AVB - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - V - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ATO - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - ....Small list of breakdown stocks Tuesday, but some interesting plays for aggressive bears.
TTD's short from Friday was New Fortress Energy (NFE) at $12.76. Monday NFE falls to $12.47.
FFIV, based in Seattle, produces software for a variety uses. Annual revenues: $2.2 billion. FFIV's stock falls sharply Tuesday as analysts voiced concern about a software acquisition. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, FFIV is trading a heavy 2.3 million shares, almost four times its average daily volume of 578,000 shares.
FFIV's stock gapped lower in the morning and undercut key technical support.
The stock then trended sideways through most of the day. It weakened a bit in the final hour. It was unable to rally effectively.
JP Morgan lowered its rating on the stock to neutral.
Tape Action
FFIV's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $161.68 in the prior session to as low as $149.53 late in the day.
A key bearish trades came in the morning when a block of 13,518 shares crossed the tape at $153.64.
That was down sharply from the prior block on Friday at $161.68 on 15,995 shares.
Business
FFIV makes software for special applications
The company develops application delivery networking products that optimize the security, performance and availability of network applications, servers and storage systems.
FFIV sells in the U.S., Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and the Asia Pacific.
Earnings:
Net for the fiscal year ending in September is expected to climb 9% to $10.77 a share from the $9.87 the year before.
Net for the fiscal second quarter endingi in March is projected to rise 10% to $2.55 a share from the $2.31 the year before.
Charts:
FFIV's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower and cutting below key support with big volume.
The move extends a down trend from a peak at $199 in September.
FFIV's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 2% versus a flat performance from the stock market. However, FFIV has been trending lower in performance since October.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting FFIV for a decline to $130 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $157.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's probability research of Prior Performance
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. - rose 4 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Neutral. FFIV averaged a decline of 1.3% in March but a gain of 2.1% in April the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FFIV - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)