Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday - March 27,  2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Wednesday - March 27, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  8

Quality of Breakouts -  Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -   Large list of breakouts, but very selective. Bulls be conservative.

Stock market  -  Market averages are bullish in all time sectors, except for the daily Dow which is bearish.

Comment -  TTD sees the stock market in a trading range and working lower.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Wednesday -  AFMD, CTEK, UNF and LULU.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Clarus Corp. (CLAR) - 12.97, up 0.81 - Breakpoint 12.67

Net To Climb 25% This Year, TTD Targets 16.50

  CLAR, based in Salt Lake City,  formerly Black Diamond, Inc., makes outdoor equipment backpacking and skiing. Annual revenues: $212 million. CLAR's stock drives sharply higher Wednesday and breaks out from its five-week, flat base.

  The move carries the stock to a five-year high.

  TTD sees more on the upside.

  So far today, CLAR is trading a heavy 608,331 shares, about six times its average daily volume of 106,000 shares.

CLAR's stock broke out in the morning and reached an intraday high in the early afternoon at $13.10.

The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day.

 Tape Action

  CLAR's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  The price for its blocks climbed from $11.85 in the prior session to as high as $13.04 late on Wednesday.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 4,500 shares crossed the tape at $12.20 in the prior session, up from the prior block at $11.85 on 27,028 shares.  

  Near the close a block of 11,841 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $12.97.

  That came on an up tick from the prior trade at $12.96 on 444 shares.

  Business

   CLAR - through its ownership of Black Diamond Equipment, Ltd. - makes outdoor performance equipment and apparel for climbing, mountaineering, backpacking, skiing and recreation.

Its principal brands include Black Diamond and PIEPS.

  The company sells jackets, shells, pants and bibs; rock-climbing equipment, such as carabiners, protection devices, harnesses, helmets, and ice-climbing gear.

 CLAR  also sells skis, ski poles, ski bindings, ski skins, and ski safety products, including avalanche airbag systems, avalanche transceivers, shovels and probes.

 Charts

  CLAR's performance chart shows the stock appreciating 84% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyers $4 to $5 a share.   They were sellers this year at $10.83.

  CLAR's long-term chart shows the stock reaching a peak at 15.15 in 2013. However, the stock fell sharply down to $3.80 in 2015.

  Since then, though, CLAR has been working steadily higher. It is in position to challenge its peak back in 2013.  

  CLAR's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $9 in December to a peak near $12 in March.

  The stock then formed a small flat base.

  The breakout comes on strongly with a widening of the spread and big expansion in volume.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.

   Earnings Outlook

 This year, analysts are forecasting a 25% jump in net to 80 cents a share from 64 cents the year before.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 16. TTD sees that as reasonable.

 Looking out to 2020, the Street is projecting an 18% increase in net to 94 cents a share from the anticipated 80 cents this year.

  Profits for the first quarter are expected to surge 31% to 17 cents a share from the 13 cents the year before.

  Then in the second quarter, net is projected to be off 11% to 8 cents a share from the 9 cents the year before.   

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting CLAR for a move to $16.50 within the next few months, or sooner.

A protective stop can be placed near $11.90.

Intermediate-Term Rating:  Average

Suitability:   Aggressive Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish -  CLAR  scored some massive gains off some of its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish -  CLAR rose 4 times after the past 5 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Bullish. -  CLAR averaged a gain of  5.9% in April and a gain of 2.8% in May the past several years. 

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 8

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side -  Large list of shorts Wednesday. Bears can be venturesome.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

At Home Group Inc. (HOME) - 18.20

Profits Disappoint, TTD Sees Drop to 14.20

  HOME, based in Palno, Tex., sells home decor products. Annual revenues: $951 million. HOME's stock falls sharply Wednesday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, HOME is trading 12.7 million shares, 13 times its average daily volume of 890,000 shares.

  HOME's breakdown was triggered when HOME reported net for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31 of 47 cents a share, down from 50 cents the year before.

  The 47 cents was below  the Street estimate of 48 cents.

  HOME's stock gapped lower in the morning and undercut key support.

  The stock then rallied to $19 and then trended sideways the rest of the day.

   Tape Action

  HOME's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $22.85 in the prior session to as low as $17.24 Wednesday.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 82,000 shares crossed the tape at $19.82.

  That was down from the prior block at $20 on 38,600 shares.

   Business

  HOME operates home decor superstores.

 The company offers over 50,000 stock keeping units in its  stores.

  Home's store base consists of 115 format stores in 29 states.

 Earnings:

  This fiscal year ending in January of 2020 analysts are forecasting an 18% decline in net to $1.07 a share from the $1.29 the prior fiscal year.

  For the fiscal first quarter ending in April, analysts are predicting a 39% drop in net to 19 cents a share from the 31 cents the year before.   

Charts:  

  HOME's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower to $18.20 on big volume. The move resumes HOME's down trend.

  HOME's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 42% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting HOME for a decline to $14.20 within the next few months or sooner.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response -  Neutral - HOME rose 5 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bullish. -  HOME averaged a gain of 12.7% in April  and a gain of 2.7% in May the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)