Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - March 25,  2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Monday - March 25, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  2

Quality of Breakouts -  Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -   Bulls be conservative only two breakouts Monday.

Stock market  -  Market averages The daily Dow and S&P 500 are now bearish. The Nasdaq daily and weekly and monthly averages holding bullish.

Comment -  TTD suggests bulls be watchful of all positions. The stock market is now in a long-term basing pattern.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Monday - YRD and CMCM,

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Mitek Systems Inc. (MITK) - 12.53, up 0.77 - Breakpoint 11.93

Net To Jump 31% in Fiscal 2019 (Sept.), TTD Targets 16

  MITK, based in San Diego, Ca., sells mobile capture and identity verification software solutions. Annual revenues: $63.6 million. MITK's stock breaks out from an 11-week, flat base. The move carries the stock to a seven-year high.

  So far today, MITK is trading a heavy 1.4 million shares, almost triple its average daily volume of 405,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted MITK as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.

  MITK's stock cleared its upside resistance line in the morning.

  In the afternoon, the stock drove higher and closed near its peak for the day.

  The stock's strong finish bodes well for a follow through move.

   Tape Action

  MITK's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $11.75 in the morning to as high as $12.53 near the close.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block 15,400 shares crossed the tape at $11.95. That was up from the prior block at $11.75 on 66,000 shares.

  After the NYSE close a block of 68,000 shares crossed the tape at $11.75.

  That was followed by a block of 1,000 shares at $12.60.

   Business

  MITK's technology allows users to remotely deposit checks, open accounts, get insurance quotes, pay bills, as well as verify their identity by taking pictures of various documents with their camera-equipped smartphones and tablets instead of using the device keyboard.

Its technology uses algorithms to correct image distortion, extract relevant data, route images to their desired location and process transactions.

 Its technology processes images of documents in various ways.

The Company's products include Mobile Verify, Mobile Fill, Mobile Docs, Mobile Deposit and Commercial Mobile Deposit Capture. Its mobile technology solutions are provided in two parts: a software development kit (SDK) for mobile capture and a software platform for image correction, detection, extraction and authentication.

  Charts

   MITK's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 62% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.

   Insiders have been getting stock options. The price was not disclosed.

  They have been sellers at $9 to $11 a share.

  MITK's long-term chart shows the stock hitting $12.96 back in 2012. The stock took a big dive down to $1.90 later that year.

  It has since been working higher with intermitten sharp pullbacks. It is in an overall long-term up trend now.   

  MITK's daily chart shows the stock climbing from  $8 back in November to a peak at $11.93 by January.

  The stock put down a double-bottom base.

  The breakout Monday is ideal coming with expanding volume and a widening of the daily spread.

  MITK's CCI momentum  indicator is solidly bullish.

  Earnings Outlook

  This fiscal year ending in September analysts are forecasting a 31% jump in net to 38 cents a share from the 29 cents the year before.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  33. TTD sees that as reasonable.

Looking out to fiscal 2020 ending in September, the Street is forecasting a 46% surge in net to 56 cents a share from the anticipated 38 cents this fiscal year.

  Profits for the fiscal second quarter ending in March are expected to decline 17% to 5 cents a share from the 6 cents the year before.

  However, in the fiscal third quarter ending in June, the Street looks for an 83% jump in net to 11 cents a share from the 6 cents the year  before.

  Three analysts follow the stock.

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting MITK for a move to $16 off this breakout.

A protective stop can be placed near $11.50.

Intermediate-Term Rating:  Above Average.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish -  MITK scored some good gains off some of its recent breakouts. The stock is in an up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bearish -  MITK rose 4 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Bullish. -  MITK averaged a gain of 14.1% in April and a gain of 5.3% in May the past several years. 

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 7

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Small list of shorts but some interesting plays for aggressive bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) - 17.70

Loss Seen For This Year and NEXT, TTD Sees Drop to 15

   ASMB, based in Carmel, Indiana, is a biotech firm working on treatments for hepatitis. Annual revenues: $14.8 million. ASMB's stock falls sharply Monday and undercuts key technical support.

  So far today, ASMB is trading 434,408 shares. Its average daily volume is 334,776.

  TTD sees more on the downside.

  ASMB's stock fell sharply in the morning and undercut key technical support at $18.25. The stock fell to an intraday low of $16.77.

  ASMB then rallied to cut its loss. finishing at $17.70.

  Tape Action

  ASMB's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $18.22 in the prior session to as low as $17.02.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of  3,400 shares crossed the tape at $17.02.

  That was down from the prior block at $18.20 on 11,145 shares late on Friday.

  Near the close Monday a block of 24,058 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $17.70.

  That was down from the prior block at $17.71 on 3,000 shares.

  Business

  ASMB is developing two platform programs, such as a class of oral therapeutics to treat hepatitis B virus infection and a class of oral synthetic live therapeutics to restore health to a dysbiotic microbiome.

It has discovered various core protein Allosteric Modulators which are small molecules that directly target and allosterically modulate the HBV core (HBc) protein.

 Earnings:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a loss of  $4.61 a share compared with a loss of $3.98 the year before.

  Going out to 2020, the Street predicts a loss of $5.18 a share.

  For the upcoming first quarter, the Street expects a loss of $1.07 a share compared with a loss of 80 cents the year before.

Charts:  

  ASMB's daily chart shows the stock cutting below key support. The stock has declined from a peak at $67 back in March of 2018.

  The past 12 months, ASMB has lost 68% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ASMB for a decline to $15 within the next few months, or sooner.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish.  -  ASMB rose 2 times after the past 5 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bullish.  - ASMB averaged a gain of 0.3% in April and a gain of 6.3% in May the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

 Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)