Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 25, 2019 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Tuesday - March 26, 2019
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Aggressive bulls can be venturesome.
Stock market - Market averages are bullish in all time sectors, except the daily Dow.
Comment - TTD sees the stock market in a basing pattern after the recent rebound rally from the December lows.
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Tuesday - SCVL, CONN, and KBH.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CWST - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CWST, based in Rutland, Vt., is a solid waste services firm. Annual revenues: $661 million. CWST's stock moves higher Tuesday and breaks out from its 5-week, flat base.
The move carries the stock to a 20-year high. The stock came public in 1997.
TTD sees more on the upside.
So far today, CWST is trading 233,160 shares. Its average daily volume is 282,000 shares.
CWST's stock moved higher in the morning and cleared it breakpoint line.
The stock trended sideways in midday, but then in the late afternoon drove higher to close near its high for the day. That is bullish.
Tape Action
CWST's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $35.34 in the prior session to as high as $36.82 Tuesday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 1,709 shares crossed the tape at $35.97.
That was up from the prior block at $35.34 on 15,200 shares late on Monday.
Near the close Tuesday, a block of 26,605 shares crossed at $36.74.
That was up from the prior block at $36.14 on 5,500 shares.
Business
CWST trash disposal services to residential, commercial, municipal and industrial customers.
It handles mostly solid waste collection and disposal, transfer, recycling and organics services.
The company has 32 solid waste collection operations, 46 transfer stations, 18 recycling facilities, nine landfills, four landfill gas-to-energy facilities and one landfill permitted to accept construction and demolition.
Charts
CWST's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 58% versus 4% gain for the stock market.
CWST insiders were recent buyers at $4 a share using stock options.
They were sellers at $29 to $35.
CWST's long-term chart shows the stock breaking out from a long-term basing pattern in 2016 at $7.90. The stock has since been trending steadily higher having made a fourfold move from its $7.90 breakout point in 2016.
CWST's daily chart shows the stock climbing from$25 back in December to a peak near $36 by February.
The stock put down a tight flat base.
The breakout looks solid coming with a widening of the day's daily spread.
Volume shows a modest pickup.
The stocks' CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 31% surge in net to 80 cents a share from the 61 cents the year before.
The stock carries a p/e ratio of 45. That is high.
Looking out to 2020, the Street is predicting a more modest 11% increase in net to 89 cents a share from the anticipated 80 cents this year.
Analysts expect a profit of 2 cents a share for the first quarter. There was no comparison with a year ago.
Looking out to the second quarter, the Street is predicting an 18% jump in net to 26 cents a share from 22 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CWST for a move to $43 within the next few months, or sooner.
A protective stop can be placed near $35.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average
Suitability: Conservative Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - CWST scored some solid gains off some of its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish - CWST rose 5 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Slightly Bullish. - CWST averaged a gain of 4.5% in April but a loss of 2.5% in May the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
21% |
8/3/2018 |
27.49 |
33.50 |
9/10/2018 |
27% |
11/2/2017 |
19.02 |
24.17 |
1/22/2018 |
14% |
3/23/2017 |
13.09 |
14.95 |
5/3/2017 |
36% |
9/23/2016 |
9.68 |
13.19 |
12/8/2016 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CABO - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FDS - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CCEP - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NFG - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts. Cruise ship stocks breaking down.
CCL, based in Miami, Fla., operates cruises around the world. Annual revenues: $18.9 billion. CCL's stock falls sharply Tuesday after reporting disappointing quarterly earnings. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, CCL is trading 18.5 million shares, five times its average daily volume of 3.7 million shares.
CCL came in with net for the first quarter ended February 29 of 48 cents a share. That was down from the 54 cents the year before.
The company also lowered its earnings outlook for fiscal 2019 ending in November.
TTD highlighted CCL as a short at our midsession video show on the Web.
CCL's stock fell sharply in the morning and undercut key technical support.
The stock worked lower the rest of the day touching an intraday low of $51.08 in the afternoon. The stock lifted slightly late in the afternoon.
Tape Action
CCL's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $56.65 in the prior session to as low as $51.20 Tuesday.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 70,576 shares crossed at $52.69.
That was down from the prior block late on Monday when a block of 21,983 shares crossed at $56.65.
Business
CCL provides cruise vacations throughout the world.
The company's North America segment includes Carnival Cruise Line, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises and Seabourn.
Earnings:
This fiscal year ending in November the Street has been predicting an 11% increase in net to $4.73 a share from the $4.26 the year before.
CCL said Tuesday that net for the fiscal year should now be $4.50 to $4.80 a share.
Charts:
CCL's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower and cutting below key support. The stock has been trending lower since peaking $72.70 earlier this year.
CCL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 22% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CCL for a decline to $45 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $54.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. - CCL rose 4 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bearish. - CCL averaged a decline of 3.5% in April but a gain of 2.2% in May the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CCL - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)