Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Tuesday - March 23
|
Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Tuesday - March 23 |
|
Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, March 22 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday March 22 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
|---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
|
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
|---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list remains good as market pushes higher. Metal stocks moving out today. Bulls be selective. Stock market continues to hold tough.
The action indicates money is not fleeing stocks.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
|
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OPLK - AVERAGE |
OPLK, based in Freemont, Ca., makes optical networking components and
subsystems. Annual revenues: $130 million. OPLK breaks out from a four-month, cup-and-handle base today with a big surge in volume. The stock was featured recently by TTD as one to accumulate. So far today, OPLK is trading 484,991 shares, triple its normal daily volume of 146,000 shares. 
OPLK's 10-minute chart shows the stock breaking out around midday. The stock continued higher after the breakout showing good intraday follow through action.
The stock is thinly traded. However, it has a beta of 1.62 which means its is much move volatile than the stock market which has a beta of 1.00.
TTD's clip of the tape for OPLK shows steady buying.. The price for the blocks rose steadily from $17.42 to $18.20.
OPLK makes solutions for all-optical dense and coarse wavelength division multiplexing. It also makes items for optical amplification, switching and routing, monitoring and conditioning, and line transmission applications.
The addressable markets include long-haul networks, metropolitan area networks, local area networks and fiber-to-the-home networks. The Company’s customers include telecommunications, data communications and cable television equipment firms.
OPLK's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 120% versus 40% for the stock market. So, the issue has been outperforming.
OPLK's long-term chart shows the stock trading between 5 and 20 for several years. The stock in a long-term perspective is moving across its trading range. It would appear a push to the 20 area is quite possible. If that happens it would be very bullish long-term.
OPLK's daily chart shows the stock rallying from 11 to a peak around 18 in
November. It then went into what appeared to be a flat base. However, that has
changed and now OPLK formed a cup-and-handle base. 
The breakout move today comes with a widening of the spread (range from high to low). That is bullish. Near-term the stock is a bit extended, but it is showing good strength.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bullish for several weeks.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a solid up trend. It broke out before the price of the stock. So, the AD line was a good lead indicator. It also shows there has been good underlying buying in the stock.
OPLK is poised to show a big earnings gain for the fiscal third quarter ending March 31.
The Street looks for net to leap 238% to 14 cents a share from 4 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 14 cents. TTD sees an excellent chance for a upside earnings surprise. The past four quarters OPLK topped the consensus estimate by 3 to 8 cents a share.
OPLK's net for the fiscal third quarter is expected to climb 56% to 14 cents a share from 9 cents a year ago.
Net for the year should surge 120% to 60 cents a share from 27 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 28. Looking out to fiscal 2011 ending June 30, the Street projects a 19% gain in net to 71 cents a share from 60 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting OPLK for a move to 23 - the same price as previously mentioned. A protective stop can be placed near 17. TTD rates OPLK a very good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Good. A key buyer recently was Vanguard Explorer Inv. Fund, 4-star rated, which purchased 58,718 shares. OPLK has 20.9 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Not much activity this year. Four analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Oplink Communications Inc. - (OPLK) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 11 | 0 | 3 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DE - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ATI - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ALGT - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -GIII - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today as stock market works higher. TTD's short play from Monday was Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (GDP) - 17.15, down 0.59. Today, the stock has declined to 16.97 and is working well for bears.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
SYNA, based in Santa Carla, Ca., makes custom-designed user interface solutions for a variety of mobile computing, communications, entertainment and other electronic devices. Annual revenues: $469 million. SYNA's stock fall sharply today after a Needham downgrading. So far today, SYNA is trading 2 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 614,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
SYN gapped lower in the morning and worked lower afterwards. It bottomed at 24.90 around 10:30 a.m. The stock then trended sideways unable to mount a rally.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $26.62 to $25.10. A key trade was a big block of 79,600 shares which traded at $25.34. That was down sharply from the prior block that went off at $25.75.
The tape showed heavy institutional selling pressure.
Needham downgraded the stock to hold from buy.
SYNA sells to the personal computer market, mobile phones, portable digital music and video players, and electronic devices.
Through its OneTouch offering, the company enables its customers to access the technologies to develop their own human interface.
Analysts forecast SYNA's net for the fiscal third quarter ending March 31 will decline 8% to 24 cents a share from 26 cents a year ago. Overall, for fiscal 2010, they look for profits to drop 26% to $1.27 a share from $1.73 a year ago.
.SYNA's daily chart shows the stock with a gap drop in July. The stock bottomed and tried to rally getting to 32. However, it then faded back and today breaks down. The expansion in volume today is very bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting SYNA for a decline to 21. TTD would treat the stock as a trading short. A protective stop can be placed near 26.20.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
