By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7
Overall Quality of Breakouts - ABOVE AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list shows some good looking plays. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market falls back. Quarter ends and now earnings will be coming and they will be important.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TREX - ABOVE AVERAGE
TREX, based in Winchester, Va., makes wood and plastic products for decking. Annual revenues: $392 million. TREX's stock breaks out today from a five-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. So far today, TREX is trading 545,093 shares. Its average daily volume is 367,000 shares.
TREX's stock worked higher in the morning and finally cut across its breakpoint line (see 10-minute chart)
The stock then reached an intraday peak of 55.13.
TREX then pulled back slightly and trended sideways. It showed good buying near the close. That is bullish.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $52.06 in the prior session to as high as $54.55.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 3,000 shares crossed the tape at $53.55.
That was up from the prior block at $52.16 on 1,657 shares.
TREX makes wood/plastic composite products, and accessories for the residential and commercial decking, market.
It offers Trex Transcend, Trex Enhance, and Trex Select protective shells for protection against fading, staining, and scratching and Trex Hideaway, a hidden fastening system for grooved boards.
The company also provides railing products, such as Trex Transcend Railing for use with Trex decking products and other decking materials.
TREX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 50% versus an 11% gain for the S&P 500 index.
One can also see heavy insider buying in February when TREX reported earnings. (Green bar on performance chart)
TREX's long-term chart shows the stock falling to a low of $2.67 in 2007 due to the bear market. The tock was as high as $27 back in 2004.
The stock then gradually worked its way higher over the next four years. Then in 2012, TREX started its push higher and has since surged to 54. The stock had a 2-for-1 stock split in 2014.
TREX's daily chart shows the stock breaking out from a base in February at 42.
It climbed quickly to 53. Then, TREX consolidated and formed another base.
Today, it breaks out again with a good widening of the daily spread (range from high to low) and good volume.
TREX's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation-distribution line (bottom of chart) has broken out to the upside too. That shows good underlying buying.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 39% jump in TREX's earnings to $1.76 a share from $1.27 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 30. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to 2016, analysts predict a 26% leap in net to $2.22 a share from the anticipated $1.76 this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should surge 41% to 51 cents a share from 37 cents a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 54 cents a share.
TTD sees chances for an upside earnings surprise. TEX topped the Street the past three quarters.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, analysts expect a 33% gain in net to 61 cents a share from 46 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TREX for a move to 65 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 52, which is tight.
TTD rates TREX a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund buyer recently was the 5-star rated Lord Abbett Developing Growth A Fund which purchased 98,905 shares. It has a 3.6% stake.
The largest fund holder is Baron Growth Retail Fund with a 5.2% stake. The 4-star rated fund has kept its position steady.
TREX has 31.7 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 89% and insiders 9%.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers as low as $6 to $8 a share. They were recent sellers around $51.
Right now, 8 analysts follow the stock and 4 have a buy, down from 5 three months ago. TREX has a book value of $3.58 a share
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Trex Co. - (TREX)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CBPX - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MERC - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ESRX - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DST - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today, but some interesting plays. Stock market holds up trend even though market declines on Tuesday. TTD's short from Monday as Biodelivery Sciences (BDSI) at 10.62. Tuesday, BDSI has declined to 10.47 and is working well for bears.
ATHN, based in Watertown, Mas., provides internet services for doctors. Annual revenues: $753 million. ATHN's stock falls today and cuts below key technical support. So far today, ATHN is trading 280,328 shares. Its average daily volume is 325,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
ATHN's stock fell in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 118.10.
ATHN's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $119.75 to as low as $118.39.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 2,864 shares crossed the tape at $119.05.
That was down from the prior block trade at $119.66 on 1,429 shares.
ATHN provides internet-based business services for physicians. The company's service offerings are based on web-practice management and electronic medical record software.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 48% decline in earnings to 22 cents a share from 43 cents a year ago.
For the first quarter, analysts expect a loss of 11 cents a share compared with a loss of 8 cents a year ago.
ATHN's daily chart shows the stock trending lower the past few months. Today, it cuts below support. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a down trend indicating clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ATHN for a decline to 100. A protective stop buy can be placed near 123.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ATHN - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)