Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 19, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Friday - March 23, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - None.
Quality of Breakouts - None.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - No breakouts Friday as stock market falls sharply. Bulls be watchful of any positions held.
Stock market - Bearish in the daily and weekly for all three market indicators. Monthly indicators still holding bullish.
Bulls need to be patient and extremely watchful of any positions still held. Market still vulnerable to more on the downside.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
None
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DK - ABOVE AVERAGE |
DK, based in Brentwood, Ten., provides refining and marketing services for the energy industry. Annual revenues: $7.3 billion. DK's stock moves slightly higher Friday bucking the stock market's sharp decline.
The stock did not breakout from its base Friday.
However, it is good position to do that even though the stock market is now trending lower.
So far today, DK is trading 370,395 shares. Its average daily volume is 434,000 shares.
DK's stock surged higher in the morning reaching $40.
The stock then backed off and trended sideways meeting clear resistance at $40.
In the late afternoon, the stock faded back as the stock market took a dive.
Even though, DK was not able to breakout Friday. The stock still is in position to clear upside resistance.
Tape Action
DK's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $38.69 in the morning to as high as $40.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 144,100 shares crossed the tape at $39.42.
That was up sharply from the prior block at $39 on 3,786 shares.
Then near the close a block of 79,213 shares (duplicated) crossed at $38.88.
That came on a down tick from $38.89 on 175 share trade.
Business
DK provides refining, logistics, retail and wholesale marketing, renewables and asphalt services.
The company has refineries in Tyler and Big Spring, Texas, El Dorado, Arkansas and Krotz Springs, Louisiana.
They have a combined crude throughput capacity of 302,000 barrels per day.
The firm's logistics segment gathers, transports and stores crude oil, as well as markets, distributes transports and stores refined production.
Charts
DK's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 56% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $26 to $30 a share.
They were sellers at $35 to $37 a share.
DK's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $10 back in 2011 to a peak of $41.47 by 2013.
The stock pulled back to $20 later that year, but came on again only to top out around $41 again.
DK then fell back to $11.41 by 2016. Since then the stock has staged another big rally and is now banging against historical upside resistance near $40.
DK's daily chart shows the stock rallying strongly from $26 back in late October to a peak near $39 by January.
The stock has since pulled back and rallied forming a cup-and-handle base.
The CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
Analysts are forecasting DK's earnings this year will surge 76% to $2.22 a share from the $1.26 the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 17. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Looking out to 2019, the Street predicts a 29% rise in net to $2.87 a share from the anticipated $2.22 for this year.
Net for the first quarter is expected to be down 56% to 9 cents a share from the 16 cents the year before.
However, there are some analysts looking for first quarter net to be as high as 23 cents a share.
Second quarter net will be very strong.
The Street is predicting net at 83 cents a share compared with a loss of 40 cents a share the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD suggests accumulation of a partial stake in DK with further buying to be done on a breakout over $39.25. TTD is targeting DK for a move to $46 after a breakout.
A protective stop can be placed near $37.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Extremely Bullish DK has tended to score big gains off its recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. DK rose 6 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Very Bullish. DK rose an average of 5.1% in March and 1.7% in April the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
43% |
11/01/2017 |
27.29 |
39.13 |
1/17/2018 |
34% |
11/17/2016 |
18.84 |
25.38 |
1/5/2017 |
42% |
1/14/2013 |
27.50 |
39.29 |
3/13/2013 |
86% |
1/25/2011 |
7.99 |
14.91 |
5/20/2011 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 11 | 0 | 3 |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 20 - max.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.
Bear Side - Large list of shorts Friday with some interesting plays. Bears can be venturesome.
TTD's short from Thursday was Caesarstone Ltd. (CSTE) at $19. Friday, it declined to $18.70 and is working well for bears.
IPHS, based in Cranbury, N.J., produces food ingredients. Annual revenues: $722 million. IPHS's stock falls sharply Friday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, IPHS is trading 141,596 shares. Its average daily volume is 170,000 shares.
IPHS's stock fell steadily from $42.07 to $39 during the session. It was unable to mount any kind of a rally.
Tape Action
IPHS tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from$40.62 in the morning to as low as $39 Friday.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 10,000 shares crossed the tape at $39.68.
That was down from the prior block trade at $40.31 on 1,000 shares.
Business
IPHS makes specialty ingredients for the food, health, nutrition and industrial markets.
It offers a range of product categories, such as asphalt, catalyst, fertilizer salts, liquid phosphate, phosphate salt, phosphoric acid, polyphosphoric acid, sodium bicarbonate, and food blends.
The company's blends ingredients to help customers products that are tasty, healthy, nutritious and economical.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 9% increase in net to $2.70 a share from the $2.46 the year before.
Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to be up just 1% to 60 cents a share from the 59 cents the year before.
Charts:
IPHS's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from around $50 back in October to near $41. Friday, the stock cuts below key technical support.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting IPHS for a decline to $32 a share within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $41.
Suitability: Average Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bearish. IPHS rose just 4 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bullish. IPHS rose an average of 1.9% in March and 0.4% in April the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IPHS - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)