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Ticker Tape Digest

Monday, March 24, 2008

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 15

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side -  Good number of breakouts with several good growth stocks moving higher. Bulls be venturesome.   

Long- term Environment for bulls:  Bearish

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) - 32.97, up 2.24 - Breakpoint 31.40

Quarterly Profit Growth to Accelerate, TTD Sees Move to 40

   URBN, based in Philadelphia, sells clothes through some 200 stores. Annual revenues: $1.4 billion. URBN breaks out from a seven-week flat base today and nears a new high. The stock is at $32.97. Its all-time high is $33.77. A push through that would make the stock more bullish. So far today, URBN is trading 6 million shares. Its average daily volume is 5 million shares.

  The stock got off to a bullish start  in the morning. TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 43,200 shares crossing on a modest up tick to $33.05 from the prior trade at $33.04.

 The action showed strong institutional buying interest in the stock.

  TTD's performance chart of URBN versus the S&P 500 (see below) shows URBN has been performing very well this year. It was in early January that URBN showed very good performance against the market.

  For the past 12 months, URBN is up about 14%, while the S&P 500 is down about 5%.

  URBN sells merchandise through three brands: Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, and Free People. Most of its sales come from the retail segment, which includes its 215 stores, catalogs, and Internet. The Urban Outfitters brand accounts for 50% of sales, Anthropologie 40%, and the Free People 10%.

  TTD's long-term chart shows URBN now challenging its high back in 2005. The stock has been a great performer the past eight years.

  URBN's daily chart shows the breakout today which comes with a widening of the spread (range from high to low). That is bullish showing ease of price movement.

  The stock moved higher in the prior session with a good expansion in volume. Its accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is working higher again. That is encouraging for bulls.

  The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bullish.

  URBN should show an acceleration in quarterly earnings growth. Analysts forecast a 25% rise in net for the fiscal first quarter ending April 30 and a 35% gain in the fiscal second quarter.

  For the fiscal year ending January 2009, the Street looks for a 25% gain in net to $1.18 a share from 94 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  27 which is reasonable given the earnings growth outlook.

  For the recently reported fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31, URBN posted a 50% gain in net.  Sales climbed 27%. Comp sales at Urban sores were up 18%.

  Strategy Opinion: URBN is acting strong and trending higher. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 40 within  a few months. A protective stop can be placed near 30. TTD rates URBN a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Columbia Acorn Z fund with a 2.9% stake. It has held its position steady. The largest buyer lately was 4-star rated Calamos Growth Fund which purchased 1.2 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were heavy buyers in recent months using stock options. They turned around sold. Currently, 22 analysts follow the stock, 18 have a buy, down from 20 three months ago.

  Stock Performance Chart for One Year versus the S&P 500 index.

TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Urban Outfitters Inc.  (URBN)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES  
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES  
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 14 0 0

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


Charts of Breakout Stocks

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 3

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side - Only a few breakdown plays today as market rises sharply. Bears be watchful.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Cambrex Corp. (CBM) - 7, off 1.01

Hit on Product Recall, TTD Sees Drop to 5

  CBM, based in East Rutherford, N.J., makes chemical products used in a variety of applications. Annual revenues: $253 million. CBM falls sharply today on heavy volume. It disclosed that its earnings would be impacted by a product recall. TTD sees potential for more on the downside. So far today CBM is trading 470,160 shares, double its normal daily average daily volume of 234,000 shares.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows CBM getting off to a bearish start in the morning. A block of  16,600 shares crossed the tape on a big down tick to $6.97 from the prior trade at $7.24.

  The company's human health unit makes ingredients that are used in a number of over-the-counter and prescription drugs.

Its bioproducts division makes cell culture and endotoxin detection products. Its biopharma division is engaged in handling contract biopharmaceutical manufacturing..

CBM said one of its customers is recalling one of their products for which Cambrex currently supplies the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API).

CBM said based on information provided to date, the recall decision is not linked in any way to Cambrex's performance as the manufacturer of the API.

It said while the event may materially affect CBM's 2008 performance, until the customer has resolved the issue, it is unknown what the impact will be. CBM said it will monitor the situation and update its 2008 guidance, if necessary, when it has enough information to do so.

TTD's daily chart shows the breakdown in the stock as a "gap drop." That is bearish. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is very bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a down trend that shows selling pressure is heavy. TTD is targeting CBM for a drop to 5 within a few months. We see the technical deterioration in the stock as the key to the news.


TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)