Ticker Tape Digest

Professional Report”

Friday - March 15,  2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Friday - March 15, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  8

Quality of Breakouts -  Below Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -   Bull side a large list of breakouts, but very selective.

Stock market  -  Market averages are bullish in all time sectors.

Comment -  TTD suggests bulls can be venturesome with Nasdaq stocks as the indicator shows good buying in small caps.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Key earnings beats for Friday - None

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) - 338.41, up 25.90 - Breakpoint 320.40

Net To Rise 17% in Fiscal 2020 (Jan.), TTD Targets 390 

  ULTA, based in Bolingbrook, Ill. is a cosmetic firm selling fragrance, skin, hair care products and salon services. Annual revenues: $5.9 billion. ULTA's stock drives higher Friday and breaks out from a 5-month, cup-and-handle base.

  The move carries the stock to a new al-time high.

  TTD highlighted ULTA as a breakout at our midsesion video show on the Web Friday.

  So far today, ULTA is trading 3.9 million shares, five times its average daily volume of 768,216 shares.

  The stock got a boost from a broker upgrade to a price target of $375.

  ULTA came in with earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter of $3.61 a share. That topped the consensus on the Street at $3.56 a share. ULTA has topped the quarterly Street estimate the past nine out of 10 quarters.

  UlTA's stock moved higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint line.

  The stock reached an intraday high of $345.24 in the morning.

  It then trended mostly sideways the rest of the day.

    Tape Action

  ULTA's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $323.75 in the prior session to as high as $340.92.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 99,247 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $327.97.

  That was up from the prior block at #323.75 on 9,619 shares late on Thursday.

  Business

  ULTA sells some 20,000 products from over 500 beauty brands across all categories, including the company's own private label.

 The company also offers a full-service salon in every store featuring hair, skin and brow services.

ULTA has  970 retail stores across the U.S. It also sells products via the Web.

The company offers makeup products, such as foundation, face powder, concealer, color correcting, face primer, blush, bronzer, contouring, highlighter, setting spray, shampoos, conditioners, hair styling products, hair styling tools and perfumes.

  Charts

  ULTA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 62% versus a 3% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $25 to $97 a share.

   They were sellers at $249 to $286 a share.

  ULTA's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $33 back in 2011 to a peak at $314 by 2017.

  The stock then went into a long-term consolidation with a pull back to around $200 and then rallied. The stock's move to a new all-time high is bullish.   

  ULTA's daily chart shows the stock forming a cup-and-handle base.

  The breakout is strong coming with a gap move and expanding volume.

  Also the move to a new high signals no overhead resistance.

  ULTA's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.

 Earnings Outlook

  This fiscal year ending in January of 2020 analysts are forecasting a 17% increase in net to $12.74 a share from the $10.85 the year before.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 26.

  Looking out to fiscal 2021 ending in January, analysts predict a 17% jump in net to $14.85 from the anticipated $12.74 this fiscal year.

  Quarterly earnings growth will show solid gains.

  Net for the fiscal first quarter ending in April analysts predict a 19% jump in net to $3.12 a share from the $2.63 the year before.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at $3.21 a share. 13 analysts follow the stock.

  For the fiscal second quarter ending in July, the Street predicts a 17% gain in net to $2.89 a share from the $2.46 the year before.

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting ULTA for a move to $390 within the next few months, or sooner.

A protective stop can be placed near $320.

Intermediate-Term Rating:  Average.

Suitability:   Average Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish -  ULTA scored some massive gains off some of its past breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bearish. -  ULTA rose 5 times after the past 11 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Very Bullish. -  ULTA averaged a gain of 7.5% in March and a gain of 7.3% in April the past several years. 

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 10

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Large list of breakdown stocks with several stocks getting hit on earnings disappointments.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Golden Entertainment Inc.  (GDEN) - 13

Posts Wider Loss, TTD Sees Drop to 10

  GDEN, based in Las Vegas, distributes gaming machines in taverns and operates casinos. Annual revenues: $510 million. GDEN's stock falls sharply Friday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, GDEN is trading 2.3 million shares, 20 times its average daily volume of 117,000 shares.

 The company reported a fourth quarter loss of 90 cents a share compared with a loss of 53 cents the year before.

  The Street was looking for a profit of one cent a share.

  GDEN's stock took a dive in the morning and just cut below key technical support.

  The stock then lifted to around $14 and trended sideways.

  The in the final hour the stock fell again below its breakpoint line.

  Tape Action

  GDEN's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $16.99 in the prior session to as low as $13.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 41,474 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $16.06.

  That was down from the prior block at $16.99 on 12,400 shares.

  Business

  GDEN installes and distributes gaming and amusement devices in high-traffic, non-casino locations such as grocery stores, convenience stores, restaurants, bars, taverns, saloons and liquor stores in Nevada and Montana.

  Its casinos consist of the Rocky Gap Casino Resort in Flintstone, Maryland and three casinos in Pahrump, Nevada: Pahrump Nugget Hotel Casino, Gold Town Casino and Lakeside Casino & RV Park.  

 Earnings:

  This year, analysts have been forecasting a profit of $1.05 a share compared with 16 cents a year ago.

  However, that projection should come down after the poor first quarter.  

Charts:  

  GDEN's daily chart shows the stock falling sharply with big volume. The stock has been under distribution the past several weeks.

  GDEN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 52% versus a 3% gain for the stock market.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GDEN for a decline to $10 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $14.00.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish.  -  GDEN rose one time after the past 5 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity  - Neutral.  GDEN averaged a decline of 5.5% in March but a gain of 8.8% in April the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331

   Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.

  TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.  

 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)