|
|
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 4, 2013 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
|---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
|
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
|---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show(Posted 12:30 to 1 p.m. NYSE Time) Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - March 15Go to Shows for Latest Week: Monday
-
Tuesday
-
Wednesday
-
Thursday
-
Friday
|
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 16
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list large with some interesting quality plays. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market still holds its up trend.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
|
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AMCX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
AMCX, based in New York, produces movies and other entertainment. Annual revenues: $1.3 billion. AMCX' stock breaks out today from a nine-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. The stock came public in 2011 and traded around 40. 
TTD highlighted AMCX as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
The is trading a heavy 1.3 million shares, almost double its normal daily volume of 757,000 shares.
AMCX's 10-minute chart shows the stock breaking out early in the session. It continued higher into the afternoon hitting a peak of 61.65. 
Late in the day, the stock gave a little ground. The close near the higher for the day would be very bullish.
AMCX's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing during the day from $59.91 to as high as $61.36
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 25,000 shares crossed the tape at $69.14. That was up from the prior block at $59.91. 
AMCX is engaged in producing programming and movie content.
It owns and operates various cable televisions.
Its programming networks include AMC, IFC, Sundance Channel, WE tv, and IFC films.
The AMC is a television network which focuses on the original programming and movie-based entertainment.
IFC creates long and short-form content inspired by music, web, gaming, animation, news, and culture.
The Sundance Channel is the television destination for independent-minded viewers.
The WE tv is the women's network specially devoted to the relationships during life's defining moments.
The IFC films consist of multiple brands that bring specialty films to the largest possible audience.
AMCX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 40% versus a 16% gain for the stock market. The stock has been acting well off the recent earnings report.
AMCX's long-term chart shows the stock trading around 31 back in 2011. The stock advanced to 46 by early 2012 and then pulled back to 35. Since then, AMCX has been pushing higher and consolidating nicely along the way up. The push to a new high could draw in more buying on Monday. 
AMX's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 40 back in August to a peak near 60.
Today, the stock breaks out well from a flat base with expanding volume.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
Most importantly, the accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) broke out to the upside before the price of the stock.
That shows good accumulation in the base.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 56% jump in net to $3.21 a share from $2.06 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 19. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to 2014, profits are projected to rise 16% to $3.71 a share from the anticipated $3.21 this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should jump 33% to 80 cents a share from 60 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 98 cents a share. So some are looking for a possible very strong quarter. 
Looking out to the second quarter, profits are expected to climb 35% to 77 cents a share from 57 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AMCX for a move to 74 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 58.
TTD rates AMCX a very good intermediate-term play as long as earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund buyer recently was 5-star rated American Century US Mid Cap Value Fund which purchased 454,132 shares. It has a 0.63% stake.
The largest fund holder is 3-star rated ClearBridge Aggressive Growth Fund with a 2.4% stake. It has held its position steady.
AMCX has 72.4 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 82% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Extremely Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers at 8.95 a share. They were sellers around $49 to $50. Currently, 11 analysts follow the stock, 5 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating AMC Networks Inc. - (AMCX) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CAM - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CPN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DTV - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ENB - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few shorts today. Stock market still holds its up trend. Bears remain conservative.
SUPN, based in Rockville, Md., is a medical firm working on treatments for central nervous system diseases. Annual revenues: Nil. SUPN's stock falls sharply today on heavy volume. The company reported a loss for the fourth quarter that disappointed investors. TTD sees more on the downside. 
TTD highlighted SUPN as a short at our midsession video show Friday.
SUPN came in with a fourth quarter loss of 51 cents a share. The results prompted one brokerage firm Piper Jaffray to lower its price target for the stock.
SUPN's stock took a dive in the morning. It continued to trend lower into the afternoon. The price action indicates a flight from the stock.
SUPN's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $8 a few sessions ago to $6. A key bearish trade came when a block of 12,335 shares (duplicated) crossed at $6.81 in the morning.
SUPN is developing several product candidates in neurology and psychiatry to treat epilepsy and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.
The stock is obviously a speculative play based on product development.
This year, analysts are forecasting a loss of $1.46 a share.
SUPN's stock chart shows the stock with a gap drop back on November 30. It then trended sideways, until today's gap drop on big volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is extremely bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting SUPN for a decline to 4.30 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed 6.10.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SUPN - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
