Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Tuesday, March 14, 2017
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Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Tuesday, March 14, 2017 |
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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 13, 2017 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5
Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small and selective. Stock market in basing pattern after recent rally. Fed move will come this week.
(Put mouse on chart to Nasdaq)
Environment for bulls: Bearish
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KMG - AVERAGE |
KMG, based in Fort Worth, Tex., makes specialty chemicals. Annual revenues:$298 million. KMG's stock breaks out Tuesday from an 11-week flat base. The move was triggered by better-than-expected quarterly earnings. 
TTD highlighted KMG as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
So far today, KMG is trading a heavy 215,246 shares, six times its average daily volume of 33,000 shares. The stock is thinly traded.
KMG checked in with net for the fiscal second quarter ending in January of 57 cents a share
That topped the Street's consensus estimate of 42 cents a share. The stock responded bullishly to the news. 
KMG gapped higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line. (see 10-minute chart)
The stock surged to an intraday high of $44.77.
It then trended sideways the rest of the day holding most of its gain.
Tape Action
KMG's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $38.38 in the prior session to as high as $44.10.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 3,414 shares crossed the tape at $41.
That was up from the prior block trade at $38.39 on 1,844 shares in the prior session. 
Business
KMG makes specialty chemicals.
They include electronic chemicals, industrial wood treating chemicals, and industrial valve lubricants and sealants.
KMG operates through its subsidiaries, KMG Electronic Chemicals, Inc. (KMG EC), KMG-Bernuth, Inc. (KMG Bernuth) and KMG Val-Tex, LLC (Val-Tex).
The company's electronic chemicals business sells high purity and ultra-purity wet process chemicals primarily to the semiconductor industry.
KMG's other chemicals segment includes its industrial lubricants business and wood treating chemicals business.
Charts
KMG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 82% versus a 19% gain for the stock market.
KMG insiders were recently awarded stock options at $27 to $36 a share. Very few have been exercised.
KMG's long-term chart shows the stock breaking out from a base in 2013 at $22 a share.
The stock faded back but then came on again. It has now reached an all-time high.
KMG's stock came public back in 1997.
KMG's daily chart shows the stock advancing from $28 a share in November to a peak near $40 by January.
The stock pulled back and formed a tight flat base. The breakout Tuesday is powerful propelled by the strong earnings beat.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This fiscal year ending in July of 2017 the Street has been projecting a 13% increase in KMG's net to $1.82 a share from $1.61 a year before. However, that estimate could be raised.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 23. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to fiscal 2018 ending in July, analysts predict a modest 10% increase in net to $2.01 a share from the anticipated $1.82 this fiscal year.
Net for the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending in April should be up 15% to 47 cents a share from 41 cents the year before.
Profits for the fiscal fourth quarter ending in July should climb 24% to 47 cents a share from 38 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting KMG for a move to $51 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $38 giving it room. TTD rates KMG an average intermediate-term play.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of KMG's Prior Performance after a Breakout:
TTD's research shows that recently (see table) KMG has scored some excellent gains off its breakouts.
The stock has moved higher following 9 out of the past 12 earnings reports.
The seasonal chart shows March is a favorable month for KMG's sock.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
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Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
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31% |
11/11/2016 | 30.26 | 39.73 | 1/4/2017 |
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16% |
6/9/2016 | 24.78 | 28.89 | 8/11/2016 |
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1% |
9/15/2015 | 30.74 | 30.97 | 4/29/2015 |
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35% |
3/16/2015 |
22.83 |
30.97 |
4/29/2015 |
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7% |
11/6/2014 | 18.02 | 19.37 |
11/24/2014 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - COKE - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DIS - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -EDU - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CLVS - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks Tuesday. Bears be conservative. Stock market still holds overall up trend. TTD's short from Monday was Fitbit Inc. (FIT) at $5.64. Tuesday, the stock has declined to $5.54.
XOG, based in Denver, produces oil and gas in the Rocky Mountain area of the U.S. Annual revenues: $198 million. XOG's stock falls sharply Tuesday after the company reported a loss for the fourth quarter. TTD sees more on the downside. 
TTD highlighted XOG as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
So far today, XOG is trading 2 million shares, double its average daily volume of 920,000 shares.
XOG reported a loss for the fourth quarter of $1.54 a share. That compares with a much smaller loss in the year ago period.
The stock reacted very bearishly to the news.
XOG's stock fells sharply in the morning touching an intraday low of $14.76.
The stock then lifted to around $15 and trended sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
XOG's tape action shows the recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $16.36 in the prior session to as low as $55.13.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 5,574 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $15.46.
That was down sharply from the prior block at $16.36 on 10,488 shares.
Business
XOG develops oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids reserves in the Rocky Mountains, primarily in the Wattenberg Field of the Denver-Julesburg Basin of Colorado.
The company provides exploration and production processes in various steps, such as seismic, site preparation, drilling the well, completing the well, monitoring the well and reclaiming the site.
XOG uses an electric rig to manage its drilling operations. It uses vapor recovery units to capture emissions from storage facilities.
Earnings
This year analysts are forecasting a loss of 27 cents a share. That would compare with a loss in 2016.
For the first quarter, the see a loss of 19 cents a share. There was no comparison with a year ago.
Charts
XOG's stock has been in a downtrend since December. It fell from $24 to around $16 and tried to form a bottom.
However, today, it cuts below support with a big pick up in volume. The stock's CCI momentum indicator is very bearish.
XOG's six-month performance chart shows the stock down 25% versus a 10% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting XOG for a decline to $11.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $16.40.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - XOG - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
