By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4
Overall Quality of Breakouts - ABOVE AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small list of breakout stocks. Market falls sharply undercutting key technical support. Bulls be selective. Stock market acting weak. Monthly indicators near to turning bearish.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011 - Updated March 4)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PAY - ABOVE AVERAGE
PAY, based in San Jose, Ca., provides transaction automation systems for electronic payments. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. PAY's stock breaks out today from a five-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new high. That is very bullish. The stock's action was impressive given that the stock market has turned down sharply.
So far today, PAY is trading 5.7 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 2.2 million shares.
PAY's 10-minute chart shows the stock rallying strongly in the morning and punching across its breakpoint line.
The stock held its breakout nicely through the afternoon even though the stock market was down overall for the day.
Back on March 2, PAY made bullish comments about its earnings outlook. The stock gapped higher that day. The move today would appear to be a follow through on the move triggered by a good fundamental report.
The company designs transaction automation systems that enable secure electronic payments among consumers, merchants, and financial institutions.
PAY's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $46.25 to a peak of $51.61.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 44,472 shares crossed the tape at $49. That was up sharply from the prior block that went off at $47.10.
PAY's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 125% versus a 14% gain for the S&P 500 index.
PAY's long-term chart shows the stock soaring from 10.50 in 2005 to a peak of 50 in late 2007. The stock then got hammered down during the bear market falling to 4. Ouch!
PAY has since made a big comeback and regained all its lost ground. Very impressive! The push to a new high could well bring in more buying on Wednesday from the new high crowd.
PAY's daily chart shows the stock riding the 50-day moving average line higher from 23 to 50. The stock then set up a small flat base. Today, it breaks out with strong volume.
The base is small. However, the stock's up trend is impressive.
PAY's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend. That indicates there is strong underlying buying going on in the stock.
This fiscal year ending October 2011 analysts look for a 48% jump in net to $1.55 a share from $1.05 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 33.
Next fiscal year profits are expected to climb 23% to $1.92 a share.
Near-term, earnings for the upcoming fiscal second quarter ended April 30 is expected to climb 54% to 37 cents a share from 24 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 38 cents a share. TTD sees chances for a modest upside surprise. The past four quarters PAY topped the consensus estimate by 2 to 3 cents a share.
Going out to the fiscal third quarter, net is expected to be up 40% to 39 cents a share from 28 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PAY for a move to 64 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 47. TTD rates PAY a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Fidelity Growth Company Fund with a 9.8% stake. It has held its position steady. A key buyer recently was 3-star rated Vanguard Explorer Fund which purchased 965,475 shares. It is the second largest fund holder at 2.7%. PAY has 88.3 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options. They turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $50.03. Seven analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Verifone Systems Inc. - (PAY)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MG - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GLNG - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -HYC - BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest provides a list of potential breakout stocks from our screen of companies that will show some of the strongest earnings gains. One of the best ways to play these stocks is to study the list and then place a stop buy order to catch the stock on the breakout.
One can take either a full position on the breakout if they are aggressive, or scale-in looking to add to the stake later if they are conservative. TTD's premarket breakout watch list gives you a great opportunity "to be prepared for the next key breakout stock just before it happens." The list will be updated daily and the screen monthly.
Guide: Symbol=Ticker, Name=Corporate name, Entry is the buy price to enter on the breakout, Last=prior close, Change=change from last close to prior, Date=date of price of close etc, Gain in blue is price above breakpoint (entry), Gain in red is price below breakpoint (entry)., % Gain in blue is % over breakpoint (entry), Gain in red is % below breakpoint (entry)
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 20 - Max.
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Stock market moves lower. Bears be aggressive looking for damaged bear plays. TTD's short play from Monday was Cameco Corp. (CCJ) - 32.31, down 5.07. Today, the stock has declined to 31.95 and is working well for bears. The uranium stock is under pressure due to the Japan nuclear problem.
BWS, based in St. Louis, operates 1,100 stores selling shoes. Annual revenues: $2.5 billion. BWS' stock falls sharply today in heavy trading after the company reported disappointing earnings for the fourth quarter. So far today, BWS is trading 3 million shares, seven times its normal daily volume of 393,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
BWS reported fourth quarter net declined to 11 cents a share from 19 cents a year ago. The earnings were below Wall Street expectations of a smaller decline in net. The Street was looking for net of 15 cents a share. The lowest estimate was at 14 cents a share.
So, results were a disappointment and the stock responded in a bearish way.
BWS's stock fell sharply at the opening. It hit an intraday low of 10.50. The stock then lifted slightly and then trended sideways.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $14.41 to as low as $10.98. A key bearish trade came in the morning when 10,000 shares traded at $10.98, down from the prior block at $11.25.
BWS operates Famous Footwear stores and also 260 specialty retail stores in the U.S., Canada, and China.
Through its wholesale divisions, BWS sells athletic footwear brands such as Naturalizer, Dr. Scholl's, LifeStride, Sam Edelman, Franco Sarto, Via Spiga, Etienne Aigner, Vera Wang Lavender, Avia, ryka, And 1, and Buster Brown.
BWS's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower on big volume. The stock's technical action indicates the news came as a surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting BWS for a drop to 8.40. TTD sees BWS as a trading short. A protective stop buy can be placed near 12.40.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BWS - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)