By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list modest today with several auto parts stocks breaking out. Bulls be selective. Stock market continues to hold tough and not give ground. That is bullish showing that money is not fleeing stocks.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MNRO - ABOVE AVERAGE
MNRO, based in Rochester, N.Y., operates auto service stores. Annual revenues: $534 million. MNRO's stock breaks out today from deep within a three-month flat base. The move comes on volume of 660,885 shares, double its normal daily volume of 300,000 shares. The move carries the stock to a new high. That is bullish and could bring in more buying from the new-high crowd on Tuesday.
TTD highlighted MNRO as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Monday.
A look at MNRO's 10-minute chart shows the stock pushing through its breakpoint in the morning. It held at midday and the pushed higher in the afternoon.
That is good action, especially since MNRO has a beta of just 0.56 versus 1.00 for the stock market. That means the stock has been only half as volatile as the stock market. So, it tends to be a slow mover.
TTD also picked up another auto parts breakout, Genuine Auto Parts (GPC)
TTD's clip of the tape of the past few days shows some key big block trades. A block of 12.7 million shares crossed on Friday at $33.59. That was up from $33.40 for the prior block.
Today, a key block traded took place in the morning when 450,600 shares crossed at $33.84. That was off slightly from the prior block of $33.85.
MNRO operates a chain of 710 company operated stores and 14 dealer-operated stores providing automotive repair and tire services in the U.S.
The stores operate under the names Monro Muffler Brake & Service, Tread Quarters Discount Tire and Mr. Tire.
The company serviced about 3.5 million vehicles during the fiscal year ended March 28, 2009. In January, it acquired seven retail tire and automotive repair stores in Buffalo, New York, from the Broad Elm Group.
MNRO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 35% versus a 40% gain in the S&P 500 index. So, MNRO has underperformed recently. That reflects its low beta. So, the stock tends to move slowly. However, it has been a consistent advance over the years. Thus, it is a good long-term play.
MNRO's long-term chart shows the stock advancing from 7 back in 2003 to a peak of 36. That is an excellent performance.
MNRO's daily chart shows the stock setting up a flat base between 31 and 36. The stock did attempt a breakout in February, but it slipped back. This second breakout attempt comes with a big widening of the spread (range from high to low). That is bullish.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is now slightly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has turned up and is now bullish. That is good confirmation that the stock is getting good underlying buying support.
MNRO is poised to show a big gain for the fiscal fourth quarter ending March 31
Analysts are projecting a 51% jump in net to 23 cents a share from 15 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 23 cents. TTD sees good chances for a modest upside surprise. The past three quarters, MNRO topped the consensus estimate by 1 to 3 cents a share.
The company has been boosting profit estimates.
Net for the fiscal year ending March 31 should climb 30% to $1.55 a share from $1.20 a year ago. The stock sells with a price earnings ratio of 23, which is reasonable. Going out to fiscal 2011 ending in March, the Street looks for a 21% gain in net to $1.87 a share from the anticipated $1.55 a share for fiscal 2010.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MNRO for a move to 45. A protective stop can be placed near 33. The stock may be a slow mover. So, investors need to be patient. TTD rates MNRO a very good long-term play provided earnings growth remains favorable.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock with a big 5.9% stake. It has held its position steady. The largest buyer lately was Arisan Small Cap Investor Fund, 3-star rated, which purchased 77,800 shares. MNRO has just 19.8 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders were recent sellers around $35. Five analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Monro Muffler Brake Inc. - (MNRO)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GPC - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CYH - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - STST- AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -HMA - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdown plays today. Bears be conservative and selective.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
GDP, based in Houston, produces oil and gas from properties in East Texas and Northwest Louisiana. Annual revenues: $110 million. GDP's stock breaks below key support today setting off a TTD short play. Analysts expect the company to show a loss this year. So far today, GDP is trading 2 million shares, almost double its normal daily volume of 1.1 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
GDP's stock fell at the opening, trended lower in the morning and then lifted slightly in the afternoon.
TTD's clip of the tape shows some heavy distribution in the stock. A big block of 544,500 shares traded on Friday near the close and went off at $17.73, down from the prior block of $18.19. A second block traded today. It was 119,000 shares crossing at $16.72. That was within a sequence of a series of blocks.
The tape action shows heavy institutional selling pressure.
GDP has a stake in 466 active oil and gas wells located in 24 fields in six states.
It had estimated proved reserves of 415.3 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas and 0.9 million barrels (MMBbls) of oil and condensate.
This year, analysts forecast a loss of 97 cents a share compared with a loss of $1.37 a share a year ago. For the upcoming first quarter, they expect a loss of 25 cents a share compared with a profit of 5 cents a share a year ago.
GDP's daily chart shows the stock in a down trend the past few months. It tried to form a bottom near 18. However, today, it gaps lower. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bearish for several weeks. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is working lower aggressively.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GDP for a decline to 13.50 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 18.50.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)