Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Wednesday. March 19, 2014 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 17, 2013 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small and very selective. Bulls be patient. Stock market still has upside momentum near term.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FNSR - AVERAGE |
FNSR, based in Sunnyvale, Ca., makes fiber optic systems used by telecom firms. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. FNSR's stock breaks out today from a five-month flat base. So far today, FNSR is trading a heavy 5.5 million shares. Its average daily volume is 3 million shares. FNSR is part of the strong acting electronics and semiconductor sector.
TTD highlighted FNSR as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
FNSR's stock pushed higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line (see 10-minute chart).
The stock then worked higher through the session reaching an intraday peak of 26.19.
It then trended sideways into the final bell holding its ground well.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $24.93 in the prior session to as high as $26 on Wednesday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 100,000 shares crossed the tape at $25.13.
That was up from the prior block at $24.93 on 31,118 shares.
The stock ended the day with a bullish block at $25.91 on 42,883 shares. That was up from the prior block at $25.86.
FNSR produces fiber optic subsystems and network test and monitoring systems which enable high-speed data communications over local area networks, or LANs, storage area networks, or SANs, and metropolitan access networks, or MANs.
The company is focused on the application of digital fiber optics to provide a line of high-performance, reliable, value-added optical subsystems for data networking and storage equipment manufacturers.
FNSR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 82% compared with a 20% gain for the S&P500 index.
FNSR's long-term chart shows the stock trending sideways the past three years.
The stock like several electronics component issues has been relatively dormant during the current bull market.
However, the sector has been doing better over the past several months.
FNSR's daily chart shows the stock pushing through upside resistance near 25. The move was impressive since the stock market declined broadly for the day.
FNSR breakout comes on modest volume.
So, it will be important for the stock to show a follow up move.
FNSR's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is modestly bullish. It compliments the price action of the stock.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) lags. It should be back to a peak like the price of the stock.
However, FNSR is poised to show some strong earnings.
Analysts expect net for the fiscal year ending in April to surge 309% to $1.23 a share from 30 cents a share a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 20. TTD sees that as reasonable.
FNSR's earnings for the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter ending in April should leap 150% to 30 cents a share from 12 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 39 cents a share. So, some see potential for a big quarter.
FNSR has been a bit erratic when meeting Street estimates. However, it at times can top the Street consensus by a large amount.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2015 ending in April, analysts look for a 13% increase in net to $1.39 a share from the anticipated $1.23 a share for fiscal 2014.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting FNSR for a move to 31 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 23.60.
TTD rates FNSR an average intermediate-term play. The earnings will need to be monitored closely.
Sponsorship: Average. A key fund holder is the 5-star rated T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund with a 2% stake. However, it was a recent seller of 801,000 shares.
A key fund buyer was the 3-star rated Vanguard Mid Cap Growth Fund which took a new position by purchasing 672,370 shares.
FNSR has 96.8 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 99% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Extremely Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers from 68 cents a share - yes 68 cents - to $7.68. They were sellers recently from $22 to $25 a share.
Currently, 11 analysts follow the stock, 10 have a buy, up from 9 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Finisar Corp. - (FNSR) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 8 | 0 | 6 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HPQ - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FSLR - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - Z - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts today even though stock market falls back. Bears remain conservative. TTD's short from Tuesday was GNC Holdings (GNC) at 44.40. Today, the stock has declined to 44.23 and is working well for bears.
BRSS, based in Schaumburg, Il., makes copper and brass products. Annual revenues: $1.7 billion. BRSS's stock falls on heavy volume today and cuts below key technical support. The decline was triggered by disappointing fourth quarter earnings. So far today, BRSS is trading 597,759 shares, four times its average daily volume of 148,000 shares.
TTD highlighted BRSS as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
BRSS reported fourth quarter earnings declined to 29 cents a share from 36 cents a year ago.
The company disappointed with earnings in the prior quarter.
BRSS's stock fell sharply in the morning sliding to an intraday low of 15.04. The stock then trended sideways unable to produce a sustained rally.
BRSS's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $16.04 to $15.34 in the morning.
A key bearish block came in the morning when a block of 11,300 shares crossed the tape at $15.40. That was down sharply from the prior block at $16.04 on 16,400 shares.
BRSS is a converter, fabricator, distributor and processor of copper and brass products primarily in North America.
The company's product include sheet, strip, foil, rod, tube and fabricated metal component that it sells under the Olin Brass, Chase Brass and A.J. Oster brand names.
It also engages in metal melting and casting, rolling, drawing, extruding and stamping to fabricate finished and semi-finished alloy products.
The company serves building and housing, munitions, automotive, transportation, coinage, electronics/electrical components, industrial machinery and equipment and general consumer end markets.
This year, analysts are forecasting an 8% increase net to $2.29 a share from $2.12 in the prior year. However, net for the first quarter should fall 6%.
BRSS's daily chart shows the stock cutting below key technical support with expanding volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower showing clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting BRSS for a decline to 11.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 16.80.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BRSS - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)