Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 25, 2019 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Thursday - March 28, 2019
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 11
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Large list of breakouts with some interesting plays. Aggressive bulls can be venturesome.
Stock market - Market averages are all bullish, except for the daily Dow.
Comment - TTD sees the stock market in a consolidation after its recent strong gain.
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Thursday - SAIC, MOV, STKS and ACN.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CRMT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CRMT, based in Bentonville, Ark., sells autos and provides financing. Annual revenues: $612 million. CRMT's stock moves higher Thursday and breaks out from its 6-week, cup-and-handle base.
The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. that is bullish.
TTD highlighted CRMT as a breakout at our mdisession video show on the Web. It was also featured recently as a stock to accumulate.
So far today, CRMT is trading 137,812 shares. Its average daily volume is 99,700 shares.
CRMT's stock gapped higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint line.
The stock then worked higher the rest of the day reaching an all-time high at $93.23. It gave a little ground late in the day.
Tape Action
CRMT's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $84.17 in the prior session to as high as $92.50 in the late afternoon.
A key bullish trade came late on Wednesday when a block of 2,772 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $2,772.
That was up from the prior block trade at $84.17 on 10,000 shares.
Business
CRMT operates America's Car Mart, Inc. and Colonial Auto Finance, Inc. The company tends to sell older used vehicles and provides financing.
The company operates 143 dealerships primarily in small cities throughout the South-Central U.S.
Its dealerships are operated on a decentralized basis.
Each dealership is responsible for buying - with the assistance of a corporate office buyer- and selling vehicles, making credit decisions, and collecting the installment contracts it originates. Dealerships also maintain their own records.
The Company has both regular and satellite dealerships.
Charts
CRMT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 82% versus a 5% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $21 to $45 a share. They also bought in the market at $67 to $83 a share.
They were sellers recently at $63 to $85 a share.
CRMT's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $23 in 2011 to a peak at $57 by 2015. The stock then went into a correction down to $19 in 2016. However, since then CRMT has climbed sharply.
CRMT's daily chart shows the stock's near-term cup-and-handle base.
The breakout is impressive coming with a gap move and a widening of the daily spread.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This fiscal year ending in April analysts are forecasting a 79% surge in net to $6.43 a share from the $3.60 the year before.
Profits for the fourth quarter are expected to climb 24% to $1.77 a share from the $1.43 the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.84 a share.
TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise. CRMT topped the consensus estimate the past four quarters by 53 cents a share, 48 cents, 34 cents and 44 cents. That is impressive.
For fiscal 2020 ending in April, analysts are forecasting an 11% rise in net to $7.12 a share from the $6.43 anticipated for fiscal 2019.
Profits for the fiscal first quarter ending in July are projected to be up a modest 9% to $1.67 a share from the $1.53 the prior year.
Four analysts follow the stock.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CRMT for a move to $115 after a breakout.
A protective stop can be placed near $86.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - CRMT scored some big gains off some of its recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bullish - CRMT rose 8 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Bullish - CRMT averaged a gain of 2.2% in April and a gain of 1.7% in May the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
7% |
2/14/2019 |
79.14 |
84.91 |
Still in play |
61% |
5/7/2018 |
52.37 |
84.50 |
8/21/2018 |
71% |
2/22/2018 |
49.16 |
84.50 |
8/21/2018 |
6% |
9/14/2017 |
40.76 |
43.45 |
10/26/2017 |
49% |
7/5/2016 |
27.55 |
41.20 |
10/19/2016 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Americas Car Mart Inc. (CRMT) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LULU - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VRNT - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CHD - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EDU - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts, but some interesting plays.
PTE, based in Salt Lake City, is the owner of patent applications and know-how related to regenerative medicine and tissue engineering. Annual revenues: $673,000. PTE's stock falls sharply Thursday and undercuts key technical support.
So far today, PTE is trading 935,692 shares, almost double its average daily volume of 500,000 shares.
TTD sees more on the downside.
PTE's stock fell sharply in the afternoon and cut below key technical support.
Tape Action
PTE's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $11.90 in the prior session to as low as $9.83 in the afternoon.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 5,700 shares crossed the tape at $11.76.
That was down from the prior block at $11.90 on 15,500 shares in the prior session.
Business
PTE seeks to develop and obtain regulatory approval for technology that will utilize a patient's own tissue substrates for the regeneration of skin, bone, muscle, cartilage, fat, blood vessels and nerves.
The company's PolarityTE platform simplifies regeneration and allows cells to function naturally.
The platform can be applied across all cells, tissues and composite structures. The Company focuses on various products, including SkinTE, OsteoTE, AngioTE, MyoTE, CartTE, AdiposeTE and NeuralTE.
Earnings:
This fiscal year ending in October analysts are forecasting a loss of $4.14 a share compared with a loss of $4.86 the year before.
Looking out to fiscal 2002 ending in October, the Street is forecasting a loss of $3.68 a share.
For the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending in January, analysts expect a loss of $1.04 a share compared with a loss of $2.31 the year before.
Charts:
PTE's daily chart shows the stock cutting below support with a pick up in volume. The move undercuts support.
The stock went through a 1-for-7 reverse split in 2014.
PTE's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 20% versus a 4% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PTE for a decline to $8 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $10.60.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. - PTE decline after reporting just one earnings statement.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bullish. PTE averaged a decline of 1% in April but a gain of 28.4% in May the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PTE - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)