By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.
These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short.These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positionsboth as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market corrections
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Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 11
Stocks Screened- 8,200
Bull side - Small list of breakouts today with overall quality below average Bulls remain aggressive.
Long-Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market Status (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
AER, based in the Netherlands, provides aircraft and engine leasing, trading and parts sales. Annual revenues: $493 million. AER, a recent IPO at 23 in November of last year, breaks out to a new high today from a well-formed, 11-week flat base. Trading so far today is running at 1 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 236,000 shares.
The stock is acting very strong on the breakout. As we move into the late afternoon of Friday's session, TTD has spotted a big block of 54,900 shares that came on a sequence set off by an up tick to $28.95 from the prior trade at $28.93.
AER also provides aircraft management services and performs aircraft and engine maintenance, repair and overhaul services and aircraft disassemblies.
The company has 300 aircraft and 57 engines It has offices in Ireland and the United States.
The company's fleet includes Airbus, Boeing, and McDonnell-Douglas jets. AER has about 100 customers in 50 countries, with half of its sales coming from the U.S. Customers include American Airlines, America West, and Varig.
Technically, AER's base and breakout are ideal. With new issues, it is often important to give them time to settle down. AER did just that. Now the breakout that TTD is picking up looks great.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator has pushed back into the bullish zone. The accumulation - distribution line is trending higher overall. Also, today's breakout comes with strong volume and a widening of the daily price spread.
AER posted net for the fourth quarter, excluding charges for share-based compensation, of 51 cents a share. For the full year 2006, net income was $1.98 a share.
The stock sells with a modest price-earnings ratio of 14 base on 2006 net from operations.
The company completed the purchase of 28 aircraft during the fourth quarter, bringing the total aircraft purchased in 2006 to 41
Also, the company said its contracted investment in new Airbus equipment provides a strong growth pipeline.
AER said its strong net income for 2006 was due in part, to its diversified sources of revenue which include leasing, service fees and sales of aircraft, engines and parts.
Strategy Opinion: AER is a good looking breakout play with no upside resistance. TTD is targeting the stock for a flight to 34 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 27. TTD rates AER a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is Excelsior Value and Restructuring Fund, 5-star rated, with a 2% stake. It was a recent buyer of 1.7 million shares. Also, 5-star rated Gartmore Small Cap Fund was a recent purchaser of 102,000 shares.
Cerberus Capital Management owns about 57% of AerCap.
Insider Activity: Not available. Four analysts follow the stock and all have a buy.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Aercap Holdings NV. (AER) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.
(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdowns today. Bears be conservative as the market continues to rally.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
JBL, based in St. Petersburg, Fla., makes printed circuit boards and electronic components. Annual revenues: $7.5 billion. JBL falls sharply today in heavy trading after several brokerage firms slashed their earnings forecast. So far today, JBL is down almost 3 points. Volume is running at 14.2 million shares, about seven times its normal daily volume of 2.5 million shares.
The stock got off to a bearish start. TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 180,500 shares crossing in the morning on a big down tick to $22.56 from $22.70.
The stock's fall was triggered by several brokerage firms cutting their earnings forecast. Bear Stearns cut its forecast of JBL's earnings for 2008 to $1.55 a share from $2 a year ago.
Cowen & Co. slashed its forecast for this year to $1.16 a share from $1.55 a share and Deutsche Bank lowered its projection to 90 cents from $1.48.
JBL's products are used in communications products, computers and computer peripherals, and automobiles. Services range from product design to component procurement, order fulfillment, and supply chain management.
JBL's customers include Hewlett-Packard and Nokia.
The technical breakdown in the stock points to good chances for more on the downside. The TTD momentum indicator is extremely bearish (see top of the chart). The accumulation - distribution line has turned down sharply and is now very bullish.
TTD sees more on the downside. We are calling for JBL to drop to 18 within the next few months, or sooner. The stock is a very good play for bears.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)