By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small list of breakout stocks. Market falls sharply extending decline. Bulls be selective. Stock market acting weak. Monthly indicators close to turning bearish.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011 - Updated March 4)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FCFS - ABOVE AVERAGE
FCFS, based in Arlington, Tex., is the nation's third largest publicly traded pawnshop operator. Annual revenues: $431 million. FCFS breaks out and clears its eight-week flat base. The stock pushed through the key upside resistance on Tuesday after making an up beat earnings forecast. Today, it clears the base and acts well despite a sharp drop in the stock market.
TTD featured FCFS as a breakout at our midsession video show on Wednesday
So far today, FCFS is trading 294,356 shares, almost double its normal daily volume of 158,000 shares.
TTD did feature EZcorp. (EZPW) another pawn shop stock as a potential breakout earlier this week. So, it would appear pawn shop stocks are acting well.
FCFS's 10-minute chart shows the stock clearing its base on Tuesday. It held its breakout nicely against a wave of selling in the overall stock market Wednesday.
FCFS's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks advancing from $32.75 to a peak of $35.41 late on Tuesday.
A key bullish trade came late on Tuesday when 2,450 shares crossed the tape at $35.21. That was up from the prior block trade at $33.70.
FCFS reported on Tuesday earnings for the fourth quarter climbed to 59 cents a share, a 42% gain over a year ago. The 59 cents topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 54 cents a share.
The company said it benefited from strong loan demand due to the rise in unemployment. It also said margins improved.
FCFS's pawn stores engage in both consumer finance and retail sales activities. It provides consumer loans, lending money against pledged tangible personal property such as jewelry, electronic equipment, sporting goods and musical equipment.
The pawn stores also function as retailers of previously-owned merchandise acquired in forfeited pawn transactions and over-the-counter purchases from customers.
FCFS's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 40% versus an 18% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock's long-term chart shows the issue hitting a new all-time high. That is bullish. FCFS has soared from a bear market low of 7 in early 2008 to a peak of 35, an eightfold move.
FCFS's daily chart shows the stock pushing higher from 24 to 34. The stock then put down a well-formed flat base with two small shakeouts to the downside.
The stock broke out on Tuesday with expanding volume. and today follows through to the upside. Nice action!
FCFS's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) broke out just before the stock's price did. The AD Line is acting very bullish and is presently a lead indicator.
This year, analysts forecast 26% jump in FCFS's earnings to $2.18 a share from $1.75 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 16. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Looking out to 2012, profits are projected to increase 13% to $2.47 a share.
Net for the upcoming first quarter will be strong. The Street expects a 33% gain in net to 48 cents a share from 36 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 49 cents. TTD sees chances for an upside surprise. FCFS has topped the consensus estimate by one to five cents a share the past four quarters.
Strategy Opinion: FCFS is a solid breakout play supported by good earnings. TTD is targeting FCFS for a move to 43 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 33. TTD rates FCFS an above average intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated Fidelity Latin America Fund with a 1.9% stake. It was a recent seller of 97,482 shares. A key buyer recently was 3-star rated Virtus Quality Small Cap Fund which picked up 140,800 shares. It has a 1.3% stake. FCFS has 31.4 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options, but they turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $34.26. Eight analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
First Cash Financial Services Inc. - (FCFS)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GBX - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RAH - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 8.
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today even as stock market falls sharply. Bears have good market momentum to the downside. Bears be aggressive. TTD's short from Tuesday was Brown Shoe Co. (BWS) - 11.25, down 3.08. Today BWS has declined to 10.93 and is working well for bears.
OSG, based New York, provides international shipping services. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. OSG's stock falls sharply today with expanding volume. The move sends the stock under near-term technical support. TTD sees more on the downside as OSG is poised to show a large loss this year. So far today, OSG is trading 1 million shares. Its average daily volume is 716,000 shares.
OSG's stock went into a decline around midmorning. It touched a low of 29.92 early in the afternoon. It then lifted slightly later in the day to trim its loss.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $33.14 to 30.25.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when 24,900 shares crossed the tape at $30.45. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $31.32. The tape action indicated aggressive institutional selling pressure.
OSG operates a fleet of oceangoing bulk cargo vessels -- principally tankers.
The company ranks among the world's largest owners of tankers. OSG charters its ships to commercial shippers and U.S. and foreign governmental agencies for the carriage of bulk commodities, primarily crude oil, petroleum products, grain, coal and iron ore.
This year, analysts forecast OSG will show a loss of $3.17 a share compared with a loss of $3.34 a year ago. For the upcoming first quarter, the Street expects a loss of $1.45 a share compared with a loss of 9 cents a year ago.
OSG's daily chart shows the breakdown below support. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has been in a down trend for months indicating clear heavy selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting OSG for a decline to 25 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 32. TTD sees potential for a big breakdown if results disappoint.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OSG - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)