Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday, March 17
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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday, March 17 |
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Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, March 15 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday March 15 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list expands sharply today. Stock market looks a bit tired, but breakout stocks still keep coming. The indication would be that money is moving into stocks. Bulls be selective now and watchful of all long positions.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MEE - AVERAGE |
MEE, based in Richmond, Va., is a coal producer in the United States. Annual revenues: $2.7 billion. MEE's stock breaks out from a 10-week, cup-and-handle base today and hits a new 52-week high. Coal stocks are strong today. MEE said today it will acquire Cumberland Resources Corp. for $960 million. The Street took new bullishly. So far today, MEE is trading a heavy 10.4 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 4.5 million shares. 
TTD highlighted MEE as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web today.
MEE's 10 minute chart shows the stock breaking out in the morning on strong volume. After the breakout, the stock edged higher as volume slowed.
Coal stocks were strong with Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) breaking out too. It was up 1.30 to 52,73.
TTD's clip of MEE's tape action shows the big blocks.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $50 to $53.60. That shows consistent institutional buying. A key trade was a big block of 38,800 shares that crossed at $52.60. That was up from the prior block trade at $50.81. The tape action would indicate that the Street liked the purchase.
MEE sells bituminous coal of various steam and metallurgical grades, primarily of low sulfur content, through 23 processing and shipping centers,
The Company operated 56 mines, including 42 underground mines (two of which employ both room and pillar and longwall mining) and 14 surface mines in West Virginia, Kentucky and Virginia. The Company produces coal using four mining methods: underground room and pillar, underground longwall, surface and highwall mining.
MEE's 12-month performance shows a sensational 400% surge, easily outperforming the S&P 500 index, which was up 50%.
MEE's long-term chart shows the stock knifing higher in 2008 peaking at 95. It then fell back during the bear market. However, the past 14 months the stock has been working higher nicely. 
MEE's daily chart shows a nice rally from 25 to 50. The stock then formed a cup-and-handle base. The structure of the base was very good. The breakout today is ideal coming with expanding volume and a widening of the price spread.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bullish for the past seven weeks.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a solid up trend and today hits a new peak. That is good confirmation of solid behind MEE's advance.
This year, analysts forecast a 125% surge in MEE's net to $2.75 a share from $1.22 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 19. TTD sees that as reasonable even though it is a coal company.
Going out to 2011, the Street projects a 76% jump in net to $4.83 a share. Based on a p/e of 19, that gives the stock a valuation of $91.
Analysts see MEE's acquisition as very beneficial to the company's dominance of the Appalachian coal production business.
MEE's net for the upcoming first quarter should decline 18% to 42 cents a share from 51 cents a share a year ago. However, the highest estimate on the Street is at 72 cents a share. So, some see chances for a very good quarter.
The big turn up in profits will come in the second quarter. That is when analysts forecast a 173% surge in net to 65 cents a share from 24 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: MEE's breakout today is ideal and should be supported by a big up turn in profits. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 65 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 49, which is tight. TTD rates MEE a very good intermediate-term play because of its strong profit outlook.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated Hartford Capital Appreciation Fund with a 2.9% stake. It has held its position steady. The larges buyer recently was 5-star rated Van Eck Global Hard Asset Fund which purchased 659,000 shares. MEE has 86.5 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been buyers using stock options. They turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $50.25. Currently 19 analysts follow the stock, 10 have a buy, down from 11 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Massey Energy Corp. - (MEE) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EDU - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SLH - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ANR - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -ATU - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today. Very slim pickings for bears as stock market continues to rally. Bears be conservative.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
UVE, based in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., is engaged in insurance underwriting, distribution and claims. UIH’s primary product is homeowners insurance. Annual revenues: $202 million. UVE's stock falls sharply today after the company reported a fourth quarter loss. Trading so far is running at a heavy 1.9 million shares, 13 times its normal daily volume of 143,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
UVE reported a fourth quarter loss of 7 cents a share compared with a profit of 18 cents a share a year ago. The results were a disappointment and the stock responded in a bearish way.
UVE's stock gapped lower at the opening. It staged a nice bounce to cut its loss. Then it trended sideways the rest of the session.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see two key trades.
The first was a big block of 13,534 shares (duplicated) that wen off at $5.73. That was done from the prior block trade at $5.81.
The second was a big block trade of 10,700 shares at $4.83. That was down sharply from the prior block traded that went off at $5.60. The tape action showed aggressive institutional selling.
UVE ’s subsidiaries include Universal Property & Casualty Insurance Company; Universal Risk Advisors, Inc. and Universal Adjusting Corporation, which performs claims adjustment.
UVE's daily chart shows the big gap drop today and the widening of the spread (range from high to low). The wide spread indicates ease of price movement to the downside.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting UVE for a move down to $3.80 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed at 5.90.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
