Ticker Tape Digest

Thursday - March 21  2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Thursday - March 21, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  8

Quality of Breakouts -  Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -   Bulls can be venturesome.

Stock market  -  Market averages are bullish in all time sectors.

Comment -  Stock market  holds in its up trend. The end of the first quarter is coming. So, one needs to be alert to any earnings projections.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Thursday -  None.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) - 190.05, up 8.08 - Breakpoint 185.53

Net To Rise 20% This Year, TTD Targets 225

  PAYC, based in Oklahoma City, Okla., provides cloud-based human capital management software solutions. Annual revenues: $566 million. PAYC's stock breaks out Thursday from a six-week flat base.

  The move carries PAYC to a new all-time high. That is very bullish.

  TTD sees more on the upside for PAYC

  So far today, PAYC is trading 906,550 shares. Its average daily volume is 519,646 shares.

  TTD highlighted PAYC as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.

  PAYC's moved higher in the morning and cut across its breakpoint line.

  The stock continued higher into the afternoon reaching an intraday high of $190.63.

  The close near the high is very bullish.

   Tape Action

  PAYC's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $181.97 in the prior session to as high as $190.33.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 9,800 shares crossed the tape at $184.95.

  That was up from the prior block late on Wednesday at $181.97 on 16,000 shares.

  Near the close a block of 35,709 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $190.05.

  That was down from the prior trade at $109.06 on 100 shares.

 Business

  PAYC provides data analytics that businesses need to manage employment.

  The company's applications streamline client processes and provide clients and their employees with the ability to directly access and manage administrative processes.

 They include identify, time and labor, payroll deductions and benefits and post-termination health benefits.

  The Company's solution allows clients to analyze employee information to make business decisions. 

  Charts

   PAYC's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 65% versus a 5% gain for the stock market.

   Insiders were recent sellers at $127 to $180 the past few months.

   PAYC's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2014 at $15. The stock climbed to 50 by 2016. It based and then broke out and has since surged to a new all-time of $190.63 Thursday.   

  PAYC's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $120 earlier this year to a peak at $185 by February.

  The stock puts down a tight flat base. The breakout comes with a good pick up in volume.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.

  Earnings Outlook

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 20% increase in net to $3.21 a share from the $2.67 the year before.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 59. That is high.

  Looking out to 2020, the Street is predicting a 25% gain in net to $4.01 a share from the anticipated $3.21 this year.

  Net for the first quarter is expected to rise 18% to $1.12 a share from the 95 cents a share the year before.

  Then in the second quarter analysts predict a 17% gain in net to 69 cents a share from the 59 cents the prior year.

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting PAYC for a move to $225 within the next few months or sooner.

A protective stop can be placed near $183.

Intermediate-Term Rating:  Average.

Suitability:   Average Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - PAYC scored some big gains off some of its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral  - PAYC rose 4 times after the past 8 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Very Bullish. -  PAYC averaged a gain of  6.4% in March and a gain of 4.3% in April the past several years. 

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Small list of shorts, but some interesting plays for aggressive bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Raven Industries Inc. (RAVN) - 35.16

Net Disappoints, TTD Sees Decline to 29

  RAVN, based in Sioux Falls, S.D., makes a variety of agriculture products. Annual revenues: $377 million. RAVN's stock gaps lower Thursday and undercuts below key technical support.

  The decline was triggered by disappointing earnings.

  So far today, RAVN is trading 437,707 shares, four times its average daily volume of 91,000 shares.

  RAVN reported net for the fourth quarter of 11 cents a share. That was well below Street estimates of 34 cents a share.

  RAVN's stock gapped lower in the morning and undercut key technical support.

  The stock touched an intraday low of $33. The stock then worked higher the rest of the session to trim some of its loss.

   Tape Action

  RAVN's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $38.58 in the prior session to as low as $33.60 in the morning.

  Then later in the session the price of the blocks rose.

  Business

  RAVN makes a range of products for the industrial, agricultural, energy, construction and defense markets.

  The company  makes and services precision agriculture products and information management tools for growers.

 Its engineered films unit produces plastic films and sheeting for energy, agricultural, construction, geomembrane and industrial use.

 The firm also makes balloons, tethered aerostats and radar processing systems.

 Earnings:

  This fiscal year ending in January of 2020, analysts were forecasting a profit of $1.59 a share versus $1.14 the year before.

  However, that estimate will come down due to the earnings miss for the recent quarter. Only one analyst follows the stock.   

Charts:  

  RAVN's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from $50 last year down to $33 by December. The stock rallied to 41 by February, but is now rolling over.

  RAVN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 2% versus a 5% gain for the stock market.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting RAVN for a decline to $29. A protective stop buy can be placed near $37.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral.  RAVN rose 5 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bullish -  RAVN averaged a decline of 1.5% in March  but rose an average of  2.8% in April the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331

   Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)