By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small list of breakouts as stock market continues to back off. Bulls remain patient and conservative. Stock market needs to make a bottom after the recent selloff.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MFRM - AVERAGE
MFRM, based in Houston, Tex., is a retailer of mattresses. Annual revenues: $1.2 billion. MFRM's stock rises sharply Friday to breakout from an 11-week, cup -and-handle base. The move was triggered by the company upping its earnings forecast for the year. So far today, MFRM is trading a heavy 889,070 shares, four times its average daily volume of 221,000 shares.
TTD highlighted MFRM as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
MFRM's 10-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in the morning. The stock then trended mostly sideways during the day.
It did dip below its breakpoint line in the morning, but then lifted and held over the breakpoint line through the afternoon.
MFRM reported earnings for the fourth quarter increased in to 25 cents a share from 22 cents a year ago. The reported topped the consensus estimate by one cent a share.
The company also gave an up beat forecast for 2014.
MFRM's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $43.12 on Thursday to as high as $46.99 on Friday.
A key bullish block came in the morning when 6,425 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $46.26. That was up from the prior block at $43.25.
MFRM operates as a mattress retailer in the United States.
The firm offers both traditional and specialty mattresses, bedding accessories and related products.
MFRM also offers bed frames, pillows, tempurpedic pillows, headboards and footboards, mattress protectors, pillow top, and memory foam mattresses.
MFRM' 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 58% versus an 18% gain for the S&P 500 index.
The chart also shows MFRM with a strong move higher after its prior earnings report.
MFRM's long-term chart shows the stock coming public back in late 2011 and trading around 22. The stock soared to a peak of 48 in 2012.
However, it fell back sharply the rest of the year retracing to 22. Since then the stock has worked higher to get close to its prior peak.
MFRM's daily chart shows the stock forming a base by making a peak near 46 in January and then again in early March.
The breakout Friday was preceded by a good move higher in the prior session on good volume.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) broke out to the upside before the price of the stock. It was a good lead indicator showing good buying in the base.
Analysts are forecasting 14% increase in MFRM's earnings for the fiscal year ending in January of 2015.
They look for net of $1.90 a share, up from $1.66 in fiscal 2014.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 24. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to fiscal 2016 profits are expected to climb 19% to $2.25 a share.
Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending in April should be flat at 38 cents a share, according to analysts.
For the fiscal second quarter ending in July, they look for a 15% gain in profits to 50 cents a share from 43 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MFRM for a move to 54 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 44.50.
TTD sees MFRM as just a trading play. We rate the stock as average as a long-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. A key fund buyer recently was the 4-star rated Wasatch Small Cap Growth Fund which purchased 405,738 shares. That gave a 1.2% stake in MFRM. The largest fund holder is Baron Small Cap Retail Fund, 4-star rated, with a 4.4% stake.
MFRM has 33.9 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insides were recent light sellers of the stock at $42 to $44. Insiders were buyers using stock options at $9.50. Currently, 9 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Mattress Firm Holding Corp. - (MFRM)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GCO - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NEE - BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts but some interesting plays. Stock market in near-term pull back. TTD's short from Thursday was Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (DO) at 44.44. Today, the stock has edged down to 44.16 and is working okay for bears.
XOXO, based in New York, provides information for weddings and pregnancy. Annual revenues: $133 million. XOXO's stock falls sharply today after the company reported a loss for the fourth quarter. So far today, XOXO is trading a heavy 1.2 million shares, 16 times its average daily volume of 75,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
The stock was highlighted by TTD as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
The company reported a fourth quarter loss of 12 cents a share compared with a profit of 13 cents a year before. The loss was well below Street expectations.
XOXO's stock gapped lower in the morning hitting an intraday low of 8.82.
The stock then lifted to around 10 and then trended mostly sideways the rest of the session unable to rally.
XOXO's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $12.55 a few sessions ago to as low as $9.42 Friday.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 10,000 shares crossed the tape at $9.42. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $12.13.
XOXO provides information, products and advice related to weddings and pregnancy.
The company operates Internet websites, publishes magazines and books, and produces television and video content. XOXO was formerly known as The Knot, Inc.
This year, the Street was forecasting an 18% rise in profits. That estimate could come down.
XOXO's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from a peak near 15 in November to around 12. The stock tried to set up a bottom. However, today's breakdown is very bearish. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is extremely bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting XOXO for a decline to 7. A protective stop buy can be placed near 10.50.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DPM - AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)