Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Friday, March 31, 2017 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 20, 2017 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Friday - March 31, 2017
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 9
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Some new names hit the breakout list. Bulls can be venturesome.
Stock market - Most averages holding near-term up trend. Seasonally, April and May have risen 100% of the time for the S&P the past five years. The average gain was 1% in April and 1.7%. in May.
Stock Market Trend
Based on 14-day M/A
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NPO - ABOVE AVERAGE |
NPO, based in Charlotte, N.C., makes industrial products such as sealants and wheel components. Annual revenues: $1.2 billion. NPO drives higher for the second straight session and breaks out from a four-month flat base. TTD sees more on the upside.
So far today, NPO is trading a heavy 433,412 shares, almost four times its average daily volume of 116,000 shares.
TTD highlighted NPO as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web.
NPO's stock moved steadily higher in the morning and reached an intraday peak in the early afternoon at $71.76.
The stock then backed off slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
NPO's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $69.47 in the prior session to as high as $71.38 on Friday.
A key bullish trade came late on Thursday when a block of 33,078 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $69.73.
That was up from the prior block at $69.47 on 5,100 shares.
Then near the close Friday a block of 60,413 shares (duplicated) crossed at $71.16.
That was up from the prior block at $71.15 on 7,800 shares.
Business
NPO makes industrial products. It operates in three areas. Its sealing products unit includes: Garlock, which produces sealing products, Technetics, which makes metal seals and elastomeric seals, and Stemco LP, which makes heavy-duty truck wheel-end components.
The company's engineered products unit makes self-lubricating, non-rolling, metal polymer and engineered plastics.
NPO's power systems segment includes Fairbanks Morse business, which makes heavy-duty, medium-speed diesel, natural gas and dual fuel reciprocating products.
Charts
NPO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 23% versus the 15% gain for the stock market.
The past several months insiders were buyers at $46 to $47 a share. They also bought using stock options at $34 a share.
They were sellers at $57 to $65 a share.
NPO's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $13 back in 2009 to a peak at $80 in early 2014. The stock then went into an intermediate-term pull back to around $40. Since then it has rallied steadily. It is in position to attack its all-time high.
NPO's daily chart shows the stock climbing solidly from $55 in November to a peak near $69.
The stock then put down a flat base.
There was a shake out in February, but the stock fimed up.
NPO moved higher in the prior session and now on Friday it breaks out nicely with a pick up in volume.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 159% surge in net to $3.03 a share from $1.17 the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 23. TTD sees that as low given the current growth rate.
Looking out to 2018, the Street is calling for a 12% increase in net to $3.40 a share from the anticipated $3.03 this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to leap to 69 cents a share from a loss of 2 cents the year before.
For the second quarter, the Street projects a 63% leap in net to 98 cents a share from the 60 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting NPO for a move to $86 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 66.
TTD rates NPO a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of NPO's Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability: Breakout Success - Good. NPO has scored some good gains off its breakouts.
Probability: Earnings Response - Good. NPO has moved higher after 10 of its past 15 earnings reports.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Below Average. NPO has tended to decline modestly in April and May.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
19% |
11/10/2016 | 57.48 | 68.79 | 2/14/2017 |
1% |
4/26/2016 | 59.53 | 60.19 | 4/27/2016 |
7% |
2/20/2015 | 65.07 | 70.07 | 3/18/2015 |
32% | 1/10/2014 | 58.13 | 76.85 | 1/17/2014 |
17% | 7/5/2013 | 51.61 | 60.89 | 10/25/2013 |
25% | 1/2/2013 | 40.88 | 51.30 | 5/17/2013 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BIVV - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ICHR - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HPQ - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TCPC - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small lit of breakdown stocks Friday, but some interesting shorts in the medical sector.
TTD's short from Thursday was Worthington Industries (WOR) at $45.97. Friday, WOR declines to $45.09 and is working well for bears.
PTI, based in Cambridge, Ma., a biotech firm , working on treatments for various diseases, breaks hard to the downside Friday undercutting key technical support. The drop came after PTI reported a quarterly loss. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD featured PTI as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
So far today, PTI is trading a heavy 1.3 million shares, 10 times its average daily volume of 125,000 shares.
PTI reported a loss for the fourth quarter of $9.4 million versus a loss of $5.6 million the year before. Overall, the company had a loss for 2017 of $37 million.
PTI's stock moved lower in the morning and continued South into the early afternoon. It reached an intraday low $7.67.
The stock then trended sideways the rest of the afternoon.
Tape Action
PTI's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $11 to $7.70.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 9,700 shares crossed the tape at $9.89.
That was down sharply from the prior block at $10.89 on 5,714 shares.
Business
PTI is working on treatments for diseases caused by an imbalance in the proteostasis network, a set of pathways that control protein biosynthesis, folding, trafficking and clearance.
It has developed the Disease Relevant Translation (DRT) technology platform, a drug screening approach for identifying highly translatable therapeutics based on predictive and functionally pertinent phenotypic assays and disease relevant models.
Using this platform, it has identified a new class of small molecules, amplifiers that modulate proteins in the proteostasis network.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting PTI will show a loss of $2.24 a share compared with a loss of $2.06 the year before.
Going out to 2018, analysts predict a loss of $2.25 a share.
Charts:
PTI's daily chart shows the stock form a head-and-shoulder technical pattern. Friday, the stock gaps lower with big volume. The stock is clos to making a new all-time low. It needs to get below $5.55.
PTI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock declining 20% versus a gain of 15% for the stock market.
Insiders have been steady buyers from $7 to $13 recently. They are now "underwater."
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PTI for a decline to 6 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $8.40.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of WOR's Prior Performance:
Probability: Earnings - Favors Bears. Stock rose just 2 out of the past 5 earnings reports.
Probability: Seasonal - Favors Bears. April averaged a loss of 6.2%. Best declining months February, April, June and October.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PTI - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)