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Ticker Tape Digest

Thursday, March 27, 2008

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side -   Very few breakouts today s market declines. Bulls be conservative.

Long- term Environment for bulls:  Bearish

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Badger Meter Inc. (BMI) - 47.02, up 2.92 - Breakpoint 46

Profits to Spurt 86% in 1st Quarter, TTD Sees Move to 56

  BMI, based in Milwaukee, Wis., makes flow measurement and control systems for industrial and utility markets. Annual revenues: $235 million. BMI, traded on the AMEX, breaks out today from a 14-week, cup-and-handle base to hit an all-time high. It has been one of the big long-term winners in this bull market on the Amex. So far today, BMI is trading 153,990 shares, double its normal daily volume of 78,200 shares.

  The stock is acting very strong showing a pattern of advancing on big up volume days.

  TTD's table shows the big block trades of the past few days. They are small blocks. What is interesting is to see the general pattern is for the price of the blocks to move higher. TTD sees that as encouraging that the bigger buyers are bidding the price up.

 BMI's products include water meters, automotive fluid meters and systems, small precision valves, electromagnetic meters, impeller flow meters, industrial process meters, and related accessories and instrumentation.

  Its customers are located throughout the world. The flow measurement and control technologies are developed both internally and with other technology companies. The products are used to measure and control the flow of liquids in a variety of applications.

  TTD's long-term chart of BMI shows the stock's sensational advance from 10 in 2004 to 46. The stock's long-term chart remains bullish.

  TTD's performance chart (see below) shows BMI appreciating 62% the past 12 months. That is much better than the S&P 500s 4% decline.

  BMI's daily chart shows the cup-and-handle base. The structure is well formed. The stock spent only a short time in the handle portion of the base. There was a modest contraction of volume near the lows.

  The stock's technicals are very bullish. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is strongly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is now in an up trend and making a new peak. That is good confirmation that the breakout has good chances to work.

  Near-term, BMI should be coming in with a strong first quarter. Analysts forecast net will jump 86% to 32 cents a share from 17 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 33 cents a share.

  TTD sees chances for an upside surprise. The past three quarters, BMI has surpassed the consensus estimate by 2 to 11 cents a share. The company is benefiting from strong sales of certain products, one being the Orion mobile radio frequency automatic meter reading system.

  For the year, BMI's earnings should rise 17% to $1.48 a share from $1.26 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  31. That is high.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD sees BMI as a good trading breakout play. We are targeting the stock for a move to 56 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 44, which is tight. We would look to take profits near the target. TTD rates BMI an average intermediate-term play. We are concerned about the high valuation.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. Several top rated funds are big holders. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated T. Rowe Price Small Cap Value Fund with a big 5% stake. It has held its position steady. Also the Fidelity Leveraged Company Stock Fund, 5-star rated, holds a 1.3% stake.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been light buyers using options. They have turned around sold. Four analysts follow the stock, one has a buy, the same as three months ago.

  Stock Performance Chart for One Year versus the S&P 500 index.

TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Badger Meter, Inc.  (BMI)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES  
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES  
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook     YES
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 13 0 1

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


Charts of Breakout Stocks

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 4

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side -  Just a few breakdown stocks today. Bears be conservative. Disk drive makers weak on broker group downgrade.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Covenant Transport Inc. (CVTI) - 5.55, off 1.27

Sees First Quarter Loss, TTD Sees Drop to 3.70

  CVTI, based in Chattanooga, Ten., provides truckload carrier services throughout the United States. Annual revenues: $713 million. CVTI's stock falls sharply today after the trucking firm forecast a wider than expected loss for the first quarter. So far today, volume is running at 266,837 shares, 13 times its normal daily volume of 20,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the stock getting hit early in the session. A big block of 25,800 shares crossed the tape on a modest down tick to $5.50 from the prior trade at $5.51 a share. The action showed heavy selling into the bearish news.

  CVTI provides long-haul freight service with temperature-controlled transportation..

 It also provides other services such as maintaining just-in-time-inventory and production-material-management schedules. It also does internet-based communications and electronic data interchange for use in accessing cargo positioning, billing information, and tendering loads.

  The company said it expects a first quarter loss of 40 to 50 cents a share due increased diesel fuel costs. The Street was expecting a loss of just 16 cents a share.

  For the year, analysts projected a loss of 18 cents a share compared with a loss of 74 cents a year ago. That loss estimate obviously will be boosted.

  TTD's daily chart shows CVTI's stock in a clear down trend. It tried to form a bottom around 7. However, that has failed. The decline on heavy volume means good chances for more on the downside. TTD is targeting CVTI for a drop to 3.70 within the next few months or sooner. The stock has the potential to crash. CVTI is a very good short play for aggressive bears.


TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)