By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 17
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list large with some good looking plays. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market surges higher on Federal Reserve news.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TXRH - ABOVE AVERAGE
TXRH, based in Louisville, Ky., operates full-service restaurants. Annual revenues: $1.8 billion. TXRH's stock breaks out Tuesday from six-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. The stock is a leader in the restaurant sector.
TTD featured TXRH as a breakout back in February. It based and now has broken out to the upside again. That is very impressive action.
So far today, TXRH is trading a heavy 985,806 shares, double its average daily volume of 494,000 shares.
TXRH's stock broke out in the morning. (see 10-minute chart).
The stock reached an intraday peak of 43.76 in the afternoon.
The stock then trended sideways into the final bell.
TXRH's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing sharply from $41.90 on Monday to as high as $43.60 Tuesday.
A key block trade came in the morning when a massive block of 31,067 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $41.95.
That was up from the prior block trade at $41.90 on 4,200 shares.
Then near the close a big block of 49,978 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $43.60.
That was up from the prior block trade at $43.32 on 3.427 shares.
That showed aggressive institutional buying.
TXRH runs the Texas Roadhouse restaurants.
It also provides supervisory and administrative services for other franchise
The company operates 450 restaurants in 49 states, as well as in 4 countries. The restaurants feature informal steak and chicken dishes.
TXRH's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 19% versus a 3% decline by the S&P 500 index.
Insiders have been heavy buyers of the stock. (see green bars on chart)
TXRH's long-term chart shows the stock climbing to $16.05 in 2007, the top in the prior bull market. .
However, the stock got burned during the bear market falling down to $4.09 by late 2008.
The stock, then, turned and rallied steadily the past several years participating well in the bull market. The push to a new high is an eightfold move from the bear market low.
TXRH's daily chart shows the stock gapping out of base in February.
The breakout was impressive coming with expanding volume.
TXRH then formed a tight flat base and today breaks out with a pick up in volume.
The base was set up above a rising 50-day moving average line. That is bullish.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line is in a strong up trend. That shows good underlying buying.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 24% increase in net to $1.70 a share from $1.37 in 2015.
Analysts recently lifted their year estimate.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 24. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to 2017, the Street expects a 15% increase in net to $1.95 a share from the anticipated $1.70 this year.
Quarterly profit growth this year will show an acceleration. That is very bullish.
Net for the first quarter is expected to rise 18% to 54 cents a share from 46 the prior year.
The highest estimate is at 56 cents a share.
Net for the second quarter should jump 35% to 40 cents a share from 30 cents a year before.
TXRH does tend to be erratic with its earnings. So, the stock needs to be watched closely. (see table)
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TXRH for a move to 54 off this breakout.
A protective stop can be placed near 40.
TTD rates TXRH an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is the 4-star rated VA CollegeAmerica Amcap 529F Fund with a big 6.5% stake. It has held its position steady.
A key fund buyer recently was the 4-star rated Glenmede Small Cap Equity Fund which purchased 75,488 shares. It has a 1.2% stake.
TXRH has 70 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 88% of the stock and insiders have 9%.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Not much activity lately.
Currently, 22 analysts follow the stock, 8 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
TXRH has a book value of $9.55 a share.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Texas Roadhouse Inc. - (TXRH)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CACI - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HSIC - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LRCX - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WDFC - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks as stock market rallies off Federal Reserve comments. Bears be conservative. Stock market now bumping up against overhead resistance.
PBYI, based in Los Angeles, develops drugs to treat cancer. Annual revenues: N/A. PBYI's stock falls sharply after the company decided to postpone seeking approval of a drug. So far today, PBYI is trading a heavy 4.2 million shares, six times its average daily volume of 682,000 shares.
TTD highlighted PBYI as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
PBYI met with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to submit a NDA for the approval of Neratinib, a treatment of extended adjuvant breast cancer that has previously been treated with a trastuzumab-containing regimen.
However, the company said it wants to move the submission date to a later in 2016.
The stock fell in the morning and touched an intraday low of 25.20 in the morning.
It then rose slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day.
PBYI's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $35.36 in the prior session to as low as $25.75 Tuesday.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 27,006 shares crossed the tape at $28.
That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $35.36 on 5,281 shares.
PBYI is developing treatments for various forms of cancer. Its drug candidates include PB272 (neratinib (oral)) and PB272 (neratinib (intravenous) that are in Phase-III and Phase-II clinical trials to treat early stage breast cancer, metastatic breast cancer, non-small cell lung cancer.
This year, analysts are forecasting PBYI will show a loss of $8.39 a share compared with a loss of $7.45 the prior year. Going out to 2017, they project a loss of $7.60 a share.
PBYI's daily chart shows the stock falling from 80 earlier this year to around 33. The stock then tried to rally. However, it has since rolled over and cut through near-term support.
The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower showing clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PBYI for a decline to 22.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 28.60.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PBYI - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)