Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 18, 2019 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Tuesday - March 19, 2019
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Small list of breakouts. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - Market averages are bullish in all time sectors.
Comment - TTD sees the stock market still holding in its overall up trend after the selloff from August to December of last year.
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Tuesday - METC, BITA and MIK.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GLUU - ABOVE AVERAGE |
GLUU, based in San Francisco, makes and sells mobile games. Annual revenues: $367 million. GLUU's stock moves sharply higher Tuesday and breaks out from an 11-week flat base.
The move carries the stock to an 11-year high.
So far today, GLUU is trading 3.3 million shares. Its average daily volume is 2 million shares.
TTD sees more on the upside.
GLUU's stock moved higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line.
The stock reached an intraday high of $10.58 in the early afternoon.
It gave a little ground later in the afternoon.
Tape Action
GLUU's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $9.89 in the prior session to as high as $10.39 on Tuesday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 35,041 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $9.97 a share.
That was up from the prior block at $9.89 a share on 49,927 shares the prior session.
Business
The company develops mobile games designed to appeal to users of smartphones and tablet devices.
Its portfolio of games include Contract Killer, Cooking Dash, Covet Fashion, Deer Hunter, Design Home, QuizUp, Racing Rivals and Tap Sports Baseball.
GLUU works directly with other application developers to include advertising for their applications in its games.
GLUU gets funds based on either the number of impressions in its games or users downloads.
Charts
GLUU's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 170% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $2.40 a share. They were sellers at $7 to $9 a share.
GLUU's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $2 a share back in 2013 to a peak at $7.60 by 2014.
However, the stock fell back to $1.73 by 2016. The stock bottomed and turned up in 2017 and has since reached a peak of $10.58 set on Tuesday.
GLUU's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $6 in October to a peak near $10 by February.
The stock put down a flat base and Tuesday it breaks out with a widening of the daily spread.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 230% gain in net to 33 cents a share from 10 cents the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 31. TTD sees that as favorable given the earnings growth rate.
Looking out to 2020, the Street is predicting a 40% jump in net to 46 cents a share from the anticipated 33 cents expected for this year.
Profits for the first quarter are expected to climb 67% to 5 cents a share from the 3 cents the year before.
Currently 6 analysts follow the stock.
Net for the second quarter is projected at 7 cents a share. There was no comparison with a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GLUU for a move to $13.50 within the next few months.
A protective stop can be placed near $9.70.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Above Average.
Suitability: Aggressive Investors.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - GLUU scored some massive gains off some of its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish - GLUU rose 5 times after the past 8 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Extremely Bullish. - GLUU averaged a gain of 2.1% in March and a gain of 11.9% in April the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
21% |
1/7/2019 |
8.44 |
10.20 |
2/4/2019 |
11% |
8/21/2018 |
6.94 |
7.70 |
8/31/2018 |
63% |
4/16/2018 |
4.09 |
6.67 |
6/21/2018 |
58% |
8/2/2017 |
2.92 |
4.63 |
10/17/2017 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating GLU Mobile Inc. (GLUU) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VEEV - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PCMI - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GOL - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ATRI - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 9
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Large list of shorts with some good plays for aggressive bears.
CAL, based in St. Louis, sells footwear. Annual revenues: $2.8 billion. CAL's stock falls sharply Tuesday on expanding volume. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, CAL is trading 793,082 shares, almost double its average daily volume of 478,000 shares.
CAL's stock fell in the morning and undercut key technical support.
The stock had a slightly lift in the morning after its breakdown. Then the stock resumed its downtrend.
CAL closed on its low for the session. That is very bearish.
Tape Action
CAL's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $27.14 in the prior session to as low as $25.83.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 35,700 shares crossed the tape at $26.62.
That was down from the prior block at $27.10 on 3,276 shares.
Business
CAL's footwear brands are sold in some 1,200 retail stores.
The company also sells its products in department and specialty stores and via e-commerce.
Some of the footwear products include Vionic, Vince, Franco Sarto, Dr. Scholl's Shoes, LifeStride, Via Spiga, Diane von Furstenberg, Blowfish Malibu, Bzees, Carlos by Carlos Santana, Circus by Sam Edelman, Fergie and Ryka.
Earnings:
Analysts are forecasting a 2% decline in CAL's earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter ending in January. They see net at 47 cents a share, down from 48 cents the year before.
Overall, for the fiscal year ending in January is expected to be up 6% to $2.30 a share from the $2.16 the year before.
Looking out to fiscal 2020 ending in January, the Street predicts an 11% increase in net to $2.55 a share from the anticipated $2.30 for fiscal 2019.
Charts:
CAL's daily chart shows the stock cutting below key support with expanding volume. CAL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 20% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CAL for a decline to $21 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be set at $27.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. - CAL rose 4 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bearish. - CAL averaged a gain of 0.3% in March but a decline of 3.5% in April the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CAL - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
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end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)