Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday - March 13, 2018

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Tuesday - March 13, 2018

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  6

Quality of Breakouts -  Above Average.

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Small list of breakouts but some interesting plays for aggressive bulls.

Stock market  -   Bullish. Stock market takes a bit hit Tuesday, but all major averages are still bullish. Bulls be watchful on Wednesday.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Tuesday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH) - 20.35, up 0.77 - Breakpoint 19.86

Net Tops Estimates, TTD Targets 25.50 

  AMPH, based in Rancho Cucamonga, Ca., makes generic and injectable, inhalation and intranasal products. Annual revenues: $255 million. AMPH breaks out Tuesday from a five-month flat base. The move was triggered by better-than-expected earnings.

  So far today, AMPH is trading a heavy 1.1 million shares, six times its average daily volume of 186,000 shares.

  AMPH reported fourth quarter earnings of 10 cents a share. That topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 7 cents a share.

  AMPH's stock surged higher and broke out in the morning. (see 10-minute chart)

  However, the stock faded back below its breakpoint line. Then in the early afternoon the stock came alive again and drover higher to clear its breakpoint and close near its high for the day.

   Tape Action

  AMPH's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $19.72 in the morning to a peak of $20.35 in the morning.

  However, the price of the blocks faded back. Then the price rose again in the afternoon when the stock rallied.

  A key bullish block came near the close when a block of 58,362 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $20.35.

  That was up from the prior block at $20 on 5,920 shares.   

  Business

  AMPH  is a specialty pharmaceutical company. It sells generic and injectable, inhalation and intranasal products.

 The Company has two segments: finished pharmaceutical products and active pharmaceutical ingredients .

  The firm makes enoxaparin, cortrosyn, amphadase, naloxone, lidocaine jelly, as well as various other critical and non-critical care drugs.

  The API segment makes recombinant human insulin and porcine insulin.  

Charts

  AMPH's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 38% versus an 18% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $10.77 to $12.02 a share. They were sellers at $17 to $19 a share.

  AMPH's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2014 at $9.90. The stock eventually worked its way to an all-time high of $21.75 by late 2016.

  The stock then fell back to $12 in 2017. However, since then it has been trending higher. It is in good position to make a new all-time high.   

  AMPH's daily chart shows the stock forming a base after peaking close to $20 in December.

  Most recently AMPH drove higher Tuesday for its fifth up-day.

  The move carries the stock out of its base with expanding volume triggered by the good earnings.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.

   Earnings Outlook:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 79% surge in net to 68 cents a share from 38 cents a year ago.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 30. TTD sees that as attractive for growth investors.

  Going out to 2019, the Street predicts a 114% spurt in profits to $1.45 a share from the anticipated 68 cents this year.

  Net for the second quarter this year is expected to be up 27% to 14 cents a share from 11 cents the year before.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AMPH for a move to $25.50 within the next few months, or sooner.  A protective stop can be placed near $19.

Intermediate-Term Rating: Above Average.

Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.   

                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish. AMPH has scored some good gains off some breakouts.

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. AMPH rose 7 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Very Bullish.  AMPH rose an average of 6.3% in March and 1.1% in  April the past several years.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 4

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Stock market declines sharply Tuesday. However, breakdown stock list is small. Bears be conservative.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Myriad Genetics Inc. (MYGN) - 29.01, down 4.01

Under Investigation on Product, TTD Sees Decline to 24

  MYGN, based in Salt Lake City, develops and sells transformative molecular diagnostic tests. Annual revenues: $771 million. MYGN's stock falls sharply Tuesday. The drop was due to concern about an investigation into claims made under Medicare.

  So far today, MYGN is trading a heavy 2.5 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 566,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted MYGN as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.

  The stock fell sharply in the morning and undercut key technical support.

  MYGN touched an intraday low in the morning at $28.51.

  The stock then rallied to get back to $30 in the morning, but faded again and trended around $29 into the close.

   MYGN said it had received a subpoena from  the Department of Health and Human Services in connection with an investigation into possible false or improper claims submitted for payment under Medicare and Medicaid.

 The company was requested to produce documents related to the company's billing to government-funded health-care programs for its hereditary cancer testing from Jan. 1, 2014, through the date of the subpoena.

 MYGN said it is cooperating with the request. In 2017, 74% of the company's total revenue was from products to assess a patient's risk for hereditary cancers.

  Tape Action

  MTGN's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $33.02 in the prior session to as low as $28.93.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 12,440 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $30.84.

  That was down from the prior block late on Monday at $33.02 on 20,161 shares.

  Business

  Myriad Genetics, Inc. is a molecular diagnostic company. The company develops  transformative molecular diagnostic tests.  

  They are used to assess risk for developing disease later in life.  Its molecular diagnostic tests include myRisk Hereditary Cancer, BRACAnalysis CDx and COLARIS. 

 Earnings:

  This fiscal year ending in June analysts have been forecasting a 9% increase in net to $1.14 a share from  the $1.05 a share the year before.

  Net for the upcoming third quarter ending in March is expected to be flat at 27 cents a share.

Charts:   

  MYGN's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume from a head and shoulder topping pattern.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bearish.

  MYGN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 50% versus an 18% gain for the stock market. The stock had been performing very well but has backed off sharply the past month.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MYGN for a decline to $24 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $32.

Suitability: Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish.  MYGN rose just 3 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bearish.   MYGN declined an average of 1.3% in March but rose and average of 2.2% in April the past several years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2018

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)