Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Wednesday, March 28

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance - Wednesday, March 28

Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday - March 28, 2012

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3

Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side -  Just 3 breakouts and two are laggards. Bulls be patient and watchful.  Stock market holds in up trend but momentum slowing.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Bullish

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - March 28

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) - 25.50, up 0.65 - Breakpoint 24.31

Homebuilder Stock Making Comeback, TTD Targets 31

  TOL, based in Horsham, Pa., builds homes. Annual revenues: $1.5 million. TOL's stock clears a nine-week flat base today. The move carries the stock to a 3-year high. Homebuilding stocks are cyclical plays that were knocked down hard during the bear market. They are now on the recovery trail and TOL is a leading player. So far today, TOL is trading 5.2 million shares. Its average daily volume is 2.9 million shares.

  TTD highlighted TOL as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.

  Although, the stock is not a leader in the stock market, TTD sees TOL as a good cyclical play now on the upswing.

  TOL's 60-minute chart shows the stock climbing above its breakpoint again. The key will be for the stock to follow through on the upside.

   TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 5,000 shares crossed the tape at $24.70. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $24.49, on 19,044 shares.

 Near the close Wednesday, another bullish block crossed with 9,200 shares at $25.

 TOL builds and arranges financing for single-family detached and attached homes in middle and high income residential communities in thirteen states and five regions around the country.

  The communities are generally located on land the company has developed.  Due to the poor economic conditions during the early 1990's, TOL. was able to acquire a number of fully approved parcels and often improved subdivisions.

  TOL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 22% versus an 8% gain for the S&P 500 index.

  TOL's long-term chart shows TOL soaring from 8 in 2003 to a peak of  58.67 in 2005. The stock then went into a bear market and hit a low in 2008. However, it has now just begun to move up from its long-term bottoming pattern.

  TOL's daily charts shows the stock rising from 14 in October to 25. The stock continues to hold nicely above its rising 50-day moving average line.

  The breakout today comes with a good expansion in volume.

  The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend, although in recent weeks it has leveled off. The AD line does not show any unusual selling pressure.

  This fiscal year ending October 30, analysts forecast a profit of 33 cents a share compared with a loss of 5 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  75. That is reasonable given the earnings outlook.

  Going out to fiscal 2013 ending in October, analysts look for a 132% jump in net to 77 cents a share from 33 cents anticipated for fiscal 2012.

  For the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending April 30, the Street expects a profit of 3 cents a share compared with a loss of 6 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 10 cents a share. So some are looking for a pretty good quarter.

  Going out to the fiscal third quarter ending July 30, earnings are projected to hit 13 cents a share, a 535% gain from the 2 cents a share a year before.

  The company has been expanding via acquisitions too. Late last year, it bought Seattle builder CamWest Development LLC.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TOL for a move to 31 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 23. TTD rates TOLL an average intermediate-term play dependent on a continued up turn in the housing market. Low interest rates will be a key to drive buyers into homes.

 Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Fidelity Growth Company Fund with a 4.7% stake. It was a recent buyer of 316,300 shares. Also, 5-star rated Fidelity OTC Fund is a holder of 0.75% of the stock. TOL has 167 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 77% of the stock.

  Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders have been buying via options at $10 to $11 a share. They have turned around and sold at $20 to $24 a share. Currently, 16 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, the same as three months ago.

 Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers

  Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

  Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 7

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side -  Breakdown list expands slightly as stock market declines broadly. Bears be selective and still conservative. TTD's short from Tuesday was Apollo Group Inc. (APOL) at 39.35. The stock has declined to 38.57 so far today and is working well for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Bill Barrett Corp. (BBG) - 25.95, down 0.78

Profits to Fall 45% This Year,  TTD Sees Drop to 21

  BBG, based in Denver, develops oil and natural gas in the Rocky Mountain area of the U.S. Annual revenues: $771 billion. BBG's stock declines to day and cuts below key technical support. The drop kicks in a resumption of BBG's down trend. So far today, BBG is trading 611,725 shares. Its average daily volume is 1.3 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  TTD highlighted BBG as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.

  The stock moved lower in the morning and hit an intraday low of 25.65. The stock then bounced up a bit and trended sideway around 26 the rest of the day.

  The stock's tape action shows the price for the recent big block trades declining from $27.87 to as low as $26.62 recently.

  A key bearish block recently was 12,000 shares crossing at $26.62, down from the prior block at $27.26.

  BBG has  projects in nine basins in the Rocky Mountains

  This year analysts forecast a 45% drop in BBG's net to 98 cents a share from $1.78 a year ago. Net for the upcoming first quarter should decline 38% to 25 cents a share from 41 cents a year ago.

  BBG's daily chart shows the stock trending lower below its 50-day moving average line. The breakdown today fits well with the bearish trend. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) shows clear selling pressure the past few months.

   Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting BBG for a decline to 21 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near  27.70.

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)